So, I was at the Visegrad 4 conference

Or the conference before the Visegrad 4 one or something like that. Lots of people earnestly talking about cooperation and Europe and stuff. Definitely the B team on display which was why I just scraped into an invite. Frances Coppolla and I did a panel, should Greece leave the euro? Which Frances has already talked about (my answer, Hell Yes, everyone should leave, it’s an idiot way to run a continent).

The interesting bit was how scary it was in fact. The groupthink is strong in this arena. There is no questioning of the goal, even if it’s not clearly delineated. That ever closer union is just assumed: how to bring it about being the only difference anyone has. I was the only truly eurosceptic person there and I wasn’t on the panel discussing eurosceptics for example (Frances is reasonable on this subject where I am not).

At one stage I pointed out that fiscal union simply was not going to happen. Europeans just are not going to allow 15-20% of GDP to be distributed through Brussels, which is what would be needed for the automatic stabilisers to operate properly so that the eurozone comes even close to being an optimal currency area. To do that really does mean German taxes paying Greek pensions.

It. Will. Not. Happen.

Not this century at least.

Everyone was shocked: how could you say such a thing? And anyway, we need to work out how to make this happen not think of why it cannot.

What’s scary about this is that these are the people (the varied policy wonks, political aides and so on who made up the audience) who are actually deciding policy within that EU bureaucracy. and they’re simply off with the fairies. The demos is something to be managed, not something to be regarded as the fount of legitimacy. Something to be imposed upon, not something to be listened to.

It’s out of this sort of mindset that we get the recent one from Martin Schultz. Only those who sign up to European values should be allowed to be elected to the European Parliament. EU values of course including ever closer union etc. Not all that odd a socialist shouting that only those who agree with him can stand for election but what’s remarkable is the lack of people pointing out the idiocy of the idea.

They’re seriously dangerous these people. Not listening to that demos, locking it out as they wish to do, is going to cause that very unrest that they say they wish to avoid.

For the record my argument was very simple and it’s the one I have been making for 20 years now. The eurozone is too large to be an optimal currency area. There will always be asymmetric shocks across such an area: that’s just the same statement. Asymmetric shocks means your single monetary area is too large. You can increase the size of this areas by moving to fiscal union. But Europeans just aren’t ready to do that (my phrasing was, go to Germany, state that half of German taxes must be paid to Brussels so that German taxes really do pay Greek pensions. You’ll be gutted and hanging from a lamp post before you’ve finished your speech). Thus, too large a currency area, local monetary policies not possible to deal with asymmetric shocks, (examples being Spain and Ireland pre-crash, Greece and Finland now), we’re always going to have asymmetric shocks and we can’t have a common fiscal union simply because the people won’t wear it.

Thus we should not have the euro. Everyone should leave.

Wasn’t a popular reading of the runes that one. However true it actually is…..

48 comments on “So, I was at the Visegrad 4 conference

  1. Tim

    What you you say backs up what a lot of us have deduced/guessed, and as you say it is scary. It is this inability on the part of the political class to have the faintest grasp of reality that ensures that when it all does collapse in ruins, as is inevitable, there is likely to be violence.

    The question is not if it is when? and with how many dead?

  2. But it’s not just the political class. It’s what all ‘right thinking’ people accept without a second thought. It’s truly depressing talking to apparently well-educated people and realising that they are clueless and have bought in completely to a fantasy narrative in which only the criminally racist/sexist/nastyist can be against the EU.

  3. Let’s be honest. There’s any number of topics where the political class & “right thinking people” are at variance with the demos. Immigration’s a fine example. Is there a country in Europe where there’s not disquiet about the level of immigration – whether internal or from external sources? Lip service may occasionally given to the concern but there doesn’t seem to be the slightest enthusiasm to actually addressing it. At best just empty, sound-bite promises.

  4. No need to go that far.

    Yougoslavia anyone? Keep people together by force, whether hard or soft, the end result is the same and it angers me that the European ideals of my youth, ie free movement and cooperation have been subverted in such a way.

    My children will likely suffer for it, and for that alone, I wish these people all manner of harm.

  5. Welcome to the real world, Tim!
    Group-thinking and vested interests is all what europe is about at its core!

  6. You can add climate change to the list of topics where “right-thinking people” are of one voice.

    (Even if we agree that CC is real, building solar panels in Britain is just a waste of money.)

  7. @AndrewM – There’s a whole constellation of issues where you know in advance what ‘right thinking’ people believe. Its the Radio 4/Guardian consensus. Characterised by a complete refusal to think independently or engage in any thought process. Argue with them and you enter a fact-free twilight zone where they just ‘know’ what’s right.

