Yes, I do realise that people are trying to predict what will happen therefore it happening in the future is no great surprise. But I do still find this tedious:
A controversial pause in global warming may be due to heat vanishing into the depths of the Atlantic and Southern Oceans.
But surface temperatures will start rising again in a decade, according to scientists in the US.
It’s always about to happen, isn’t it? It’s all prediction. I’d feel happier in splashing a few trillion in cash if there was some series of past events that showed that it’s going to be a serious problem rather than simply predictions that it’s going to be.
And no, we don’t in fact have that past evidence. All of the predictions that it’s going to be a future serious problem are conditional. Most importantly, conditional upon the economic and technological model that one uses about how many people there are going to be, how rich they are and what they use to power their society. Of the latest models, the ones that replaced the SRES, there’s only one that says that it is all going to be serious (as opposed to chronic) and that assumes that by 2080 we’ll still be using coal to power 50% of the economy.
An assumption which, if we’re to be honest about the growth in solar, fuel cells and so on, is really a pretty silly assumption to be making.