34 comments on “So, today’s the day

  1. Would indeed be hilarious. And would leave the bulk of voters to pick their poison, as it were…

  2. How transparent is the voting system? Is there some method by which a mysterious amount of votes from the overseas territories can be added in at a later date if things look rather close and it can be swung against Le Pen/Melenchon? As in the Maastricht vote some years ago?

  3. “Is there some method by which a mysterious amount of votes from the overseas territories can be added in at a later date if things look rather close and it can be swung against Le Pen/Melenchon?”

    Hélas, due to a computer error they’ve already issued two voting slips per elector in the overseas territories. This regrettable accident will be investigated after the election.

    P.S. I haven’t just made that up.

  4. Hélas, due to a computer error they’ve already issued two voting slips per elector in the overseas territories. This regrettable accident will be investigated after the election.

    But any French citizen who has had the wherewithal to pack their bags and leave France, probably won’t be a fan of Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

    I bet many of them left when the current idiot occupying the Élysée Palace (François Hollande) came to power on the back of a promise of 75% income tax rates. I doubt that the 100% income tax rates of Mélenchon will find much favour in that part of the electorate.

    Regardless, we won’t see a winner this weekend, just the reduction of the peloton to Mélenchon and Le Pen as I doubt very much that Le Pen will get the 50% necessary for an outright win.

    Will the latest round of Islamic terrorism be enough to put Le Pen ahead? I just don’t know…the politics of France is more polarised than I’ve ever seen it.

  5. > How transparent is the voting system?

    Wasn’t it overseas votes that swung France’s agreement to Maastricht in their referendum?

    I can remember older Eurosceptic politicians saying that on the night, it looked clear that France would vote against, then the overseas votes arrived…

  6. @John Galt

    Yes, but both hate the EU and want to leave the Euro and ‘protect’ French industries and the code du travail.

    In that respect, there’s little choose between them.

  7. Would indeed be hilarious. And would leave the bulk of voters to pick their poison, as it were…

    Just like the last couple of French presidential elections then?

    The French have put themselves in exactly the same position as the Americans — constantly running shitty establishment candidates until people break and start voting for outsiders.

  8. Er…France Outre-mer is a rather different constituency to the expat French. Not saying leaving the choice of French President to the good people of Saint Pierre and Miquelon is such a bad idea, though.

  9. Dunno much/anything about frog politics, and school left me with the barest smattering of halting Frenchtalk and a vague sense that La Rochelle is their most important city, somehow.

    But I’ll toast them if they vote for the magnifique moderne Jean D’Arc, Mme Le Pen.

    Mange tout, Timmy. Mange tout!

  10. Other Steve – Yarp, but on the other hand: who gives an aeronautique merde about their labour policy?

    I’m not interested in protecting French industries. I’m very interested in protecting the existence of French people.

    There was a famous essay in America calling 2016 the Flight 93 Election.

    I.e. the passenger-voters had a chance to storm the cockpit before the pilots deliberately crashed the plane into the dungheap of globalism. For the future planned by America’s elites is one where life gets progressively and irretreivably shittier for the citizenproles while the hordes of Usurper-Americans, imported – with malice aforethought – from the vast teeming Third World fleshpots, twerk in the ruins of Western civilisation.

    I reckon this – and every plebiscite till Reconquista 2.0 – is France’s Bataclan election.

    Prince Hamlet was right.

  11. “I bet many of them left when the current idiot occupying the Élysée Palace (François Hollande) came to power on the back of a promise of 75% income tax rates. I doubt that the 100% income tax rates of Mélenchon will find much favour in that part of the electorate.”

    Thats the whole point. If Le Pen and/or Melenchon look like squeezing into the second round, and there’s only a few votes in it, how simple will it be to add a few boxes of Macron or Fillon votes to the overseas votes, to ensure one of them makes it through? As you say the overseas territories are not likely to be Le Pen or Melenchon voters, so as long as they keep the turnout below 100% who’s going to argue?

  12. “And St Pierre & Miquelon voted yesterday.
    So le tout Paris already knows the result.”

    The result there is probably something of an adjustable parameter.

  13. We all like a laugh at the expense of the French, but I fear this could be a slow motion car crash.

    The FN may have policies that broadly reflect the situation we can expect here post-Brexit, but unlike UKIP which has reached its position from a technocratic starting point in the Alan Sked era (and isn’t actually in power), th FN has an altogether more worrying heritage. Certain elements on the French left won’t need any more provocation than Le Pen in the Elysee to start all sorts of mayhem.

    Having said that the alternatives are pitiful: corrupt Fillon, shallow Macron, two-raisins-short-of-a-full-fruitcake Melenchon, and seven others including the Parti Socialiste too pathetic to merit a mention.