  8. Capital punishment and crime as well. Not to mention most education policy and multiculturalism.

    We have a ruling elite that hates the societies that produce them.

    And while it is too late to make a difference by voting, and too early to start shooting, one of those will change soon enough.

  9. bloke in spain,

    If nothing else, we are past that point where people no longer fear being called racists for opposing immigration. They will tell the luvvies that want more immigrants to fuck off.

    The thing about Thatcherism is always how much it was loved by the demos and hated by the “right thinking people”. Norman Tebbit’s On Your Bike speech was a work of accidental genius, because it had the RTPs saying “how very dare you” while the demos looked on them with contempt. And it was the same when the RTPs nodded along with Theresa May talking about “the nasty party”. You know, the one that won 4 majorities bigger than either of Cameron’s.

  10. Interesting and matches my very limited experience of meeting with officials from the Commission.

    On a side note, my Economics A Level exam essay was on the feasibility of the Euro when I took it in 1996. Spent 3 hours writing about why it won’t work and got an ‘A’ grade ….

  11. All of this is why the war aim must be not merely the UK out of the EU but the utter destruction of the EU and the personal punishment of every POS who has helped or co-operated or gone along with the trash. Let alone those in the organisation itself.

    The first stage who be a grand index of their names faces etc. The SS got away because we had no records of who most of them were. No such mistake with the EU . Every twat at this conference –excluding Tim– should now be a marked man.

  12. Looking at the site we’re not important enough to have had a video uploaded.

    “Prague European Summit”

  13. Mr Ecs,
    All the SS had their blood group tattooed on their upper arm. But as they didn’t have AC/DC concerts in those days, there weren’t mass gatherings of men in sleeveless shirts.

  14. There is precedent for all this detachment from reality of the European elite from the man on the bus of course, even if I understand the original attributed expression of it to Marie Antoinette to be somewhat apocryphal if not flat wrong

    Qu’ils mangent de la brioche

  15. It isn’t just the ruling elite – it’s an innate conservatism in “right thinking people”. These people really are very, very conservative, and have been immersed since birth in the internationalist agenda. They know nothing else, really fear “the demos” and react violently to anything not “on message”.

    I have a friend who always reacts with a scornful “oh FUCK OFF” to literally any statement which isn’t “right thinking”. It’s almost Pavlovian.

  16. ProgContra – I had lunch with a friend last week and explained to her why I believed in a legal right to total free speech with only direct incitements to violence barred.

    I don’t think she’d have looked any less bewildered or horrified if I’d told her that I tortured rabbits to death and was popping out after lunch to buy a new hard drive for my nonce porn collection.

  17. Rob- Your “friend” is no friend of yours if he believes and supports the CM gang.

    Scrape him off and tell him a few home truths about the evil that is socialism.

    And if he takes a swing at you –you have an excuse to beat the shit out of him.

  18. MC–this is why the left must be purged from the govt tit. I used to think Unis–but now it has to be everywhere. Schools/”Third sector” bullshit (all shut down)/ councils–the absolute fucking lot

    . The scum of middle-class CM vermin are all that remains of socialism –outside of witless “my Dad voted Labour” white northern working-class numpties who are voting for their own destruction. But that is true of real conservatives who continue to support BluLabour– turkeys voting for Christmas.

    The left-conditioned middle-class must be broken or they will destroy us–and themselves as well.

  19. @bloke in spain
    June 10, 2016 at 8:03 am

    Let’s be honest. There’s any number of topics where the political class & “right thinking people” are at variance with the demos. Immigration’s a fine example. Is there a country in Europe where there’s not disquiet about the level of immigration – whether internal or from external sources? Lip service may occasionally given to the concern but there doesn’t seem to be the slightest enthusiasm to actually addressing it. At best just empty, sound-bite promises.

    Hungary, Slovakia and Poland seem to have governments who are concerned about large scale immigration, I guess they understand history better than we do.

  20. Jonathan Abbott:

    ‘The current contempt for democracy across Europe reminds me of only one thing: the 1930s. Scary thought.’

    Absolutely – it’s in this kind of atmosphere that charlatans like the Sage of Ely/Downham Market thrive….

