Squeaky bum time

The Conservative Party could be in line to lose 20 seats and Labour gain nearly 30 in next week’s general election, according to new modelling by one of the country’s leading pollsters.

YouGov’s first constituency-by- constituency estimate of the election result predicts that the Tories would fall short of an overall majority by 16 seats, leading to a hung parliament.

I don’t think she will but it is at least possible that May will lose this one.

Either that or YouGov is hilariously wrong in its weightings.

77 comments on “Squeaky bum time

  1. Oh my goodness. How rubbish do you need to be to fail to beat Corbyn? Or are there enough people now of majority age who can’t remember what a mess his ilk made of things in the 1970’s, and actually think it will all be socialist sunshine and lollipops?

    Part of me is horrified; part of me fascinated.

  2. It is what you get when you get nick Timothy to come up with campaigning strategy instead of listening to Crosby.

    May deserves to loose if she listened to an egg head political adviser above Crosby and I hear ex-media honcho Fiona hill advised against the sticky ‘dementia tax’.

    May is awful and a moron

  3. May has not transformed.

    She is still the very incompetent wet with authoritarian tendencies that she was before.

    She has no guiding beliefs, is the worst kind of follower of Blair and she is going to destroy the country, either through stupidity or through allowing Corbyn near number 10.

  4. I watched the Newsnight ‘Generation Gap’ debate past night. I truly believe the country has gone mental. The shouting down of Dominic Raag when he tried to explain the difference between debt and defecit was unbelievable. Ukip’s -excellent – spokesman was howled down and laughed at by the entire audience (and I do meant he entire audience) when he pointed out what should be an irrefutable link between immigration and house prices.

    I am frightened.

  5. My boss is making serious efforts to cast a (proxy) vote whilst away on holiday next week, after previously being unconcerned (didn’t bother with postal). If May can’t motivate the conservative and sane bases, the prospect of Corbyn, Abbott and co certainly will.

  6. This is what happens when Marxian scum are allowed to get at theYOOF.

    Purge and purge now.

    You Gov is of course part of the MSM crew pushing the left’s agenda. It is highly unlikely that the British have done an about face on their animosity for Marxist tyranny and rule-by-RoP.

    Corby is such obvious scum and he and his gang have made fools of themselves so many times on national media so many times that the chance of him winning is small.

    If he offered a real Brexit and action against the RoP he might still have a chance. But for every fault and failing of May Corby would do far worse.

    Lets not overlook the sloth and stupidity of lard-arsed BluLab scum like Camoron and May who have had years to fix ZaNu’s advantage by changing the boundaries and ending/reforming postal votes and did NOTHING.

    I want the BluLab cow to have the wind taken out of her patronising police state jumped up sails –but not at the expense of Brexit and my countries future.

    Piss on Yougov and vote for Brexit on the 8th.

  7. Ironman–It’s the fucking BBC–of course it will be a handpicked audience of mostly young socialist scum howling their rage against reason and common sense.

    Purge and purge now.

  8. bilbaoboy

    “She is still the very incompetent wet with authoritarian tendencies that she was before.”

    Exactly.

  9. This poll looks as though it has given undue weight to the intention to vote among 18-24s. Polls that model on previous general election voting patterns are showing double-digit Tory leads. So we shall see. I suspect The Times have seen something eye-catching but not necessarily significant in the YouGov data sets and confected their story thus. Or it’s part of an attempt to get the Tory vote out next week.

    What is clear is that May started a country mile ahead and has, along with her advisers, rather mucked things up. As has been said above, they should have listed to Crosby and produced a manifesto filled with encouraging blandishments.

    My Tory membership direct debit goes out tomorrow. If she can’t stick it to Jez Bollah and his band of fantasists, I’ll be sending the card back snipped up into little bits.

    Honestly, democracy, eh? It’s wasted on the voters.

  10. Lets not overlook the sloth and stupidity of lard-arsed BluLab scum like Camoron and May who have had years to fix ZaNu’s advantage by changing the boundaries and ending/reforming postal votes and did NOTHING.

