Yes, Greece will default

At least, that\’s the view of experts in such matters.

I spent most of this afternoon attending a fascinating discussion looking at Greece from the perspective of emerging-market veterans who are used to sovereign debt default and restructurings. There was quite a lot of consensus on the panel, and not in a good way: everybody agreed that the bailout of Greece was only postponing the inevitable, and many people reckoned that it wasn’t going to postpone it very long: one pair of hedge fund managers in the audience reckoned that it would last about six months before the default finally happens.

3 comments on “Yes, Greece will default

  1. It would be rather more valuable to hear their views on which countries won’t default over the next five years or so.

  2. There is soft default through inflation (our route) and hard default. Eurozone countries will take the latter until the Euro breaks up (either by PIIGS leaving or by Germany & others adopting a New Euro, or Neuro).

  3. @dearime

    Well, if they told you that they wouldn’t be able to make a killing themselves, would they? 😉

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