Desirable, yes, but still somewhat unlikely

While I’d love to see this happen I’ll not be putting any money on it happening just yet:

Nationwide support for Nigel Farage’s Ukip has soared to an all-time high 25 per cent – enough for the party to take Parliament by storm with well over 100 MPs and a possible Labour Election victory.

That is the shock result of a Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday, carried out after Ukip rocked the Tories and Labour in two by-elections last week.

The basic facts of UKIP’s polling support are as follows: a surge just before and during each euro-election campaign with a falling back afterwards. But each fall back has been to a higher level. Current support is below that of the last euros for example, but very much higher than at the last GE. The big question is going to be how much of this level of support actually lasts through to the GE. Rather depends upon events old boy, events.

But it would astonish me if it fell back below 10%, still surprise below 15%. And 25% or above would also astonish.

Fun times, eh?

10 comments on “Desirable, yes, but still somewhat unlikely

  1. I know fully well that whatever my current thoughts and predictions, they will be trumped by ‘events’ during the coming months.

  2. No party has unlimited campaigning resources, so there are many opportunities for tacit and local pacts between Tories and UKIP.
    UKIP goes easy on Tory marginals with eurosceptic MPs, while UKIP is left alone to fight Labour in the North is one scenario.
    Of course it could all backfire and we get Ed as PM with only say 28% of the vote. But in that case, how long could he govern, with his credibility shot?

  3. 100 seats? That depends on the distribution of votes. I’m not sure if anyone has ever won a seat with 25% of the vote (Caroline Lucas has 31% in Brighton Pavillion).

    You’d really need to poll a number of different constituencies (rural, urban, northern, southern) and see if any score higher than around 40%. My guess – UKIP will hold onto Carswell and Reckless (if he wins).

    By the way, that’s a very good strategy – getting MPs to stand again for by-election. By-elections are much easier to win (because they don’t affect the government in charge) but having established a win for UKIP, people will more likely gravitate towards UKIP at the general election.

  4. Does UKIP have sufficient decent candidates to win 20 or more seats ?

    It’s all very well the electorate saying they would vote for Nigel Farage or Carswell but what are the candidates like elsewhere ?

  5. I can think of UKIP candidates whom I would prefer over ANY of the current incumbents. Though maybe not all.

  6. Shinsei1967

    It is not at all obvious that people vote based on the qualities of the local candidate – that tends to be a second or third consideration behind party and leader, and possible spot in cabinet.

  7. I vote based on the candidate. Have known our local MP for years, have met a couple of his challengers – though around here the challengers make it very hard to come across them.

  8. But in that case, how long could he govern, with his credibility shot?

    If Labour have a majority of 1, even with only 28% of the vote, the BBC will say time and again it’s an overwhelming mandate.

  9. If the share of the vote across the nation was the same as at last week’s by- elections, Labour would hold on to 66 seats while the Conservatives and Lib Dems would be wiped out. UKIP would take 560.

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