8 comments on “Well, yes, why not?

  1. French liar discovers that telling people what they want to hear boosts his popularity.

    Until they discover that he is just another lying Paris Bubble prick.

  2. The ruling elites of the West have comprehensively failed. The voters of the West are sick of them. Running on a platform of knocking the elites is a sure winner I would think.

    Fillon has stronger credentials than some to do so:

    Fillon received a baccalauréat in 1972. He then studied at the University of Maine (l’université du Maine) in Le Mans where he received a Masters degree in Public Law in 1976. He did additional studies at Paris Descartes University earning the Master of Advanced Studies (diplôme d’études approfondies) in Public Law

    Paris V is not bad. But it is not great either. Compare with Juppe:

    His secondary studies have taken place at the Victor-Duruy high school (Landes). At 17, he graduated with a baccalauréat. He then came to Paris for a literary preparatory classe at the Lycée Louis-le-Grand and entered the Senior Normal School in 1964 to get a Classics agrégation in 1967. He completed his degrees at the Paris Institute of Political Studies (1968) and at the National School of Administration (1970-1972).

    The only problem is Sarkozy.

  3. Sarko out already. The socialists have to decide whether to go with Hollande or let the hapless Valls run. Otherwise Emmanuel Macron is staging a centrist insurgency (and he is an Enarque). I’ve taken a small punt on Macron on the basis that Fillon is a bit Anglo Saxon for the French.

  4. ken – “Sarko out already.”

    That is what I meant. If the French were opposed to their traditional rulers, they ought to be kinder to Sarkozy. Only the man is a buffoon.

    “The socialists have to decide whether to go with Hollande or let the hapless Valls run.”

    A party with such a choice deserves a quick and painless death. They should accept the inevitable. Valls ought to be a strong candidate but now is not the time to call oneself “Blairiste” or “Clintonien”. Nor is it ever a good idea to tell the French public they will have to live with terrorism the day after the Nice attack. Euthanasia would be kinder.

    “I’ve taken a small punt on Macron on the basis that Fillon is a bit Anglo Saxon for the French.”

    After Cameron defied the polls, Brexit, Trump, I am tempted to put some money on Le Pen. But I expect my heart is over ruling my head. The French have never had a female head of state. Not one.

    Still I can dream of Marion …ummm… winning. Yes, that’s it. Winning.

  5. SMFS

    Odds on Le Pen are too short given the likely second round. No evidence that she could outpoll either establishment candidate. And Fillon is very short odds, which makes sense. I dont expect Macron to win, but I think there could be a anti-Fillon backlash after nomination.

  6. I suspect that the first round will result in LePen and whoever the Gaullists end up putting forward going through.

    At which point the socialists will put their weight behind the Gaullist candidate to stop LePen. But whether their base has come over all Brexit / Trumpian might decide it.

  7. Fillon/Le Pen in the 2nd round is the probable outcome. He will win but not as decisively as Chirac vs her father.

    Fillon says the right things but he’s done nothing for 5 years as Sarkozy’s pm. So what’s the likelyhood he does anything now?

    That said, any major terrorist attack between now and then, and Le Pen has a chance..

    Macron is a creature of the media, just like Juppe was. He will disappear without a trace.

  8. I assume that there is a “quiet National Front” voter in France. How many, I do not know. But I know that the alternatives are even more poor than usual this time.

    So I will go out on a limb and predict that Le Pen will win in the first round.

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