    Blocked by the so-called ‘Liberal’ ‘Democrats’ in a super-sulk following their loss of the AV referendum they demanded.

  11. Picture after picture after picture of Corbyn with the most vile terririses we can find are published; nothing, no reaction. People see a cuddly uncle and love hin for those pictures. A terror is blows our kids sky high in Manchester, Corbyn says he had a point cos the West and Trump and stuff. We agree with him; the kids can b dealt with by a mawkish Facebook post. He can’t do his sums. Doesn’t matter cos the woman ask g the questions is a “Zionist”and everyone knows they’re a bunch of scum bankers and brothel keepers right.

    It’s fucking madness.

  12. Nick Timothy needs to be given the boot. Or May needs a visit from the men in grey suits. She really is a fool – one that believes her own BS.

  13. > May started a country mile ahead and has … rather mucked things up.

    This. It’s the same as Hillary Clinton’s campaign. May could have played it safe, walked it in; instead she’s snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. She’s lucky that Corbyn and his team keep making bigger mistakes.

  14. @Ironman
    “Ukip’s -excellent – spokesman was howled down and laughed at by the entire audience (and I do meant he entire audience) when he pointed out what should be an irrefutable link between immigration and house prices.”
    It is sadly common.

  15. Andrew – Hillary played it safe tho. Far too safe.

    I don’t know what possessed Mrs May to announce an unpopular policy during a General Election that she called, supposedly because Brexit. But I’m guessing it was the ghost of Laurel and/or Hardy.

    Another factor is Manchester. May seems to think the electorate will vote for her by default because dead children.

    But why should they? She’s done nothing to stop future Islamic mass murders. Why should voters care about her dried-up platitudes and hopes-n-prayers, hopes-n-prayers, hopes-n-prayers? It’s just noise.

    Yes, Jez is useless on immigra-terror. How is May better?

  16. Keep your heads. The swing is a manipulation by the pollsters, doing exactly what they did with Brexit and Trump. A nice little betting opportunity is developing for a big Con majority.

  17. Ironman–Tell Jarvis to check your feedback loops.

    How the Hell do you know-exactly- that the entire country considers Corby a “Teddy bear”. You are working yourself into a state sans reason.

    Most of the media sources you are consulting are run by the supporters and fellow travellers of the same gang as Corbo. You live in Liverpool which is rotten with leftists who would for Satan if he stood for ZaNu never mind Corbyn.

    This is part of your delusion that you are special and everybody else is a moron. The dark side of narcissism if you like.

  18. The swing is ‘manipulation’ by the people being polled who are cross and bored.

  19. Chris Miller–Boundary changes blocked by Lib Dems.

    Bollocks. How hard do you think that BluLab stooge Camoron tried? He knocked with a sponge, nobody was home so he gave up.

    And the LimpDicks could hardly of stopped postal vote reform–unless they wanted to make a public stand in favour of vote cheating.

  20. Hhhhm. The thing I’ve been hearing is just how personable and ‘nice’ Corbyn is coming across as and people are finding that refreshing.

    This has also been hidden from most folks because he really has been consistently monstered by most of the media. Even Peter Hitchens has noted that.

    I doubt he’ll get in but there’s a huge gap in the market for a politician like that. Farage had that but was also, may I say, a teeny bit divisive.

    Folks worrying if Labour or Tories get in give governments far too much credit for their claimed ability to manage anything.

  21. @Ironman

    “A terror is [sic] blows our kids sky high in Manchester, Corbyn says he had a point cos the West and Trump and stuff.”

    He is no different from you, who has spent years on this very forum denouncing anyone who criticises Islamism as racist. Your chickens are coming home to roost; next time maybe somebody you know or love will be hit by the shit.

  22. What’s so dispiriting is the Tory bunch of incompetent cunts have to be the preferred option to run the UK in the coming election.Being slightly less horrifying than the Labour bunch of incompetent cunts, not to mention the iboc’s from the minor parties. (And I’d include UKIP in the iboc category)
    There’s none of them you’d trust to be able to organise a piss up in a brewery.

