So, it’s starting, is it?

South Africa’s rand tumbled on Monday afternoon after credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded the country’s the credit grade to junk status, saying a cabinet reshuffle by President Jacob Zuma last week had put fiscal and growth outcomes at risk.

The agency said the downgrade reflected its view that the divisions in the African National Congress (ANC) government, especially the firing of respected finance minister Pravin Gordhan, who was replaced by an ally of Zuma last week, have put policy continuity at risk.

Or continuing perhaps.

Unlike some around here I’ve never been worried about black power. But putting liberation communists in charge always looked like a bad idea.

30 comments on “So, it’s starting, is it?

  1. When Robert Mugabe is considered your hero for ousting white farmers from their land and handing in to black “war veterans” (in the process turning the breadbasket of Southern Africa into a poverty ridden shit hole), what do you expect.

    Zuma may not even be the worst of the kleptocrats in South Africa, certainly many believe that the ANC’s revolution will not be over until the whites are ousted in their entirety.

    Nelson Mandela’s dream of a multi-racial South Africa at peace with itself was never going to be allowed to survive.

  2. Before we do decide it’s because they is black, perhaps we could look at photos of Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, Jolyon Maugham and dear old Spud.

  3. “Liberation communist” flatters Zuma. He is an oldfashioned kleptocrat manoeuvring to protect his benefactors. The Gupta brothers who have succeeded in capturing large sections of the state’s enterprises are Indian btw. The biggest mistake post 94 was not privatising everything the socialist Afrikaner state had its finger in: airline, electricity, railways, telecommunications, post office.

  4. @JG – I suspect Zuma would be happily bumbling along with the standard sub-Saharan African level of corruption – just a few tens of millions here or there, no more than a chap deserves really.

    However, the ANC is worried about Julius Malema so they are stealing some of his policies.

  5. There is no Black-run city in the world that is not a sh!thole. There is no Black-run country in the world – except for South Africa – that is not a sh!thole. Now South Africa is ceasing to be the exception to the rule. Even when it was ruled by Whites, it was still a sh!thole. Just a competently-run, fiscally prudent, solvent sh!thole.

    By way of contrast half of all the smokers in the world die of something else. Half.

    Yet people like Rusty who insist that Africa’s problems have nothing to do with race insist that even second hand smoke is bad for your healthy. Well, fair enough, second-hand Blackness certainly is as well.

    And it is not merely a matter of ideology. No doubt the Stalinist scum who run the ANC would have been a disaster if they had come to power when Communism was still a viable option no matter what their race. But that liberation theology is being replaced with the uniform default form of Black politics – a kleptocratic Big Man who hands out other people’s property to his cronies (while sleeping with anything that moves).

    If it ain’t caused by Blackness it sure as hell does a really good impersonation of it.

  6. Ironman – “Before we do decide it’s because they is black, perhaps we could look at photos of Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, Jolyon Maugham and dear old Spud.”

    Two of them are reducing to ranting on a blog. The other two may as well be for all the influence they have on Britain.

    Zuma commands the loyalty of something like 80% of all South African voters.

    One of these groups is not like the other.

  7. @SMFS Not even close to 80%. More like 54% in the 2016 municipal elections. (Same voters’ roll as the national elections). And he is losing support daily. The black middle class is pissed off with Zuma’s thieving. The ANC plays the identity politics card incessantly and this is not as effective as it once was. The DA controls three large cities and delivers services extremely well. In my view, the ANC will split on ideological lines fairly soon. Commies, unions and fellow travellers like the EFF on one side, reasonably moderate people on the other. As some one who lives in South Africa, it is true to say that certain parts of it are shitholes. Other parts of it are like being in heaven. Beer in my club is about £1 a pint and the view of Table Mountain is incredible. But it won’t last long if it is left in Zuma’s thieving hands.