    This is a flavour from the comments – the demand for an apology from the critic is new to me:

    ‘I would maintain non-execs are always useful

    I would never argue not knowing how to run a company is

    You deliberately conflate the two

    Shame on you

    Your apology will be accepted this time’

    And an old favourite:

    ‘I fully understand limited liability

    It was very useful

    It is now deeply abused

    You are ignoring that’

  21. @MC – I get the same thing – a look of pure horror that an educated person doesn’t share the same mindset. Even worse they look at the colour of my skin and can’t imagine how I can sanely feel that multi-culturalism is a curse. ‘But your parents were immigrants’ they mumble in horror…

  22. There do seem to be a disproportionate number of German politicians for which strangulation at birth would have been a positive gift to mankind in general, not just Germany.

    Hitler and the whole of his high command; Merkel; and Schultz to give a few examples

  23. It’s just the same old priesthood still ruling us. They think alike, and act alike, whether the current belief is (Christian God, socialism, the EU/UN). Whatever the belief, it comes down to the same thing — we’re the ones who should make the decisions, and anyone who disagrees should be an outcast (or killed).

  24. Funny how contemporary observers of post-war Europe got the idea that the Germans (or French, or Austrians) would start WW3 as soon as they could. But of course the countries were in no position to, and the people clearly were so traumatised it would have been impossible.

    But all right thinking people thought it was the European demos that started wars, not European governments. From this original guilt-transference all else flows.

  25. BraveFart

    I know. That provided my ‘spit my cornflakes out’ moment of this morning. I’m not going to find find out why; just not.

    – and don’t try to tell me!

  26. Questions we can answer on Timothy Worstall’s blog.

    He is deeply unpopular and only supported by a bunch of strange freaks.

    If free trade has a global reach, then politics has to be part and parcel to promote that.

    It’s not fucking difficult. Sure there will be all manner of turmoil and adjustment, but then life’s like that, yeah?

    It’s nothing to do with “right thinking people” – if they a “right thinking” what does it make you?

    The only definite truth in all this Farageio is that the UK will have a diminishing influence on an economic body that broadly works.

    It isn’t a wonder or surprise that Timothy’s attempts at reasonableness are met with “who the fuck are you” looks.

    Because, who the fuck are you to claim any authority.

    This post is pure vainglory. As bad as anything Murphy does.

  27. Lawrence,
    Free trade is a good thing; Tim has never said otherwise. But the body we call the EU, its institutions, its system of governance – that’s what we find deeply flawed.

    “Love Europe, hate the EU”

  28. bloke in france,

    They weren’t going to because of the advances in agriculture in the period 1914 and 1945.

    This “EU stopped war between France and Germany” is just nonsense when you consider how little war is going on anywhere. Tractors, improving wealth etc means we don’t think it’s worth grabbing land as a way of getting richer. That’s what land wars were all about for centuries: most wealth was about food, and that was about land.

  29. The Return of Lawrence Whelk: Informer and Man about Town.

    “He is deeply unpopular and only supported by a bunch of strange freaks.”

    And what could be more strange or freaky than hating the guts of a scummy death-cult that has murdered 150 million human beings? And the latest incarnation of their “Smiling Face” style of evil–our friends in the EU.

    “If free trade has a global reach, then politics has to be part and parcel to promote that.”

    Say What?

    “It’s not fucking difficult. Sure there will be all manner of turmoil and adjustment, but then life’s like that, yeah?”

    Double up on the “Say What?”

    “It’s nothing to do with “right thinking people” – if they a “right thinking” what does it make you?”

    Is this a communication channelled by a little known entity from the other side?

    Karl Marx proving he can talk as much shite dead as he could alive?

    “The only definite truth in all this Farageio (“An attempted play on words folks–In case you missed it”) is that the UK will have a diminishing influence on an economic body that broadly works.”

    The people of the UK have fuck all influence on a gang of evil cunts who are destroying Western civilisation both economically and demographically while striving to stamp out every trace of accountability and personal freedom. That shite like you supports those goals is no surprise. Of course we all want to maintain the freedom and ongoing influence of Britain’s “elite” CM scum.

    “It isn’t a wonder or surprise that Timothy’s attempts at reasonableness are met with “who the fuck are you” looks.”

    Back to the Twilight Zone. Looks from whom Mr Whelk? All those important CM scummers whose wunderstickers you long to suck daily?

    “Because, who the fuck are you to claim any authority.”

    Not much room for claiming authority with murderous statist, socialist cunts like you and your buddies around Larri. You scum want to vacuum up every scrap of power so your hate-filled Utopias can go on murdering millions and spreading poverty and ruin.

    “This post is pure vainglory. As bad as anything Murphy does.”

    All your posts are vainglory Las. And what is this –turning on your former bum chum Murph? Finally been persuaded by Tim what a twat the LHTD really is?

