Further on Steve Walker\’s claims

The government’s latest statistics on some aspects of disability claimants does, of course, go up to the recent past. But the government’s statistics on the drop in claimants when Incapacity Benefit (IB) was replaced by Employment Support Allowance (ESA) only goes to 2008.

Sigh.

IB statistics go to Aug 2012.

They show a drop of 900,000 from 2010 t0 2012.

That was (and is) my ‘entire case’. If Mr Worstall is able to show that to be untrue, he should do so

8 comments on “Further on Steve Walker\’s claims

  1. There’s someone else who says that 900,000 figure is bollocks, or at least bollocks to say they left ESA rather than do the test. His point I think is that lots of people leave it any way and always have.

    http://lartsocial.org/shapps

  2. Steve Walker seems to be aiming for the title of poor mans George Moonbat. When you ask them for a source, they cite their own work. I really don’t think they get this independent, objective malarkey. Punctuation excised for WordPress reasons.

  3. Hi Steve, did you work out how to click on a link? How about starting by apologising for your original claim that the source data didn’t exist.

  4. It’s not even that, Richard. He’s now claiming, I think, his fourth version for why Shapps is a bastard. Shapps may indeed be a bastard but that doesn’t make Steve’s first argument (2009), 2nd argument (IB not ESA) or third (normal in and out flows) correct.

    Nor, even, necessarily this one. Which is a slight modification of the third.

  5. I think what Steve Walker is trying to say is that since IB was replaced by ESA, it’s a bit disingenuous to say that 900,000 actually left the system because of the extra scrutiny. He has muddied his argument a bit by not sticking to a point, but that is what I think he is trying to say.

  6. SBML,

    Yes, that would be a valid point. If we had a record of what Shapps had actually said. If we take the Torygraph:

    The 878,300 who decided not to have an official assessment of whether they were fit for work was more than a third of the total number of people claiming sickness-related benefits.

    You’ll note that this doesn’t mention IB or ESA at this point (the replacement is noted later in the article.)

    The conflation between sickness benefits in general and IB as a specific benefit comes from what Steve describes as “a slightly more honest news source – MSN News”. Which, indeed, says

    More than a third of people who were on incapacity benefit dropped their claims rather than complete a medical assessment, according to government figures.

    Of course, the statistics Steve links to (and are the 2009 / 2012 confusion) are for Disability Living Allowance. Which is neither ESA nor IB. And you can still claim it. In fact, it is a wholly different allowance. And you can claim it regardless of whether or not you are in work.

  7. The IB series shows a drop of 900,000 and the ESA series shows an increase of 800,000 over the same period, when ESA replaced Incapacity Benefit.

    So apparently one lefty is a bit careless in his reading of official data, but righties, as embodied by the Conservative Party, are lying scumbags. Why doesn’t Tim say so?

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