  23. It looks like the average poll gives May a majority of around 70. So 5 more years of New Labour policies, then. And more surveillance, more economic interventionism, more nanny statism, more debt….

  24. @Doug
    The problem is that Governments rarely make things better, but they sure as hell can make things worse. Imagine a progressive alliance of Labour, Lib Dems and the SNP running things. It could happen.

    Somehow or another they’d weasel out of Brexit. Probably by negotiating such an awful deal hen holding a referendum on it which would be lost. We’d then be back in the EU with a considerably weakened bargaining position, with the only escape being the inevitable collapse of the whole edifice, as it dissolves in chaos during the rest of our lives.

    More taxes, more unskilled immigration, more lifestyle regulation, more restriction of free speech. Posting on blogs like this could become a hazardous activity. Plus if they can win this one, I can’t see how we could stop them winning the next couple too.

    Make no mistake this is a consequential election. The ghastly cow is an idiot, but the alternative is much, much worse.

  25. There will still be a landslide, or something very close to one. Don’t forget that a week or so before the EU Referendum, there were stories floating around about Remain winning 60/40.

  26. Just a thought.
    Way back I remember Labour being elected as the majority group on the GLC with an innocuous and forgettable leader called Mac something. Once elected they changed leader to Livingstone.
    Corbyn never seems to know the party position without help
    Perhaps Labour are proposing a similar trick, replacing the aparantly harmless old duffer with someone lacking his personal appeal?

  27. Who’s doing their numbers? Diane Abbott?

    Mark my words: YouGov are going to be a laughing stock after this poll.

    ComRes are predicting 100+ majority for the Conservatives, which I think is going to be about right.

  28. Ironman – “Ukip’s -excellent – spokesman was howled down and laughed at by the entire audience (and I do meant he entire audience) when he pointed out what should be an irrefutable link between immigration and house prices.”

    You c*nt. You sanctimonious, self-righteous, hypocritical, lying piece of crap. What did they do? Call him a thick racist pr!ck?

    You are not one of Us. You are one of Them. We all know it. And we will never forget it.

  29. I am not following this story closely but I think someone said it was a model not a poll.

    I have no idea but if Labour picks up a single seat I will demand a military coup and a Handmaiden-style Theocracy. We deserve no better.

  30. SMFS,

    “I have no idea but if Labour picks up a single seat I will demand a military coup and a Handmaiden-style Theocracy. We deserve no better.”

    They might grab a few in university/public sector cities. But I’m canvassing in a marginal seat and this poll doesn’t match what we’re hearing at all. Maybe they’re shy about it, but I haven’t met a single switcher to Labour yet.

  31. Interested

    You’re under the influence of the Rough again mate. I have never denounced anyone who condemns Islamist facism, ever. I am happy to say that anyone who links it to Muslims is a Thick.Racist.Prick.

  32. “I am happy to say that anyone who links it to Muslims is a Thick.Racist.Prick.”

    That is colossally dumb even for you Ironman.

    And Hitler/Uncle Joe/Mao. etc,etc ad nauseam wasn’t a real–whatever.

  33. What BilbaoBoy said, in spades.

    May’s problem, apart from May herself, is that it is no good campaigning on the basis of being more “Primie Ministerial” than Corbyn if you can’t actually show yourself to be very Prime Ministerial. Nobody doubts that May beats Corbyn because he is so poor on that measure, but while a 5/10 score beats a 1/10 score, it doesn’t get people out to vote.

  34. I have never denounced anyone who condemns Islamist facism, ever. I am happy to say that anyone who links it to Muslims is a Thick.Racist.Prick.

    Lol.

    This is satire, right?

  35. TIS: “This is satire, right?”

    Didn’t he get booed off and banned at the Establishment Club?

  36. “I have never denounced anyone who condemns Islamist facism, ever. I am happy to say that anyone who links it to Muslims is a Thick.Racist.Prick.”

    Eh? What?

    You can’t link Islamic fascism with Muslims?

    Who should you link them to? Jedi Knights?

    Or is this one of those self-deciding bizarre mutually exclusive things? Like you have decided that Islamic fundamentalists are not really Muslims so the two groups are now mutually exclusive simply because you have decided they are? Like announcing that black and white cows are not really cows. So they aren’t.