  8. Smfs: I don’t know where you get your stats but they’re wrong. In last year’s municipal elections the ANC(as a whole not just Zuma faction) lost the urban vote, Jo’burg, Port Elizabeth, Cape Town ie the modern economy and achieved only 53.9% of the vote, mostly from rural areas. The ANC itself is a tripartite alliance of trade unions(Cosatu), the SA Communist Party and the historical ANC, the former two are not happy with JZ crashing the economy and the latter is divided against him, Pravin Gordhan, the finance minister whose sacking precipitated this crisis, being but one who has managed to retain principles in the face of corruption. South Africa is not Zimbabwe even if Zuma has taken Mugabe for a role model.

  9. BC – “Not even close to 80%. More like 54% in the 2016 municipal elections.”

    I am happy to concede the exact percentage in that election but it is irrelevant. Zuma should be unelectable. He isn’t. He won even this election handily.

    “The ANC plays the identity politics card incessantly and this is not as effective as it once was.”

    The ANC vote was down by 8%, the EFF vote was up by 8-and-a-bit%. It doesn’t look like the race card is fading to me.

    “Other parts of it are like being in heaven. Beer in my club is about £1 a pint and the view of Table Mountain is incredible. But it won’t last long if it is left in Zuma’s thieving hands.”

    Sure. All the parts of Africa that are not in the early Iron Age depend on White people. As people like you are killed or driven out, Africa will revert to the mean.

    Ljh – “In last year’s municipal elections the ANC(as a whole not just Zuma faction) lost the urban vote, Jo’burg, Port Elizabeth, Cape Town ie the modern economy and achieved only 53.9% of the vote, mostly from rural areas.”

    They still hold half the major cities. They just lost the larger ones with lots of Whites – Cape Town, Pretoria, J’burg and the odd one being Port Elizabeth.

    “The ANC itself is a tripartite alliance of trade unions (Cosatu), the SA Communist Party and the historical ANC”

    So people often say. But the Communists who run the Trades Unions and the ANC of course answer to the SACP.

    “South Africa is not Zimbabwe even if Zuma has taken Mugabe for a role model.”

    Yet. The key will be when the ANC loses. Mugabe played nice until he started to lose.

  10. BC – what do you reckon are the chances that the ANC will split or decide to do something vaguely sensible before Zuma and his clique really fuck things up?

    Does it matter that the DA wins cities if the ANC takes a turn Mugabe-wards nationally?

    I’m asking as someone who has many happy memories of SA (had family there from late 90s to last year) but fears for its future.

  11. SMFS

    There is no Black-run country in the world – except for South Africa – that is not a shithole.

    Now South Africa is ceasing to be the exception to the rule.

    Even when it was ruled by Whites, it was still a shithole.

    Make your mind up..:)

  12. @MC We can only hope that his ANC enemies grow some balls and fire Zuma and reverse the Gupta theft. The SA economy is too complex and the nature of civil society here is such that the Zimbabwe scenario is unlikely. But we do need to get rid of him (and his moronic mates) quickly.

  13. @SMFS The EFF went from something like 6.5% in the general election to 8% in the municipal one. It did not exist at the time of the previous municipal election.

  14. SMFS,

    I’m going to have to beg to differ. During the apartheid era, South Africa was ruled by white shitholes, Zuma is doing his best to turn it into a shithole, and there are certainly parts of the country that are very much shitholes, Witbank being a prime example. But, and it is a big but, South Africa is one of the most beautiful countries in the world. It has so much variety in its landscapes. Most of its people are warm and generous. When I fly over the coastline at the start of a visit, my eyes are moist with emotion at the sense of a homecoming, when I leave I pray to the god I don’t believe in that it won’t be the last time.

    By contrast, although Australia has been incredibly good to us (enabled us to make up the financial cost of living in South Africa for a start) and it does have its beauty, if it wasn’t for the Aussie grandchildren, I do not feel strongly tied to Australia.

