She would say this, wouldn’t she?

Sturgeon said the prime minister’s decision was a “huge political miscalculation”

Her party has all but 5* of the seats that country sends to Westminster. They’re unlikely to ever be in a better position. Why mess that up with an election before there has to be one?

* And as far as I am aware it is all but 5. Yes, one Lib Dem, one Lab, one Con and two independents.

28 comments on “She would say this, wouldn’t she?

  1. Well, the SNP are experts in miscalculation (see their ‘economic’ ‘plans’) so she should know.

  2. …And the electorate have had the chance to see some of the absolute zoomers who made it through SNP vetting at the last election. Very good chance that “soft” SNP supporters will think twice about sending the likes of Dr Paul Monaghan or Corrie Wilson back to Westminster.

  3. May has just guaranteed another referendum will happen sooner rather than later. Mandate’s the word in Zoomerland. A secondary issue for May but not one to be welcomed

  4. Because the SNP will have a manifesto commitment to hold one overwhelmingly backed by the Scottish electorate.

  5. Not 50% in last GE Hugh, albeit close.

    If they get 45% of the popular vote this time, what overwhelming mandate will they have?

    May is popular, so it could well happen. Especially if Leavers vote Tory.

  6. As Broon himself had proved in a court of law manifesto “commitments” have all the legal force of what the lawdogs call “mere p(o)uffs” in advertising.

  7. When your enemies start accusing you of “political miscalculation”, it’s really a smart move.

    This is basically the 2nd Brexit referendum, a referendum on May’s direction, but the opponents aren’t just going to done with full force. “Don’t like the way I’m doing it, like what Tim Farron wants to do? You’ll get Tim Farron’s way, and Tim Farron doing it”. That’s enough to put anyone off Tim Farron’s way.

  8. Be interesting to see if the Shy Tory factor holds strike this time around.

    I said that the Conservatives would win last time around, and the polls were understating Tory support.

    Their lead is so commanding this time, the protest vote may well turn out in force, but the seats that look likely to swing may balance that out. Mulling over a punt on a 100 plus majority….

  9. Bloke in Wiltshire – “When your enemies start accusing you of “political miscalculation”, it’s really a smart move.”

    I don’t know. I think appointing that washed-out gollywog Corbyn to lead the Labour Party was a political miscalculation.

    It was, you know. Although perhaps you need to consider the alternatives.

  10. “Because the SNP will have a manifesto commitment to hold one overwhelmingly backed by the Scottish electorate.”

    Shrug.

  11. Surprising comment from Sturgeon.

    Would have expected her to say that the election “represented a fundamental change in the relationship between Scotland and the rest of the UK”, and “hence a referendum on independence was long overdue”

    But so does everything else.

  12. John Square,

    What no-one is factoring in is the effect on UKIP, where it matters. In the south of England, I think UKIP will mostly disappear. They’ll mostly switch to Conservative. UKIP will gain in the north, but against Labour.

    The opposition is a right mess. There’s 5 opposition parties and after this election, they’re nearly all going to have had a reasonable share of the vote. The LDs will regain some stature. The Green vote will grow. UKIP will do well in Old Labour north. The LDs will see some growth in urban areas.

    I know a Green on Facebook talking about a “progressive alliance”. But, in that case, just merge with Labour. Is there any real difference between the two parties now?

  13. Some good news this morning is that the bvck toothed cvnt Farron has been branded an “absolute disgrace” by Owen Jones and assorted luvvies ain’t too pleased with him either.

  14. BiW – I was wondering about this. UKIP are still polling up to 10%. But in an actual election what is the point in voting for them this time around?

    Their raison d’etre is now the Conservative Party’s primary policy.

    Even as a protest vote it would be pointless. If UKIP voters go Blue it could even be the first absolute majority in the popular vote since the 1930s.

  15. We are paying an awfully large amount of attention to Sturgeon, far more than she merits. Her statements will be identical regardless of what happens in the rest of the UK. just shrug and say ‘whatever’.

  16. magnusw,

    “BiW – I was wondering about this. UKIP are still polling up to 10%. But in an actual election what is the point in voting for them this time around?”

    Because their presence in the North is more about everything but the referendum. There’s a vacuum in places like Stoke. Sort of people who are traditionally Labour but aren’t into the right-on aspects of Corbyn. And they see UKIP as making the right sort of noise. They still managed a reasonable 2nd in the Stoke by-election.

    I think there will still be some support down south, but I think most of it will switch to Conservative.

  17. I suspect UKIP is headed for the buffers. Their USP was a referendum. The Tories delivered. This leaves UKIP with fuckall in the basket for anyone who swung into their camp. The Brits are a moderate people- they’ll trust May to deliver a sensible deal.

