Err, how? What?

What laws that is:

The government, he writes, must enact laws that require manufacturing’s share of the GDP to rise from its current 12.5 percent to something closer to the norm for OECD nations—somewhere between 17 percent and 19 percent.

How in buggery do you do that? Let alone why would you want to.

Such a changeover, Uchitelle acknowledges, would require the enactment of steep tariffs, of domestic content standards far stricter than any now on the books, and perhaps a trade war with China and other nations. It would require treating manufacturing as we’ve treated agriculture since the 1930s. “The political maneuvering involved in authorizing the annual farm subsidy once drew headlines and controversy, but now rarely does.” (Of course, that’s partly because the handful of agribusiness giants can lobby behind closed doors.) “We accept that farming is a federally subsidized market activity,” he continues. “Manufacturing must proceed along a similar path.”

Umm, right. Agriculture’s share of GDP has continued to decline though, hasn’t it?

46 comments on “Err, how? What?

  1. Great Thinking! I never liked Alvin Toffler’s Third Wave economy. Let’s all go back to the Second or, if at all possible, the First Wave. Satanic Mills forever!

  2. Government could set up manufacturing facilities and buy the product. Such as say another dozen shipyards to build new warships. New facilities to build new rockets. New facilities to build new cars that the public will be made to drive.
    The fact the government would be spending 80% of its entire budget to do all that rather escapes the idiot.

  3. Thats going to be popular.

    ‘Sorry Mr Chav, your widescreen TV now costs £2k each, instead of about £500, because they’re made in the UK.Also the price of secondhand cars has just doubled overnight, because of the import tariffs on foreign cars. And all the food you buy now costs 50% more, because cheap imports have been banned. And your wife can’t buy cheap pinot grigio anymore either, so she’ll be permanently pissed off, and you won’t get laid.
    But you can have a nice job working in a factory making widgets if you like!’

  4. I doubt that this could ‘really’ be achieved at all, and we would certainly not want to ‘really’ try.

    But suppose we abolished (say) payroll taxes on all workers employed by companies that either have ‘Manufacturing’ in their name, or – more stringently – do at least something that counts as actual manufacturing? Either way, a huge swathe of activities (finance, marketing, legal, accounting, property, catering) that are currently outsourced could be brought within ‘manufacturing’ companies. The sector would be resurgent, and no one would have to change what they actually do every day.

  5. Round numbers – assume US GDP per head from manufacturing is around 50% higher than the OECD average. So that 12.5% of GDP represents about 18.75 units of output, compared to the OECD average of 18 units of output.
    So to get to the OECD average, which is the writer’s target, fuck knows why, you have to reduce US manufacturing.

  6. ‘Many of the jobs lost were unionized’

    Correlation is not cause! Okay, this time it is.

    One of them. Government kills manufacturing. Businesses react to government fascist regulation by moving elsewhere. The key to restoring manufacturing is to chop government interference.

  7. ‘Require manufacturing’s share of the GDP to rise from its current 12.5 percent to something closer to the norm for OECD nations—somewhere between 17 percent and 19 percent.

    How in buggery do you do that?’

    Easy peasy. Kill off 8% of other businesses.

  8. One way is to create regulations for equipment that are just so odd that only a domestic firm could or would create a product complying with them.

  9. i’m wondering why the articles photo shows a Messerschmidt me110 – i can’t imgine vultee was building them.

  10. How to kill the service economy:
    Ban new takeaway food shops
    Ban prostitution
    Ban the sale and purchase of recreational drugs
    Ban smoking in non-food areas
    Make it illegal to voluntarily exchange your labour at a price between 0.10 and 7.70 an hour
    Ban the training of doctors above some prescribed number
    Make it hard for colleges to earn money from teaching foreign students
    Ban newcomers to the ride-sharing business
    Tax private provision of health, and leave govt provision untaxed at point of consumption.

    It’s a wonder that the services sector seems to be doing ok.

  11. And at the same time, the government must enact laws that require sunny days share of the weather also rises.

  12. And when everything is subsidised, what then? Who pays the subsidies?

    Does this question never occur to these people?