    Or are you planning–hence the name change–to become an informer for the EU? The Dark Open Mouth of Gurn-Sea? The EUrotrash’s man in mid-channel?

    Or maybe just fuck off back to your burgers.

  30. It would seem Arnald/Lawrence is suffering from some sort of multiple personality disorder. I wonder if there is a scientific explanation for a multiple personality disorder where all of them are cunts.

  31. If free trade has a global reach, then politics has to be part and parcel to promote that.

    Arnald/Lawrence:

    Since when was Guernsey part of the European Union? If you haven’t got skin in the game, shut the fuck up.

  32. Stephen

    My guess on Schultz is that it’s been redacted from Google – however, there’s plenty of stuff on him if you look around.

    Larry the Lamb

    Fortunately the superb Mr. Ecks has done much of the necessary fisking of your bizarre utterances (and please change the Moniker back FFS – you are Lawrence from Guernsey in your persona as a stool pigeon on TRUK, it’s jarring here) but this one caught my eye.

    ‘If free trade has a global reach, then politics has to be part and parcel to promote that.

    It’s not fucking difficult. Sure there will be all manner of turmoil and adjustment, but then life’s like that, yeah?’

    So we need a world government because of Free Trade – are you smoking crack? That’s your contention?

    ‘The only definite truth in all this Farageio is that the UK will have a diminishing influence on an economic body that broadly works.’

    The EU works – in Spain? in Greece? could you get your head out of the ground long enough to think about what you are putting on the page?

    I appreciate Tim’s lack of a comments policy as I think Freedom of Speech is something that is worth defending unto the breach, but for someone as self-evidently deranged as you to have the temerity to criticise virtually every other commentator on here, the overwhelming majority of whom offer a level of knowledge and often deep understanding of complex issues which you could really never even dream of possessing is truly mind-blowing….

  33. Van_Patten

    “Fortunately the superb Mr. Ecks has done much of the necessary fisking”

    I rest my case. X is a brain-dead cretin and you think he’s “superb”.

    Galt

    I’m from England, you childish twat. And England leaving will have a potentially big impact on the finance industry in Guernsey. Not that I really like the place.

    I’m not sure my post is overly pro EU, the point is that we have to engage with the flawed arrangements to help fix them.

    Farage wouldn’t be a democratically elected MEP with an entirely immigrant background if he thought the ‘enemy within’ idea was useless.

    Also, I’m not the one comparing Merkel to Hitler.

    “the overwhelming majority of whom offer a level of knowledge and often deep understanding of complex issues ”

    okaaay

  34. > the point is that we have to engage with the flawed arrangements to help fix them

    May I suggest you travel to Syria to join ISIS, and engage with their flawed arrangements to help fix them? Not up for that? What makes you think attempts to engage with the EU will achieve anything? Look at the dogs dinner of a compromise that Cameron obtained last time (“I have in my hand a piece of paper…”).

  35. “I rest my case. X is a brain-dead cretin and you think he’s “superb”.”

    You are resting your case on your balls Arnie.

    Or rather on the scar where your tackle used to be before the accident with the grill.

    As the manager said that day “Its a shame we at McDs don’t sell hot dogs. Even miniature ones”.

  36. Tim, Van_Patten: I tried looking around for Herr Schulz’s dicta.

    I found, quite recently, at http://www.france24.com/en/20151024-talking-europe-martin-schulz-eu-parliament-migrant-crisis-pegida-far-right:

    Martin Schulz@01.52 : the Germans gave the answer [to migrants] “You are welcome”, other countries said “You are not welcome”. That is an answer that is completely unacceptable.

    Martin Schulz @14.49: German-French collaboration is always better for all the others.

    Tim’s case proved: man is intolerable. Still, if someone can come up with Schulz’s comment about excluding unacceptable MEPs, I would be very grateful.

  37. @Arnald / Lawrence

    I’m from England, you childish twat. And England leaving will have a potentially big impact on the finance industry in Guernsey. Not that I really like the place.

    Then you should vote in the Refendum on June 23rd. Oh! but you can’t because being resident in Guernsey doesn’t give you any right to vote even if you are from England (I always thought you were a hun…never mind).

    Still no vote is not vote. Tough titty, little kitty.

  38. “If free trade has a global reach, then politics has to be part and parcel to promote that.”

    Indeed – but it does not necessitate the creation of megastates or common currencies, etc. Which is the point.

  39. “If free trade has a global reach, then politics has to be part and parcel to promote that.”

    Clap has a “Global reach”

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