    I suspect most people are worried about a fundamentalist Brexit, and sufficiently concerned to go with the Conservatives who have a more pragmatic view than any other party on the detail of negotiation.

    I think there’s more support for Brexit than polls tend to pick out- the fact that the economy has improved since the referendum will solidify support behind the leave party, which is generally agreed to be the conservatives

  18. Currently, the SNP have all but 5 MPs, but immediately following the election it was all but 3. Michelle Thomson withdrew from the SNP whip after her business became the subject of a police investigation into alleged irregularities regarding property deals, and Natalie McGarry withdrew from the SNP whip after being named as under investigation by the police regarding financial discrepancies relating to Women for Independence, a campaign organisation for which she is a founder. That’s reduced them from 56 to 54 from 59 total MPs for Scotland. Alistair Carmichael of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, David Mundell of the Scottish Conservative Party and Ian Murray of the Scottish Labour Party are the other three MPs who weren’t SNP in 2015.

    For all the discussion of UKIP, unless Nigel Farage makes a return, there’s no point. There are rumours flying around that he and Aaron Banks, along with a couple of others, will start a new political party (well in time for the general election) as they feel UKIP has served its purpose.

  19. Indeed. Now that Farage and UKIP have saved the Tories from themselves it must be time for BluLabour to steal the credit.

    Tho’ in truth we owe as much to the fetid bungling of two evil leftist clowns Broon and Camoron. The One-Eyed Snotgobbler put his ego ahead of the Euro and the C-Moron saved the day and gave us our chance for freedom by being as thick as pigshit mixed with concrete.

  20. Chester, the SNP are going to win most of the seats up here. Surgeon doesn’t need 50% of the vote on U.K. General election, just as May doesn’t need 50%.

  21. “the C-Moron saved the day and gave us our chance for freedom by being as thick as pigshit mixed with concrete”

    Tough one to argue with..

  22. “Because the SNP will have a manifesto commitment to hold one overwhelmingly backed by the Scottish electorate.”

    No, they won’t. They’ve got lots of seats but it’s comically disproportional.

  23. @JohnSquare “I suspect most people are worried about a fundamentalist Brexit, and sufficiently concerned to go with the Conservatives who have a more pragmatic view than any other party on the detail of negotiation.”

    Indeed. All you have to do is point at Farron, Corbyn, Sturgeon et al and ask them if they’d prefer them negotiating on our behalf.

    There is the possibility of a Remain protest vote, but I suspect this will only work in Labour seats going to the Liberal Democrats.

  24. The two independents are both SNP MPs who’ve been fired by the SNP for being exceptionally useless. They will take those seats back, presumably with less useless candidates

    The SNP have a decent shot at taking the one Labour seat (it was only held because the SNP candidate got caught being an arse on the internet when it was too late to replace him; the SNP disowned him and Labour got home by default).

    The Lib Dem and the Tory should be OK, and there are maybe four or five seats that one of those parties could take from the SNP (the two smallest SNP majorities are over the Lib Dems, and the Tories are on the up a bit in Scotland), especially because the last remnants of the Labour vote are going to disappear to either the Lib Dems or Tories in places where they get an endless stream of leaflets (Lib Dems) or Facebook adverts (Tories) saying “vote for us or the SNP, Labour don’t have a chance”.

    So that probably means SNP gain three MPs and lose 2-4 – net zero or +/-1.

    Obviously they have more to lose than to gain, but they’re likely to end up more or less where they were.

  25. @Tim Worstall

    * And as far as I am aware it is all but 5. Yes, one Lib Dem, one Lab, one Con and two independents.

    Yes and no:

    Natalie McGarry:
    Elected as SNP MP for Glasgow East May 2015.
    In November 2015, following allegations of financial misconduct, McGarry withdrew from the party whip while the matter was investigated.[4] In September 2016, McGarry was charged with a number of fraud offences relating to apparent discrepancies in the finances of the SNP Glasgow Regional Association and Women for Independence.

    Michelle Thomson:
    Elected as SNP MP for Edinburgh West May 2015.
    Resigned from SNP September 2015 when Police Scotland announced it had launched an inquiry into “alleged irregularities” related to the property transactions

    Thus, not true independents

    +

    Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh SNP MP:
    Sequestration by HMRC dropped Jan 2017

    SNP seems to like fraudsters as their MPs

  26. SNP could campaign on the promise of a unilateral declaration of independence if they win by a crushing majority.

    That’s Craig Murray’s plan, anyway.

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