  13. It does raise rather an interesting question about agriculture though . I know quite a few farmers, I meet them through rugby usually , and they usually voted Brexit.
    I have said to them ” Are you quite insane, have you any idea what opening the UK up to world agri markets would to you, your son`s prep school, and the ridiculous Landrover your wife shops in …?!!!!”
    They blandly reply ” Oh the government will have to look after farmers …. otherwise the countryside would go wild ….”
    Now I am prepared to pay that price if I get the cheap food I am going to need, and in the dismal blighted world of Brexit-land the only laugh out there would be watching UK farmers starve to death .

    Why not , no-one gives a shit about the rest of us , fuck them .

  14. @Gamecock,

    Correlation is not causation – agreed – but without correlation you don’t have causation. Hence, the rule should be ‘correlation alone is not causation’.

  15. The USA is one of the world’s largest food exporters. So reduce the agriculture share of the USA’s economy so that the manufacturing share increases to the world average and how many tens of millions of people starve?

  16. Excavator Man

    Nope. Correlation isn’t causation, tout court.

    Perhaps you meant “evidence of correlation is not evidence of causation”

  17. Idiot Remoania is unable to distinguish between an owner of qualifying farm land, and a worker on that land ( who should have more opportunities if land is moved to higher value uses ). So he uses the term ‘farmer’ which is meaningless in terms of whether voting Leave was the right call.

  18. I see Bongo , the land is moved on to higher value uses like running away from wolves and colonies of bestial inbreds whilst the workers have “More opportunies” as we are now calling “unemployment” .
    God how I would laugh almost as much as I am going to laugh when the post industrial regions to whom a shiny new( all white) dawn has been promised find out their benefits are cut as we have exceeded our borrowing limit ( approaching fast btw)

    Bring it on!
    Its all shit, lets at least have a bitter laugh at the wankers who did it .

  19. What percentage of the service sector is servicing manufacturing and should probably be counted as manufacturing?

    The finance industry certainly provides some key services and most manufacturing couldn’t exist with IT – from controlling robots to managing logistics to managing HR/payroll.

    Also, if a manufacturing company develops its own IT platform for whatever it does then its an expense. If it buys it in its classed as capital and increases the company’s value.

    The distinction between services and manufacturing should be thrown in the bin. Better still, lets follow Cowperthwaite’s example and stop all measurement then damned fool politicians and assorted hangers on can’t interfere.

  20. Even I could write laws to effectively suppress non-manufacturing parts of the economy (or whatever other parts I was paid to suppress)
    By this means I could increase the proportion of the economy dedicated to manufacturing pretty well to whatever percentage desired.
    As a minor downside the side effect would be impoverishment of the whole people

  21. @BlokeinTejas,
    Nope. Total correlation isn’t causation, also post hoc ergo propter hoc is also wrong, but if there is a causal relationship, there must also be a correlation between cause and effect.
    Correlation is necessary, but not sufficient.

  22. “The political maneuvering involved in authorizing the annual farm subsidy once drew headlines and controversy, but now rarely does.” (Of course, that’s partly because the handful of agribusiness giants can lobby behind closed doors.) “We accept that farming is a federally subsidized market activity,” he continues.

    However, CAP does draw headlines and controversy.

    farming is federally subsidized” true, one reason we voted leave was so we could decide.

  23. @Gamecock
    December 29, 2017 at 4:40 pm

    Government kills manufacturing. Businesses react to government fascist regulation by moving elsewhere. The key to restoring manufacturing is to chop government interference.

    +1 Green blob laws forcing manufacturing out of UK.

  24. @Tim Newman, December 29, 2017 at 8:19 pm

    Aggressively sell weaponry to third world shitholes, paying them bribes if necessary.

    +1 We’re No 2 in world, we should be proud of that and grow what we excel at.

    Rescinding Blair’s bribery laws would be a good start.

  25. Cadet @ 4:00 pm
    “But suppose we abolished (say) payroll taxes on all workers employed by companies that either have ‘Manufacturing’ in their name, or – more stringently – do at least something that counts as actual manufacturing?”

    You are probably too young to remember the Selective Employment Tax of Harold Wilson back in the 60s. That plus the “white heat of technology” was a great success. Or something ….

  26. “I’m wondering why the articles photo shows a Messerschmidt me110 – i can’t imgine vultee was building them.”

    21st century journalism*.

    *Which is just like 20th century journalism.

