Regarding @RichardJMurphy\’s testable prediction of the state of the economy on 22 June 2013

Nope.

This gamble will fail. Give it three years and, as I predicted on Radio 2 today, we’ll be seeing unemployment at 4 million, almost no cut in the deficit and the coalition government a distant memory after its chaotic disintegration as backbenchers fled its ranks. Furthermore, a new government will be announcing a budget to tackle the mess that George Osborne has left.

Well, nope unless the next 24 hours is going to be really very interesting indeed.

 

My thanks to Peter Cairns for reminding me of this.

18 comments on “Regarding @RichardJMurphy\’s testable prediction of the state of the economy on 22 June 2013

  1. Excellent find. You should keep a diary of anything he says with a date, it’d be almost publishable.

  2. Ouch!

    But rest assured, it will be brushed off with nairy a stutter in the long march forward

  3. I see you’re no longer green. You were green for a very long time. Anyway, I hope the apostrophe problem has now gone.

  4. Great that the apostrophe problem is solved, but I must admit I associate your blog with that restful green colour scheme.

    Your headline should refer to Ritchie’s prediction “on 22 June 2010″, not 2013.

  5. Er, but there has been hardly any cut in the deficit and today’s announcement shows the deficit last year “up”!

    Unemployment is certainly not 4 million, but stuck at the same level as Labour left with the balance mired in under-employment and part time work (and no one predicted that).

    The disintegration of the coalition is not an economic prediction of course, and we’re seeing the two coalition partners in office each for their own electoral expediency rather than any economic benefit for the country.

    But what is certain is that although it won’t happen tomorrow, the next Labour government in 2015 is certainly having to sort out Osborne’s mess. So that one is simply rolled over.

  6. But what is certain is that although it won’t happen tomorrow, the next Labour government in 2015 is certainly having to sort out Osborne’s mess.

    I think they’ll be more likely to be still sorting out Broon’s mess. Which most of them heartily endorsed.

  7. George Osborne’s forecasts in his 2010 budget:

    GDP growth in 2012: 2.8%
    Public-sector deficit in 2012: 4.0% of GDP

    What’s actually happened:

    GDP growth in 2012: 0.2%
    Public-sector deficit in 2012: 7.4% of GDP (or 7.8%, depending on what’s counted)

    “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” (Nils Bohr, who was quoting someone else.)

  8. Yep, they’ll be leading up their own five year old mess, or more likely dumping more, fresh mess on top of the old one.

  9. The key figures here were 4 million unemployed with the coalition having broken up under the weight of its problems and a new gov’t in place.
    So as BenM would say “spot on Richard”

  10. Has anybody else noticed; as our European neighbours are left ever more mired in double and triple dip recessions, George Osborne is beginning to walk around like the cat who got the cream. It’s not me; he thinks he’s won.

  11. Osbourne and the entire Blulabour gang are 90% peddlers of NuLabour shite anyway. The fact that they have mostly kept on with the same evil garbage as the previous scum has had the results that anybody not a socialist idiot could have predicted.

  12. Well maybe; maybe not. However, I have enjoyed the spectacle of Murphy’s accolytes melting away when I point out how bad things are turning for Labour. And all that pseudo-Keynesian shite has been dropped as well as they get more desparate. Just beautiful.

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