Weird Brexit prediction

Simon Evenett, Author of the Global Trade Alert and Professor of International Trade at the University of St Gallen said: “If the UK leaves the EU and doesn’t manage to negotiate a free trade deal some consumer goods such as footwear, t-shirts and cars could have tariffs placed on them as high as 10%. This will really hit exports.

How many t-shirts does the UK make? How much price sensitive foot wear? And I rather doubt the Germans would wear car tariffs…..

30 comments on “Weird Brexit prediction

  1. Aren’t cars, footwear and T-shirts things that the UK imports? So is he saying that we should impose retaliatory tariffs on them?
    Umm, that’s a Labour Party position and they don’t look likely to be in power next week.

  2. All these Brexit predictions are starting to remind me of Ghostbusters.

    Dr. Peter Venkman: This city is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions.
    Mayor: What do you mean, “biblical”?
    Dr Ray Stantz: What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath of God type stuff.
    Dr. Peter Venkman: Exactly.
    Dr Ray Stantz: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
    Dr. Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes…
    Winston Zeddemore: The dead rising from the grave!
    Dr. Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together… mass hysteria!
    Mayor: All right, all right! I get the point!

  3. Tariffs as high as 10%? Is that the worst they can predict?

    I thought the leavers were also complaining about the collapse of the pound, which has made our exports 7% cheaper. Should cover the average tariff.

  4. @Rob’s link. Aren’t the BBC in breach of their charter? I thought they weren’t allowed to advertise.

  5. That New Yorker article is fucking terrible. What do they think is going to happen? U-boats in the English Channel? Plucky merchantmen braving the wolf packs to bring their precious cargoes of cold-pressed olive oil and Provençal Tarte Tropézienne?

    Say food prices go up by 3% ‘cos of tariffs. Then the average UK household spend on food goes from something like 9.1% to 9.4%. I doubt people will be hunting stray cats for food any time soon.

  6. One strand of all this is that the centre-left has never really wanted to admit that Thatcherism had any benefits.

    Where they’re willing to admit that there have been improvements since the 70s at all they attribute them to the EU, which they don’t distinguish from the EEC.

  7. JerryC

    Been some time since I saw the names of these good doctors. From memory the last time was when they were frequent contributors to the comments on Murphy’s blog? All banned by now for sure.

  8. If we cannot export “Eradicate the right wing Blairite scum” t-shirts to toothless Marxist maniacs then we really are fucked.

  9. My business partner is mightily pissed off about Brexit. Says the UK will be run by Fascists and he is considering moving to India (he has Indian blood so might be accepted, whereas I wouldn’t qualify). India – the ‘Fascist’ state that imposes strong controls on immigration, as does virtually every other country outside the EU club.

  10. “OMG, points system immigration is intolerabls. I think I’ll move to Canada or Australia”.

    Erm… wut?

  11. Does anyone outside of the UK buy any UK made vehicles other than Triumph motorcycles (I have one! 2005 S3)?

    As far as I can tell, at least over here, all the Brit marques are built here and very little is imported.

    Even the last two BMW’s I have (yeah, I know they’re German) were built in South Carolina.

    And if they’re built on the continent by a local subsidiary then there’s not really any ‘importation’ to worry about.

  12. Does anyone outside of the UK buy any UK made vehicles other than Triumph motorcycles (I have one! 2005 S3)?

    Are Land Rovers built outside the UK?

  13. “Bloke in Costa Rica

    I doubt people will be hunting stray cats for food any time soon.”

    Best part of this? We’ll sell you champagne, gorganzola, and Poularde du Périgord (whatever the hell that is) with no problems.

    You can even get mayonaisse *without eggs* here. Don’t know why or how it tastes, but that is a real thing over here. Even had a court case confirming that its not up to the government to regulate that sort of thing.

  14. I think the only food I consume that absolutely has to come from outside is tea. Everything else either already is grown in the UK or can potentially be grown in the UK.

  15. @ Agammamon
    Irony is a British habit which Bloke in Wales has just exhibited.
    You may also be unaware that Rolls-Royce motors export most of their production – they do not have any manufacturing plants in the USA or China.

  16. @ jgh
    I drink coffee. I also eat a lot of citrus, which can, just, be grown in the UK but UK demand far exceeds the capacity of UK orangeries.
    We have enough sound arguments – we don’t need to put forward ones that can be refuted.

  17. John77: You obviously don’t buy Church’s shoes, or John Lobb’s for that matter. But if you are willing to pay £400 for a standard pair of Church’s Oxfords and £450 for a pair of brogues an 10% isn’t going to make a lot of difference.

    The higher EU tariffs are for low-value added goods, precisely the kind of gods that we have been trying to move away from. I find it iironic that all the Blairites and many Tories who have been lecturing the nation about a skills based and knowledge based economy and the need for education to create the added value necessary to survive in the 21st century should be so keen on a customs union that simply protects farmers and manufacturers of low value added goods. No duties on aircraft parts, hardly any on precision manufactured machine tools but 50% duties on African cabbages.

  18. @ Alex
    My grandmother wore Church’s shoes, but they don’t fit me. So I did wear K for several years until they closed their Cumbrian factory and changed the last. Currently I am wearing a pair of Clark’s. For my first marathon and for a couple of decades thereafter I only wore New Balance trainers (made in Cumbria) but in the last decade my local specialist strongly advised me to switch to Adidas.
    I said “the UK imports” – not me.
    IMHO anyone who imports any, not just African, cabbages deserves punitive tariffs or to be required to eat 5 cabbages a day.

  19. The New Balance shoes ‘Made’ in England actually have only the lasted upper stuck to the sole in Cumbria. 95% of the manufacturing is done in Vietnam. I know this because I’ve been to the factory in Vietnam where they actually do all the work including putting the ‘made in UK’ labels in lol.

    As Alex said the only footwear made in the UK is £400+ a pair proper welted stuff that people will buy anyway… They probably enjoy paying more for it! Mostly made around Northampton/Kettering where everyone voted leave anyway.

  20. It’s an exciting, huge and exotic world out there, as we’re about to rediscover.

    From outside, the EU can seem rather insular and moribund, as well as protectionist.

    The final nail for me was subsidies to European vinyards to protect them against those ghastly forrins. It’s not just the money, it’s the affect. French (lower end) wine gets out-competed because it’s simply not good enough.

    Meanwhile, my local supermarkets sell Somerset Brie to the discerning consumer, while French Brie gets knocked out under the value banner.

  21. Interesting Alex thanks. Is there an easy online resource where I can look this stuff up? Sorry for the lmgtfy!

    Services seem to be the big issue, specifically financial services. What’s the general feeling there?

  22. @ Dongguan Juan
    Thirty years ago New Balance were made in England: leading-edge shoe technology, correspondingly pricey. Since they started manufacturing abroad to reduce costs and increase profits, their technology has gone from leading to lagging behind

  23. “I find it iironic that all the Blairites and many Tories who have been lecturing the nation about a skills based and knowledge based economy and the need for education to create the added value necessary to survive in the 21st century should be so keen on a customs union that simply protects farmers and manufacturers of low value added goods”

    And of course who also insist we import vast numbers of semi-literate and unskilled foreign labour. Coz that’s what a skills and knowledge based economy needs.

  24. Coz that’s what a skills and knowledge based economy needs.

    Knowledge based economists know that they and their wives’ mates still need nannies and gardeners and plumbers who willing to turn out on a Friday night.
    Skills based economists? Rocking horse shit, methinks.

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