    I’m bewildered at your view of the world. It must be like some surreal pastel coloured cartoon.

  37. Ecks – Mangetout.

    Andrew – I’m bewildered at your view of the world. It must be like some surreal pastel coloured cartoon.

    Mebbe Ironman is Gordon the Gopher, still in the BBC broom cupboard after all these years, with nothing but t’internet and old tapes of Mysterious Cities of Gold for company.

    It’d explain the childlike naivete, and hanging around with Phillip Schofield would warp anybody’s sense of reality.

    Do doo do doo do
    Ahh ahh ahh
    Do doo do doo do
    Cities of Gold

  38. It’s the usual turd sandwich-snot pizza dilemma. And as usual, most of the time, I shall spoil my ballot paper.

    Mind you, I live in London, so the only party that can hurt is Labour.

  39. It’s a bit like the referendum. Support for Corbyn is extremely high amongst younger people in the cities. Support for Corbyn is low in the shires. And, like the refendum, it might depend on how many younger people turn out to vote this time.

    You’d think, though, that every sane person in the land would turn out to prevent the Commies taking over.

  40. “Support for Corbyn is extremely high amongst younger people in the cities. ”

    And why is that?

    Purge Now.

  41. “It’s the usual turd sandwich-snot pizza dilemma.”

    No, it’s not. The likes of Seamus Milne and Andrew Murray are old-school Communists, even Stalinists. This is not the usual centre-left vs soft-left election.

  42. It was the fox hunting thing I didn’t get. Practically everyone into fox hunting is voting conservative anyway. For a lot of people it’s a very emotive subject. Personally I don’t give a shit either way, although it’s not something I’d enjoy, but there’s got to be a lot of people tht would put off voting for her and absolutely no one who would switch to her for saying that. Bizzare.

    The “dementia tax” likewise. Actually a sound idea in my opinion but fucking hell its obviously going to turn a lot of her own supporters off.

  43. I have never denounced anyone who condemns Islamist facism, ever. I am happy to say that anyone who links it to Muslims is a Thick.Racist.Prick.

    Without doubt the most abjectly stupid thing I have ever read on this blog. And considering it quotes Spud on a daily basis and features semi-literate halfwits like Remainia, that is a pretty poor show.

  44. A Brexit supporting acquaintance of mine says that she will no longer support the Tories this time for that reason.

    See what I mean about May being thick? WTF did she put that in the Manifesto for the silly cow? She could have dropped it into law quietly later on. And since fox hunters are gladdening my heart weekly by taking no fucking notice of the law anyway and getting away with it (cos there are enough of the countryside willing to put fists in coppers faces if push came to shove ) –what does it matter?

    She WILL win I believe but the mistakes and cock-ups will come thick and fast from then on.

  45. Exactly Ecks, Cameron said something like the only people that fox hunting ban affected was him and the Queen. Why even bother mentioning it? Idiocy.

  46. Ironman, you’re a lying shit, and a moral coward of enormous proportions.
    At least have the courage of what we must I suppose call your convictions.
    I specifically remember myself pointing out to you that it could not be racist to criticise Islam as the font of 99% of world terrorism because Islam is not a race but a belief system.
    I pointed out that there are black Somali muslims, yellow Chinese muslims, white Chechen muslims, brown Pakistani muslims, Arabs, Australians, Americans etc etc etc.
    I said that if race motivated a given Briton’s dislike of Islam then you would expect similar animus to be displayed against hindus, sikhs, jains and everyone else outwith the CoE – and that it was not.
    Your reply: I was just a Thick.Racist. Prick.
    This despite your knowing nothing about my skin colour, religious beliefs, or intelligence.
    Half a dozen people above have now weighed in – are they all thick racist pricks, too?

