It is increasingly likely that hundreds of millions of people will be displaced from their homelands in the near future as a result of global warming. That is the stark warning of economist and climate change expert Lord Stern following the news last week that concentrations of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere had reached a level of 400 parts per million (ppm).
Massive movements of people are likely to occur over the rest of the century because global temperatures are likely to rise to by up to 5C because carbon dioxide levels have risen unabated for 50 years, said Stern, who is head of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change.
As the actual scientists continually downgrade the likely effects of climate change the propagandists keep upgrading their claims.
The estimates of climate sensitivity are being massaged down. We seem to be thinking that a doubling of CO2-e will lead to a 2 oC, 2.5 oC rise rather than the former possibilities of 4.5 and so on. And yet then we\’ve got people insisting that we\’re going to get 5 oC even as the estimates of the effect of CO2 fall.
Wouldn\’t it all be rather more interesting if those claiming to be presenting the scientific consensus were in fact doing so?
Purely as a personal opinion I think we\’re going to end up on A1T. Solar\’s going to get cheap enough that we\’ll all be using it as a matter of choice. And thus the problem simply goes away.
That is in there, as one of the possibilities, one of the scenarios that the whole system is built upon. And the A1 family has the merit of being the one based on pretty much the best forecasting system we have. That the future will be largely like the past. Economic growth in the 21 st century will be largely like it was in the 20th. Population growth similarly, as countries get richer they reach their fertility and thus demographic peaks. The carbon efficiency (ie, emissions per unit of GDP) increases just as it did in the 20th cent.
And then we add the T, which is effectively that solar becomes the energy generation system of choice purely on price grounds as technology advances. And we do indeed keep being told that this is imminent, a good decade or two before T assumes it will be.
Going back to those SRES scenarios I\’d say that that A1T is indeed the most likely one, given what we\’ve seen in the couple of decades since they were first laid out. And the joy of that is that A1T is one of the very few scenarios where climate change never does manage to become a large problem.
But here\’s a moment of joy for you. Fro the very little I\’ve seen about the revisions of the SRES for AR5 (ie, the next IPCC report) the A1 family is entirely dropped. Agreed that I\’ve seen very little of it but that\’s certainly the impression I\’ve got from what I have seen.