A prediction about the Chinese leadership change

The political views of China\’s president-in-waiting Xi Jinping remain a mystery,

Quite possibly. But here\’s my prediction anyway.

Xi\’s family apparently owns a substantial stake in one of the major rare earth producers. Jiangxi.

I would therefore expect more \”consolidation\” of the industry, more \”management\” of output, in order to support prices. I expect Jiangxi to suffer a great deal less consolidation and management of output than other companies.

6 comments on “A prediction about the Chinese leadership change

  1. But isn’t it amazing that the political views of the man at the top of the world’s largest communist state are a mystery?

  2. Might we guess that the next president of a communist dictatorship is likely to be a communist?

    Maybe a bit speculative. Very inscrutable, these Chinese presidents.

  3. Might we guess that the next president of a communist dictatorship is likely to be a communist?

    Well, if he’s a multi-millionaire (which I think he is) then folk are entitled to speculate as to whether he is actually a communist or not.

  4. Emil: exactly, but it does generate speculation as to how much they believe in communism and how much they are pretending to in order to enjoy the trappings of power. It is the very fact that “communist” leaders tend to be materially very well off which generates newspaper articles querying their political beliefs.

  5. Tim Newman – “Well, if he’s a multi-millionaire (which I think he is) then folk are entitled to speculate as to whether he is actually a communist or not.”

    You can take the man out of the Party but you can never take the Party out of the man. Being a Marxist involves a set of opinions, yes, but it involves a lot more than that. It involves an overriding commitment to The Cause, a dislike of anyone disagreeing with you, a willingness to use force to settle political disagreements, a belief that politics is all their is to life – and above all, a belief that all that matters is power and the rest is just a side show by the ruling class to cover up their will to power.

    It is perfectly possible to cease to be a Marxist but that won’t make you a democrat or a liberal. Even if you become a Tory, you are still a very unliberal Tory – look at Alfred Sherman.

    So is Xi a Communist? Well he might not believe in Communism any more, but that doesn’t make him any less of a Marxist. The best comparison is with people like Putin or the kleptocrats of Central Asia. Communism is a Mark of Cain that cannot be removed. Or at least I would be hard pressed to think of a single case where it has been.

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