  15. The SA economy is too complex and the nature of civil society here is such that the Zimbabwe scenario is unlikely

    I suspect they will persue intermediate steps which will end up turning the complex economy into a much simpler one, thus making the ultimate goal more achievable.

  16. Rob: while BEE (black economic empowerment) made a lot of struggle stalwarts very very rich with very little effort, it also gave them a personal incentive to keep the economy off the rocks. These are the people who will dethrone Zuma in their own self interest: the constitutional court, criminal court and “best constitution ” have not been able to rein him in.

  17. SMFS

    “There is no Black-run country in the world – except for South Africa – that is not a sh!thole”

    Botswana.

    That said your general point holds. Africa is a mess – of corruption, violence and stupidity. Moreover, negroes generally sink to the bottom of any other society they join – not surprising when the average afro IQ is 65-85 – so it’s best for all that they remain in their natural habitat.

  18. “Africa is a mess – of corruption, violence and stupidity. Moreover, negroes generally sink to the bottom of any other society they join – not surprising when the average afro IQ is 65-85 – so it’s best for all that they remain in their natural habitat.”

    An unpalatable truth

  19. The ‘resource curse’ helps explain why countries with a lot of natural resources fail to develop since instead of relying on co-operation, property rights and rule of law to develop sustainable institutions (Switzerland or Singapore for instance) you simply have an endless transfer of power from one big man with a gun to the next. Africa is blessed with natural resources and cursed with kleptocratic ‘big men’. The correlation is between pigmentation and natural resources I suspect.

  20. Culture influences genetics, genetics favour particular cultural systems. Why would anyone expect people adapted to primitive tribal society to function well in modern western society?

  21. “Culture influences genetics, genetics favour particular cultural systems. Why would anyone expect people adapted to primitive tribal society to function well in modern western society?”

    Because the dogma is that once our ancestors left Africa, human evolution ceased. Never mind that other species evolve rapidly when they move to a different environment or their environment changes — eg industrial melanism in moths.

  22. Theo,

    “Moreover, negroes generally sink to the bottom of any other society they join – not surprising when the average afro IQ is 65-85 – so it’s best for all that they remain in their natural habitat.”

    Do you have a credible link for that claim? If its true I must have been very lucky when I worked in Zimbabwe and SA because every black I worked with was an outlier.

    Anyway SA is different to Zimbabwe in that Zim was about warring tribes with whites getting caught in the middle.

    In SA if you opposed apartheid you joined the ANC no matter what your skin colour or general politics were. The problem was that it was dominated by the communists and other left organisations. After apartheid fell a lot of people were very loyal to the ANC, as were other countries and international organisations, and have forgiven it many sins, that is now changing. Probably too late.

    The guys I worked for in bidding for a 3G licence were all ex MK members and loyal to the ANC, but they definitely weren’t communists, they just wanted an opportunity to get rich in a fair way like everyone else. They didn’t even bear much of a grudge against whites, recognising that most weren’t in the regime. Our build manager, if we’d one the licence was an Afrikaans former soldier who’d probably been in a firefight with the MK guys it transpired over a few beers.

    The one group that weren’t trusted were whites of British descent who’d managed to cling on to their British passports. The reasoning was that they had no skin in the game and if the going got tough would be off, whereas Afrikaners had nowhere to go and had to make post apartheid work.

    As an aside, if anyone wants to understand the events leading up to the end of apartheid I recommend FW De Klerk’s auto biography, The Last Trek, A New Beginning, far better and insightful than Long Bore To Freedom.

  23. @So Much For Subtlety, April 4, 2017 at 8:58 am

    @Theophrastus, April 4, 2017 at 5:21 pm

    @tomsmith, April 4, 2017 at 6:06 pm

    +1 to all above

  24. Ljh,

    “while BEE (black economic empowerment) made a lot of struggle stalwarts very very rich with very little effort, it also gave them a personal incentive to keep the economy off the rocks. These are the people who will dethrone Zuma in their own self interest: the constitutional court, criminal court and “best constitution ” have not been able to rein him in.”