  27. @ Vfts
    Well said – one tends to forget that after the devastation to manufacturing caused by Blair’s NMW

  28. Even if mandating the level of manufacturing were within a) the remit and b) the power of government it would still be a fucking stupid thing to do. It’s typical of a fascist to think otherwise. Are Uchitelle and The American Prospect fascists? By their fruits ye shall know them. If you take out the genocide and the Lebensraum stuff you can’t put a cigarette paper in between the policies of the modern American Left and the 1930’s Nazi party.

  29. What would you expect from a “journalist” with no meaningful experience in business or manufacturing? And excuse me, some middle-aged jaw flapper looking through rose-colored glasses at an era he experienced as a child (and did not understand) is not a basis for industrial policy.

    The whole thing is dumb enough to have come from Dean Baker.

  30. Strange really.

    I always thought that if you were that far up your arse all you could see was a back view of your tonsils

  31. “If you take out the genocide and the Lebensraum stuff you can’t put a cigarette paper in between the policies of the modern American Left and the 1930’s Nazi party.”

    Fascist control of America is vastly more pervasive than in 30s Germany. And we have Democrats rejecting democracy and demonizing their opposition.

    And people wonder how an intelligent country like Germany could submit to Hitler et al. As I’ve said before, it the Democrats a just a little more power, they’d kill us all.

  32. “It does raise rather an interesting question about agriculture though . I know quite a few farmers, I meet them through rugby usually , and they usually voted Brexit.
    I have said to them ” Are you quite insane, have you any idea what opening the UK up to world agri markets would to you, your son`s prep school, and the ridiculous Landrover your wife shops in …?!!!!””

    Farmers did indeed vote for Brexit in large numbers (I was one of them) despite knowing that losing the ‘farmers dole’ of the CAP would be virtually guaranteed, as there is zero interest on either side of the political divide in continuing to give wealthy landowners large dollops of cash every year, once control returns to Westminster.

    The reason for the turkeys voting for Christmas if you like is that farmers are fed up with the status quo. They are fed up with being fed a thin diet of subsidy that is just enough to keep them alive in business terms, but not enough to produce profits commensurate with their capital investment, or indeed large enough to really invest in their businesses for the future either. Farmers live hand to mouth, waiting like drug addicts for their next benefit payment to hit the bank account. If the country is fed up with ‘austerity’ after 10 years, try 30 years, farming gets the same for its output in cash terms today that it did 30 years ago. Farming in the UK is basically a corpse kept alive by annual infusions of blood, but unable to sustain itself in any meaningful way. Farming in the UK is owned by old men who know only the way of subsidy, so change cannot come from within, it has to be imposed by forces from without.

    People have decided that change needs to come, for good or bad, and out of the change something new can emerge. But it won’t while the drip drip of subsidy continues. So farmers voted for Brexit as way of throwing all the cards in the air, and seeing how they land.

  33. “Bloke in Costa Rica
    December 29, 2017 at 10:30 pm
    If you take out the genocide and the Lebensraum stuff you can’t put a cigarette paper in between the policies of the modern American Left and the 1930’s Nazi party.”

    Actually, nowadays you can leave those in – they have become part and parcel of 3rd-wave feminism and ‘social justice’

  34. The loss of subsidies invigorated NZ farming. It’s not at all clear that losing the CAP will be a disaster if it comes with real liberalisation.

  35. “he loss of subsidies invigorated NZ farming.”

    Yes, indeed. NZ also used to have a TV manufacturing industry that took completed Japanese TV’s, stripped them down to a kitset and then re-assembled them in NZ to ‘protect jobs’. The net result being a TV in NZ more than twice as much as elsewhere. Same thing with cars.

  36. Gamecock – ROTFLOL!!!!
    Farmers deal with farming, forcing a reality from a field or a group of animals to suit what they require. The end result is affected by multiple factors most of which are beyond capacity to risk manage.
    No different to many other jobs.

  37. “No different to many other jobs.”

    So having a job might be the indicator of being somewhat rational.

  38. Gamecock,

    “Easy peasy. Kill off 8% of other businesses.”

    It’s not quite that simple, enforcement of the ban requires police, lawyers, and judges, who’s salaries all show up in the GDP. The reality is we’d need to kill off at least 12% of other businesses to hit the target. The government simply isn’t going to ban without attempting to enforce the ban. We can’t have people earning un-taxed income for black market transactions, now can we.

  39. We just increase the tractor production quota. That will increase both manufacturing, by making tractors more expensive, the percentage of GDP required by agriculture.

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