  14. From the #radiolondres twitter thing:
    Exit poll by Datoworld
    Macron 22.7%
    Le Pen 21,5%
    Fillon 20,6%
    Melenchon 20.2%

  15. I admit to some amusement when the French slip up, because they’re French. But a choice between Le Pen and Melenchon would be a disaster and Le Pen coming second to Macron would be a big problem.

    Part of me wants France to be poorer than the U.K., but a more adult part wants them to have the sort of economic freedom that everyone benefits from. Hard leftists like Le Pen and Melenchon don’t offer that.

    And Le Pen won’t protect western civilisation – she’ll just give the anti-west left more ammunition. The problem is not immigration per se but the importation of foederati. Le Pen would just let the French establishment double down on that mistake.

  16. As BIS says, outre-mers isn’t like ex-pats. Nor are they “territories”. They aren’t like say, Bermuda or Gibraltar that basically balance they’re books. They’re more like Northern Ireland, living off France.

  17. Charlie – Forgive me, mon ami, but I humbly believe this to be les bollocks fantastique:

    Le Pen won’t protect western civilisation – she’ll just give the anti-west left more ammunition.

    Eh, how? What are they gonna do, scream raaaaythist! or summat? Assail her with poncy hashtags? Double down on infecting society’s cultural bloodstream with liquid AIDS?

    Of course. But they’ll do that anyway.

    And – you know that famous sundial inscription – “it’s later than you think?” That’s the time currently.

    The problem is not immigration per se but the importation of foederati.

    Unless we’re talking about the tiny-scale migration of Belgian accountants and Spanish hairdressers, immigration as a whole is the bloody problem.

    Focusing only on the more head choppy, child-rapey, lorry-massacrey Mussulmen is like American Indians circa 1800 saying “well, I don’t think much of their gun-toting cavalrymen, but those paleface blanket salesmen and whisky merchants seem OK!”

  18. “The FN may have policies that broadly reflect the situation we can expect here post-Brexit …”: eh? Care to elaborate?

  19. @dearime
    FN policies:
    1. Renegotiate with EU – in practice Frexit
    2. Leave euro
    3. Leave Schengen
    4. Low immigration target

    Then if we ignore their protectionist​ trade policies they are broadly in line with UK policy.

  20. “she’ll just give the anti-west left more ammunition.”

    Oh, noes! She’ll make the Muslims hate us, too!

    Anyone know the election rules in France? Unless someone gets 50%, then runoff between top 2?

    Looks like Macron and Le Pen now, if that’s the deal. Neither remotely near 50%.

  21. “Le Pen won’t protect western civilisation – she’ll just give the anti-west left more ammunition.
    Eh, how? What are they gonna do, scream raaaaythist! or summat? ”

    The anti-west don’t need any ammunition from Le Pen. Her mere existence in power will be enough for them to claim to be provoked, after which they will no doubt try to get their retaliation in first before waving the victim card. After all the terror related deaths in the last few years, it could get very bloody.

  22. @Chris Miller

    Sorry, no, it was but a humble tweet.

    Here is a graphic to show the results as they come in for those who are interested and who haven’t found what they want elsewhere.

    I’m with TIS on this because France needs to be rebooted but the French are unable to see past their own short term interests so the options are:
    Fillon – a continuing but dignified decline;
    Macron – continuation Hollande so an undignified decline with plenty of verbiage and vacuity;
    Melenchon – Venezuela NOW!
    Le Pen – chaos

    Only the Le Pen option offers the chance of a positive outcome.

  23. Macron is channelling Blair, something for everyone, and hoping that his teacher seduces the media. In France, it might be a winning combination. It worked for Blair often enough

  24. ‘The May 7 runoff now places the controversial, right-wing nationalist Le Pen against the centrist, Pro-European Union Macron.’

    The press says Le Pen is ‘right-wing,’ and Macron is a ‘centrist.’

    “So you must vote for Macron” is my takeaway.

    Is he really a centrist*? He supports the EU and embraces the Muslim invasion, seeming pretty left to me.**

    *This is not the time for a centrist, anyway, even if he really is one.

    **There is no left-wing to the press. Left is normal; right is extreme.

  25. If it was MAOR Europe (Macron) vs less EU (Le Pen) She would win by a landslide.
    Unfortunately she comes with baggage, he doesn’t. No one here knows anyting about Macron’s actual policies.

    And what about that not-so-Albright quote about the special circle of hell for not voting for the woman candidate? Marine should therefore win with about 75%.

    But she won’t.

  26. No, she won’t. In the second round the losers’ votes will go to Macron – so it’s continuity Hollande and France in further decline.

    One interesting observation, albeit a slightly academic one, is the number of communes in which Mélenchon and Le Pen are jockeying for first and second place while neighbouring communes with much the same social and economic profile have them the other way round.

  27. TiS, you gave yourself away with “musselmen”. Still, I, like many others, enjoy your pretence of literate, jaunty ignorance. Keep it up, dear boy. As the actress said to the bish. Oh, and the La Rochelle thing was brilliant.

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