Brexit would leave the UK worse off under three possible scenarios: a comprehensive free trade deal, single market access and no deal at all, according to a leaked government analysis of the economic impact of leaving the EU.
The document was meant to be shown confidentially to cabinet ministers this week but was leaked in an embarrassing development for Theresa May and David Davis, the Brexit secretary.
It said national income would be 8% lower under a no deal scenario, around 5% lower with a free trade agreement with the EU and about 2% lower with a soft Brexit option of single market membership over a 15-year period.
Because the outcome of such studies always, but always, depends upon the assumptions made.
My prediction – based upon no evidence at all of course – is that the WTO option will assume that we charge the maximum WTO tariffs allowed upon imports. Something we don’t have to do and something which would be stupid to do. But they’ll assume that we will…..