So who thought Cameron wouldn\’t do this?

David Cameron has ruled out any referendum that could see Britain leave the European Union, insisting that the UK should remain a member of the union.

The same sort of wibble we\’ve had for a coupe of generations now. It\’s not quite right for us, problems,  our partners don\’t see it quite the way that we do. But we\’ve got to stay in so as to influence those 26 to 1 votes against us.

And it also makes Cameron a worse poitician than even I think he was. The biggest danger to any future majority is UKIP, on what, 8% or so? Peeling off the eurosceptics. Not enough to form a block in P, true, as with FPTP, but enough to kill a Tory majority.

9 comments on “So who thought Cameron wouldn\’t do this?

  1. There’s another factor in the next election which is that the LD vote will collapse and most of their vote will go to Labour (I think this could be permanent). They’ll retain seats where they’ve got them, but they won’t split the anti-Tory vote as much as they did.

  2. I’m not so sure I’d take much notice of what Cameron says, it’s what he does that matters.
    There have been increasing calls for a referendum recently, from circles it’s hard to dismiss as a lunatic fringe. I think it was approaching the point where his remaining silent on the matter was being regarded as acceptance of the possibility. From there to it being a necessity wouldn’t be a long way for the ball to roll & then he’s driven into a corner. It’s not just acceptance of a referendum, is it? Because the status quo doesn’t need one The concept of a vote to stay in to clear up the matter & move on has always been bollocks. The europhiles are too frit to risk it. Acceptance of a referendum is acceptance of the withdrawal position, even if argued against.
    Once the possibility of the UK leaving is on the table the whole of European politics changes. If UK goes who else might? If the crisis of confidence is bad now it’d become devastatingly worse. The Euro rescue deals’d have no credibility at all. It’d probably bring the whole house down.
    So the question is, does Cameron want to be fighting the next election over a European economic wasteland? Better to reject the referendum calls at this point & keep his powder dry.
    And we know politicians lie because their lips move. If there’s electoral advantage nearer the time he just reverses his position because circumstances have changed.

  3. We are not going to need a referendum, thankfully. The German politicians are going to cave in and pay for the PIGS in order to save the Euro, which is more important to the political class than the welfare of their voters, and demand (and get eventually) central control of budgets as a result.

    So the Eurozone is moving away from the UK. We don’t have to do anything, just standing still will eventually result in us having to reconsider our position. There is zero likelihood of us making the great leap forward of joining the Euro and accepting control of our budgets – the policy up to now has always been salami slicing – a bit of sovereignty lost here, a bit there. A huge jump like that is unthinkable. Even the most ardent europhiles must have noticed that the Euro has created more problems than it has solved. Selling the UK public on the chance to have the French and Germans telling us what we can and can’t tax and spend would be an interesting campaign. On top of that any referendum on joining a Federal eurozone would be on an active step forward vs the status quo. The status quo always has a great advantage in referneda – people hold on to nurse. Its just not going to happen.

    In 5-10 years time the UK will have a totally different relationship with the EU, a much looser, more trade oriented one, with less EU control over UK policy. Thank goodness.

  4. The NOs will lose a referendum if it is held within the next 2 years. I wonder what effect an independent Scotland would have on the remainder of the UK’s support for the EU though.

    And why do people still use eurosceptic when they mean EUsceptic?

  5. Can thoroughly endorse Jim’s final para.
    If they get a Federal Eurozone the first item on the agenda will be to destroy the £ sterling. Along with any other currencies outside. Status quo’s not sustainable. The sort of fiscal transfer needed cannot be seen to be done & the sort of dosh the UK would be haemorrhaging, propping this lot up, would be glaring.

  6. If, as it seems from the German cave-in, Germany is prepared to surrender to southern Europe and forgo years of genuine prosperity it is always possible that the stresses in the Euro will gradually diminish as Germany bleeds to death. Provided we take the opportunity presented we could, just maybe, improve our economy enough to make a slowed Europe and an accelerated UK look like a match.
    There are two historical pointers against this happening: a.) Meddlesome politicos and b.) our propensity to overpay ourselves. On reflection, these are both the same things.

  7. I agree it’s what Cameron does that’s important and in all areas he’s been a craven lickspittle to the EU (like so many before him), so why should we expect any difference now?

    I don’t see Germany caving in to the rest of the EU, the only explanation I’ve come up with for their delaying tactics is they consider the costs of the EU to be higher than the rewards so they’re dragging things out but I’m sure at the end they’ll say they did everything they could. Even if they did give the EU what they wanted how long could it last? There’s no one in the EU big enough to sustain the EU.

    The only way we’re getting a referendum is if/when the EU implodes rendering the whole thing pointless anyway.

  8. “they’re dragging things out ”
    A man stood before the King pleading for his life. He convinced the King, if given a year, he could teach the King’s horse to talk. As he walked from the audience chamber, a retainer asked him, did he really believe he could succeed. He replied “Who knows? But I have a year. The King may die. I may be forgiven. Or the horse may talk.”

  9. bloke in spain: I shall have to remember that, it’s a good version of the Scheherazade gambit.

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