    Good point and prescient. Cosatu has just turned on Zuma which, with a bit of luck, should open the floodgates.

    Theo,

    Thanks but all that’s telling us is that sub Saharan Africans aren’t very good at western IQ tests. It would be interesting to see how China has fared over the past couple of generations.

  25. “Because the dogma is that once our ancestors left Africa, human evolution ceased. Never mind that other species evolve rapidly when they move to a different environment or their environment changes — eg industrial melanism in moths.”

    I guess that’s also the reason for importing lots of people whose ancestors have lived under the rapey, women murdering, boy buggering, murderous, hateful, evil, barbaric and utterly unproductive ROP culture for hundreds and hundreds of years?

    It’s great news to hear that evolution doesn’t work in people because otherwise we would be fucked.

    I guess the direction of European cultural evolution in terms of cooperation, trust and ability to tolerate difference might well end up being a literal physical evolutionary dead end? We do seem to fall for this kind of nonsense over and over again. It is as if we have lost the ability to perceive and react to danger.

  26. “The guys I worked for in bidding for a 3G licence were all ex MK members and loyal to the ANC, but they definitely weren’t communists, they just wanted an opportunity to get rich in a fair way like everyone else. They didn’t even bear much of a grudge against whites, recognising that most weren’t in the regime. Our build manager, if we’d one the licence was an Afrikaans former soldier who’d probably been in a firefight with the MK guys it transpired over a few beers.

    The one group that weren’t trusted were whites of British descent who’d managed to cling on to their British passports. The reasoning was that they had no skin in the game and if the going got tough would be off, whereas Afrikaners had nowhere to go and had to make post apartheid work.

    As an aside, if anyone wants to understand the events leading up to the end of apartheid I recommend FW De Klerk’s auto biography, The Last Trek, A New Beginning, far better and insightful than Long Bore To Freedom.”

    Nice feelgood story.

    Here is some reality:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2935151/south-africa-british-woman-murdered-husband-attacked-gang-home/

  27. BiND

    “Thanks but all that’s telling us is that sub Saharan Africans aren’t very good at western IQ tests.”

    That’s the standard response from the left, but it doesn’t stack up because IQ test results are strongly correlated with (and so can predict) positive life outcomes for individuals in all cultures.

    On average, Chinese and other orientals tend to score higher than westerners on IQ tests.

  28. Theo,

    It was getting late. What I meant by the Chinese was how quickly the Flynn Effect kicked in. I’d like to see how they were doing in the middle of the cultural revolution and how that changed as the country got richer.

    And I do accept there’s a lot going on around IQ testing but I’d like to know about the history of IQ testing before accepting that sub Saharan Africans will always have a lower IQ that westerners, which is the implication.

    The difference between me and the general left is I’ll accept the hypothesis and listen to the data, I’ll just not accept an assertion. Even the stuff you link to isn’t conclusive:

    ” It is suggested that this estimate should be considered in light of the Flynn Effect. It is concluded that more psychometric studies are needed to address the issue of measurement bias of western IQ tests for Africans.”

    And yes I’m aware they feel uncomfortable with their results and that comment is to salve their conscience and give the wiggle room, but is still an issue nonetheless.

  29. @BiND If the ex-MK members said they’d been in a firefight with an ex-SANDF soldier, the chances are they were bullshitting. (They probably would have been dead). MK was an embarrassment as a fighting force. The fighting was done mostly in Northern Namibia and Angola by SWAPO and MPLA assisted by the Cubans. There was almost no fighting in South Africa. MK (and the PAC lot) specialised in blowing up innocent unarmed citizens in bars and railway stations and necklacing their own people.
    I only have a South African passport, by the way, am not an Afrikaner and also need to make this place work. My offspring, on the other hand, although SJW like most teenage kids, will be off to greener pastures soon after university. That’s if our unis even last another few years with the incompetent cowards in charge of them.

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