  47. I’m hoping that all this wobble stuff is ‘Get the vote out’ tactics. I really can’t see that there has been some sort of sea change in voters opinions of the two parties (and their leaders) in the last few weeks to suggest that Labour have a a hope in hell of even maintaining their current seat level. The biggest threat to a decent Tory majority IMO was always complacency, well I think this all has delivered a suitable kick to seat of the voters pants to remember to vote otherwise they could end up with Abu Hamza’s mate in No 10.

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Tory vote level that gets close to John Major’s record, if not surpasses it. What sort of majority that translates to is open to question, given the bias against them in the system, but it should be 50-60, which will do.

  48. My new books “Racism for Dummies” and “Racism: My part in its Triumph” are out next month. Both priced at a modest £29 7s and 6d.

  49. @AndrewC: Old Rusty is going through a bit of a cognitive dissonance problem at the moment so you will have to excuse him. He’s trying to reconcile the problem that radical Islam is responsible for 90% of the terrorist activity pretty much globally right now, with his former ‘Islam is the Religion of Peace’ mindset. Its proving a a hard circle to square, so at the moment he’s decided that Islamic terrorists have nothing whatsoever to do with the rest of Islam and they are totally unrelated. Evangelical Christianity, Buddhism and Wicca are just as responsible as Islam is for people shout Allahu Akbar and blowing themselves up at tweeny concerts. He’ll either eventually have a blinding realisation that ‘OMG Islamic terrorists are just following the tenets of Islam to their logical conclusion’ or end up rocking in a corner whimpering ‘Its nothing to do with Islam’ over and over again.

  50. Mr Ecks,

    Modest? You could buy an estate the size of Cambridgeshire for that…

    We are using pre-1066 valuations of the currency yeah? I don’t hold with this modern devalued crap since the Normans have devalued the currency immensely. Bloody foriegners and their reassertion of control of the coinage…

  51. It should have been all about Brexit. It made no sense to try to grab Labour voters while pissing off your base, and then also talk about bringing back fox-hunting, which is going to send a lot of wavering Labour voters back to Labour while doing little to bring out the majority of your core voters.

  52. +1 Tel.

    The only scenario that makes sense to me – other than the most likely, that May is just clueless – is that she’s tried to trade off her expendable majority to get unpopular policies in while she has the chance, but may have overdone it.

    Though if she still gets in with a comfortable majority, I’ll have to change my opinion of her somewhat – though not my approval of her statist politics.

  53. I think the point of promising a free vote on fox hunting was to keep the pro- hunters canvassing. I have heard rumours for years that they were getting fed up with canvassing for the Tories but not getting what they wanted.

  54. It was the fox hunting thing I didn’t get.

    Bear in mind that the opposition to the next government is going to be the House of Cronies.

    I’m hoping that the reason that fox hunting etc went into the manifesto is that the PM can then tell the vermine to fuck off.

  55. The opposition to the next govt is going to be ordinary people who want a hell of a lot more than just Brexit.

    Starting with a RoP rein-in to echo down the ages and the binning of May’s One Nation patronising statist bullshit.

    Esp her plans for a Chi-com style Internet takeover.

  56. I don’t think May will lose this one. Even she is better than Corbyn but I did complain when people were signing up as Labour to get Corbyn elected leader as, at the time, Cameron was useless and would screw it up and who else would there be. Please don’t let me be right on this one.

  57. It was the fox hunting thing I didn’t get. Practically everyone into fox hunting is voting conservative anyway. For a lot of people it’s a very emotive subject.

    It’s worse than that: fox hunting was never banned for all practical purposes, it still goes on just like before. The law made no practical difference, so why the hell try to repeal it? Stupid.

  58. The Conservatives currently could not hit a cow’s arse with a banjo. But the chances of them losing an election to Jezza are up there with Diane Abbott giving birth to the Messiah live on Loose Women: http://bit.ly/2seWQM3

  59. Who the fuck would vote based on Fox Hunting? Would people seriously allow Corbyn into Number Ten because of fucking fox hunting?

  60. It gave me some joy to see this forecast. I want a weak and stable government, and Conservative seats in the 290-320 range gives just that.
    ‘Take back control’ the Leave campaign said
    ‘Stronger in’ said the Remain grouping.
    The view that weak government unable to exercise control was desirable didn’t get a look in.
    But now it could happen. . .

