On those polls

Showing the Lib Dems coming 2 nd.

Had a quick look around (political betting, polling report) and nobody seems to think that it\’s a rogue poll. So, is Labour going to end up like it did in the Euros, coming third?

One thing I don\’t know: are the Lib Dems actually standing in every seat? Or are they concentrating their efforts and thus not actually capable of converting nationwide support into seats in Parliament?

5 comments on “On those polls

  1. Don’t know about the extent of LibDem coverage, but isn’t it a fact that the disposition of our constituencies favours Labour? If each of the ‘main’ parties got thirty per cent of the vote exactly and ‘others’ got ten per cent, then according to the BBC calculator the LibDems only get 100 seats whereas Labour gets 315 and the Conservatives 206 and ‘others’ 29. No wonder the British (or is that English?) don’t feel fairly represented – because they aren’t.

  2. I’m in a seat where the Conservative got over 51% of the vote last time although boundary changes mean that they would get around 48% this time if everyone voted the same way.

    That hasn’t stopped the LibDems from from standing and putting some effort in. I’ve just received their newsletter and they’ve included a lot of stuff about the local area and not just constituency wide stuff so it shows some work has been done despite needing a massive swing.

    PS Its all motherhood and apple pie – telling us what they think we want to hear. Apparently some have complained about the noise from the M40 so they reckon that is more important than High Speed Rail 2.

  3. It’s not so much the disposition of the seats but the fptp system itself, which simply favours geographically concentrated votes. So say the tories take 60 percent in all southern seats, libs 30 percent and lab 10 percent, and the reverse is true in the north. Nationally if equal no. Of seats in north and south then vote share nationally is con 35, lab 35, libs 30. But libs have no seats. Now increase lib share to 40 percent nationally. Still get no seats. Obviously this is simplified, but add in lower turnout in labour seats and most of your actual ‘bias’ is explained.

  4. The LibDems are standing in almost every seat outside of Northern Ireland where they campaign for the Alliance party. In England, the party has a tradition for standing down when there is a liberal independent candidate (eg in Kidderminster) who can win.

    The last election where the Liberals failed to present a full slate in every Great Britain seat would be 1979. The 1983 election was fought in conjunction with the SDP and post merger, all electors have had the opportunity to vote for a LibDem or independent liberal at general elections.

  5. Pingback: Why Lib Dems don’t do as well as other parties | afoe | A Fistful of Euros | European Opinion

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