13 comments on “Bugger

  1. There’s free money on the table if you’re confident about your prediction. The bookies are offering 1:1.12 odds on a Macron victory. No other financial product offers a 12% return in two weeks.

  2. Somebody else on here I believe pointed out the Macmillan quote a while ago.

    Given that all of France’s far-too-abundant leftist scum will unite to put the kibosh on Le Pen then we are present at pretty much the End of France –in every sense of the word. The end of the nation and all of the bell ends who have voted for their own destruction.

  3. The outcome depends on the RoPers actually keeping the peace for two weeks. Another Nice or Bataclan could tip the odds.

  4. Given the FN are really a Left Wing party would the Melenchon voters not tend to vote for Le Pen? And as Fillon was courting the nationalist anti Islamist vote in his campaign, would his voters not also at least be as likely to vote Le Pen as Macron? Or will the French just do what they always do and vote to kick the can a bit further down the road with another establishment lackey?

  5. @Jim Macron will get a lot of the Fillon voters, some of the Melenchon voters, most of the Hamon voters (plus votes from the assorted other Socialists) and a fair number of voters against Le Pen who didn’t vote in the first round. It is hard to see more votes going to Leave Pen absent a significant “event”.

  6. If terrorism was going to tip it for Le Pen it would have tipped it by now. There is nothing an additional attack could do.

    The question is how many people are undecided – reportedly it is something like 40%. Did they vote in the first round? If not, they may break for Le Pen. In fact it is quite likely she will get many of them as no one is really undecided.

    I hope she does it this time. I don’t think she will. But perhaps God willing, France will be saved.

  7. “If terrorism was going to tip it for Le Pen it would have tipped it by now. There is nothing an additional attack could do.”

    Not so sure about that. If, God forbid, there should be another Bataclan-scale attack, then we could expect statements not only from M. Le President, but also his two heirs presumptive.

    I really don’t understand the appeal of Macron. If the French really want to change the style of politics, why go for an ENArque like Macron? If they want the same old, surely there must be others with more experience and a real party behind them.

  8. To me, the French are like nestlings, squawking away, demanding the next worm. Most of all, they don’t want to take any responsibility for where that worm will come from. The ‘government’ must provide.

  9. Somebody else on here I believe pointed out the Macmillan quote a while ago.

    Do you mean the one about De Gaulle scuppering British chances of joining the EEC in November 1967 when Macmillan said:

    The French always betray you in the end.

    Not sure that is actually the case here though. The French have eliminated the communist Jean-Luc Mélenchon and in so doing have removed the element of extreme polarisation from the final round of voting (i.e. a Mélenchon versus Le Pen match which would likely have gone to Le Pen)

    What they are left with in the final round is a centrist versus an opponent of the right, so it is a reasonable expectation that Macron will win on the basis that people who would have voted for the other candidates will vote for Macron, not because they support him or his policies, but simply to deny Le Pen the presidency.

    As for taking a 1/8 bet on Macron, there is still a random factor in this outside of the political, which is the role of the Muslim terrorists like Daesh who actually seem to want Le Pen elected so that she will alienate the large Muslim population and lead to further radicalisation.

    I would not put it past them to unleash another wave of Islamic terror in France to try and get Le Pen elected.

  10. Rioting kicked off last night, 140 arrested. Rioters were “anti-fascist” and “anti-capitalist”. Presumably the latter was aimed at Macron, unless they were complaining that the capitalists were too poor to make the shortlist.

  11. Voting for her old man was a protest vote.
    But this time her voters really did want Marine le Pen to win.
    Opinion polls of the police show they are about 65% pro le Pen.

    Not this time, but 2022 seems likely.

  12. Voting for her old man was a protest vote. But this time her voters really did want Marine le Pen to win. Opinion polls of the police show they are about 65% pro le Pen.

    Not this time, but 2022 seems likely.

    But 5 years down the line is 5-years of increased Islamic immigration without integration. How many more terrorist attacks will there be in France between now and then?

    Based upon the last few years alone, I would suspect there will be more than one and the methods will not be bombs, but attacks like the Nice truck massacre and Bataclan.

    Just because IS may be defeated as a pseudo-state in Syria and Iraq does not mean their terrorist attacks will diminish, in fact I expect the opposite, as the IS terrorists return home they will bring their violence and hatred of anyone not sharing their own version of Islam with them.

    These bastards are a threat to not only non-Muslims, but also the vast majority of peaceful Muslims in Western society of which France has quite a lot.

  13. “peaceful Muslims in Western society of which France has quite a lot.”

    It’s about to have substantially fewer. A quarter of French teenagers are Muslims, and about half of those are radicals who identify more with their correligionists in the Middle East than with France.

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