  61. Aaaanyway, calm down dears!

    There have been a bunch of Tory/libertarian/anti-labour peeps bragging on Twatter that they’ve been spamming YouGov polling by logging into their system on multiple devices with multiple accounts and putting down “labour” “definite” every time.

    YouGov are being trolled.

  62. @abacab
    With the end result that it might prompt those who might not have voted to turn out and make sure Corbyn doesn’t get in…

  63. Timmy is not doing his bit: he is over on the Cap X blog running with the fox and chasing with the hounds by speaking very favourably of Land Value Tax which has been espoused by the Labour Party in its manifesto. Perhaps the Purge should start at the top!
    More likely LVT is a non-partisan economic back-up to monetary policy, stopping increases in the money supply leading to land price inflation that ruins the economy. But what does he know? Just because Adam Smith is in favour of LVT !

  64. Arrgh. Looks like we have a Trump vs Clinton re run but I am not sure who is who. Contingency plans being out in place as VAT on school fees, more PAYE, Easily a £10k hit. And that’s before the hidden taxes will ruin things for us.

    It just isn’t possible to extract that much extra without changing incentives. The loss of personal allowance above £100k is just a great opportunity to pay into a pension but the bastards are taking that option away.. as noted elsewhere here the Left don’t seem to realise people can react to economic incentives and do less work, or send their kids to state school. That would be a net loss to the Exchequer but hey… no more privilege and more income equality. Right on.p comrade. Way to go.

  65. Actually even more mad the Left are against making rich pensioners pay for care and want to tax working people even more! Is May trying to loose this election given how she has had a taste of the EU negotiation and doesn’t have the stomach for it?

  66. “May deserves to loose if she listened to an egg head political adviser above Crosby”

    Mind you, Crosby’s the one who wanted it to be all about Theresa May.

    “Who the fuck would vote based on Fox Hunting? Would people seriously allow Corbyn into Number Ten because of fucking fox hunting?”

    Brian May would. Loads of women with Facebook pages that are all about cute animals like baby seals would.

  67. DBC : Why ask us about how to carry out a purge–your mob of murdering cunts are the experts. My Purge only wants leftist scum sacked and off the state’s tit. Your shower of shite have purged millions off the planet.

  68. Rob – “Who the fuck would vote based on Fox Hunting? Would people seriously allow Corbyn into Number Ten because of fucking fox hunting?”

    I am no more likely to take up foxhunting than I am to take up recreational lesbianism and clubbing. But it is the one thing May has done that makes me think better of her.

    Although it would be better for her to point out, repeatedly, that this ban is a farce and it makes British justice look foolish.

    Not that I would let Corbyn win because of fox hunting.

  69. Rob,

    Who the fuck would vote based on Fox Hunting? Would people seriously allow Corbyn into Number Ten because of fucking fox hunting?

    I have a mate, proper Tory, Winchester old boy, and he’s really into environmental issues and animals. I met him when we were doing our Dive Master qualification together in the Philippines. He fly fishes but always releases. He even joined Sea Sheppard but quit/got thrown out* because it was a massive lefty circle jerk where he wasn’t allowed an opinion because he’s a white male. His facebook is a mixture of animal rights/conservation stuff and anti-left wing memes. He’s a top bloke. I particualy like him because he’s like me in that I also am a big fan of conservation but hate the way it’s all been hijacked by the lefties so I’m bascially excluded from participation except the odd beach/reef clean up.

    Anyway, I digress, it seems he’s considering not voting because of the fox hunting. He’s really, really against it.

    *That’s a fun story when I went to town on this Sea Sheppard girl’s FB page and they threatened to chuck him out because of what I was writing. Guilty by association. Cunts.

  70. As I pointed out to the anti-foxhunter I know changing this law makes no difference anyway.

    But animal sentiment is a strong emotion.

    To allow it to put Corbog in would be insanity tho’. I don’t believe it will.

    But it does indicate Dress Up’s lack of nous and lack of vision.

    Vile, patronising One Nation police state crap doesn’t count as vision in my book.

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