No more petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within eight years. The entire market for land transport will switch to electrification, leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century.
This is the futuristic forecast by Stanford University economist Tony Seba. His report, with the deceptively bland title Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, has gone viral in green circles and is causing spasms of anxiety in the established industries.
There’s a lot more technological inertia in an economy than that.
We’ve not actually got a viable electric car as yet. That is, one which people will willingly buy unsubsidised. OK, but not one in volume. The Model T was probably the first mass market car, came out in 1913. When was the last pony trap sold? As something other than a toy or recreation? 1930s sometime for the US and UK maybe? Amish are fun but don’t count here.
Technological change just doesn’t happen that fast.