This is going to be interesting

Greens overtake Lib Dems in the polls: Surge in support takes party into fourth place with eight per cent

Party’s support put at a record 8 per cent in Ashcroft National Poll
It means Nick Clegg’s party has slipped into fifth place on 7 per cent

8% isn’t really enough to make a great difference if it’s widely spread support. Ukip’s similar sorta level of support at the last GE might have cost Cameron 15 or 20 seats some say. And the LibDems will definitely have more seats that the Greens after the next GE, even if they have a lower national vote.

But if we get even vaguely close to having four way seats or a four way election then predicting the final result is going to be almost impossible. And fascinating……

9 comments on “This is going to be interesting

  1. There are also the Scot Nats to consider, both for the number of Labour and Liberal seats they take and their overall number. They could conceivably be the 3rd largest party at Westminster.

  2. Dan: Wonderful

    The sickening thing is that there are any stupid or evil enough to vote for the eco-freakshow at all.

  3. I mentioned on Saturday The Dictators Handbook; worth reading. In it they say there are 3 essentials to gaining power; either in a democracy, dictatorship or boardroom.

    The “interchangeables” basically, us; the electorate.
    The “influential’s”; the local party apparatchiks
    The “essential’s”; those like Mandelson that keep the anointed in power.

    The main difference between Marcos & Cameron is the breadth of bribes they need to give out. Marcos paid a relatively tight group; just a few generals. Cameron, needs to Bribe a far larger group, but the process remains the same at Board level too.

    Thoroughly entertaining if you want a good read.

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/Dictators-Handbook-Bruce-Bueno-Mesquita/dp/1610391845

  4. It’s how Caroline Lucas won her seat with 30% of the vote. The Lib, Lab and Con votes were all so strong that they allowed the Greens to win.

    FPTP only really works with 2 candidates. The Americans deal with this with primaries. You don’t have a couple of Republican types splitting the republican vote, you sort out which Republican is going to stand. As a result, 3rd parties have never really appeared.

  5. The ‘surge’ is the Green Wing of the LibDumbs leaving the sinking ship now it no longer looks ‘feasable’ (wildest dreams variety) as a Party of Government.

  6. Assume the following
    SNP, NI, PC = 10%
    LibDim/Green = 15%
    UKIP = 20%
    Con = 25%
    Lab = 30%

    Apply uniform swing.

    Minority govt? Only if Labour offers EU referendum. I bet it will. It will be in their manifesto. You heard it here first. Lots of Eurosceptics in Labour, and especially among Labour voters.

    Will Libs go into Coalition? Don’t know. But with south of 10% there’s no popular mandate. Con/UKIP? Lots of bad blood. Lab/Con with guaranteed EU referendum?

  7. The Greens are fighting with the LibDems for last place. Other than Brighton, many other places where the Greens put forward candidates they come last, especially when they campaign against fracking. Two example I can think of are Bob Dennett and Tina-Louise Rothery. They might get a council seat in a few places just because like minded people will group together, attracted to a location because others of their “group” and friends live there. Ghettos in other words. Like the town of Hebden Bridge which is so leftie and greenie that its the LGBT capital of the country. Everywhere else the number of people who are seriously green are a tiny minority.

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