OK, so the Brexit Report is bollocks then

It predicts that if the UK were to trade under WTO terms, tariffs could mean food and drink prices increase by an additional 12.7%, sources said.

They’re assuming that we’d impose maximum WTO tariffs upon imports instead of the none which would be sensible.

Ho hum, it’s bollocks then, innit?

72 comments on “OK, so the Brexit Report is bollocks then

  1. I am assume countries are not obliged by default to impose these maximum tariffs (which would be crazy).

    If so, then this is fake news from the Guardian and whoever wrote the report is lying.

  2. The europhiliacs have been lying about what is now the EU since its inception. I don’t expect them to stop now.

  3. I for one cannot wait for the reaction of the Remainiacs when the coming crisis in Algeria leads the EU to fracture apart (Or it may be another crisis) I am Keeping a note of key quotes to fire back at the Remainiacs for that great day when not just the UK, but all of Europe is free from the EU’s dead hand….

  4. Plus the whole report is predicated upon the “gravity” model, that trade reduces with distance.

    If that’s your starting assumption, it doesn’t matter what numbers you run through it, it’s going to produce the same result – EU better because closer innit ?

    See also Mann’s climate hockey stick.

  5. “I am assume countries are not obliged by default to impose these maximum tariffs”

    I believe (from what has been stated on here) that we are indeed not obliged to put in place any tariffs under WTO rules, merely to not exceed their maximum rates. However I also understand one cannot discriminate – if one allows Brazilian beef in tariff free, all other countries beef must be treated the same.

  6. isp
    The British government long ago established a sensible division of labour: politicians politic and the civil service runs the country.

    Steve Baker recently criticized the civil sevice and was forced to apologise. “To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize.”

  7. They do mention the no tariff option just under the bit you quoted. So threy have thought of it and would likely do it if push came to shove, but are more interested in producing propaganda with this convenient leak.

    Ecks, you cannot sack the entire civil service because government would cease to function. It isn’t 1850.

  8. tomsmith – the SCS is the Senior Civil Service, just the top management grades who set the policy in place.
    The rest just does the job.
    The SCS could be sacked and the rest would still run the place while looking for promotion to the new SCS.

  9. Rhetoric aside, I doubt you could sack the entire management of the government without the it resulting in serious chaos. If by some miracle you did retain enough bright and ambitious young things to run the show, they would be exactly the same kind of people because culture percolates from the top down, so you would need to sack more, and more, and more. And by this point the state would be acting to protect itself from the right-minded politicians (who coincidentally don’t exist). It is fantasy.

  10. Presumably the WTO tariff they are assuming would be to some extent counterbalanced by not paying the food prices within the wonderful EU?

    Or are they suggesting prices post Brexit will be EU+WTO?

    No wonder they get such stupendous numbers

  11. tomsmith: Ecks, you cannot sack the entire civil service because government would cease to function.

    Would we notice?

  12. Is it unrealistic though? Producers like tariffs. Consumers don’t like high prices but can be told it’s ‘patriotic’ or ‘solidarity’ to protect their fellow workers’ jobs (even their own jobs). Who wants to let evil foreigners flood our markets when they won’t let our goods in? Politicians may prefer tariffs because it gives them a bargaining chip to persuade other countries to reduce their barriers too. And to be fair, very few countries seem to have gone for unilateral free trade as far as I’m aware – assuming British politicians could be persuaded seems a leap to me.

  13. Well yes, you would.

    It would be great if the government was smaller and wasn’t filled with total cunts, but changing that is a very long term project and “let’s go back to the way it was before” will never have the force over time of the progressive project.

    The best hopes we have are (i) that increasing technology and wealth makes government increasingly less important and more ridiculous looking, or (ii) total systemic collapse.

    I know which option I prefer. There is no political solution because surprise surprise politicians like politics and bureaucrats like bureaucracy.

  14. “Would we notice?”

    The productive would not notice, or rather would notice in a positive manner, the parasites leaching off the productive via the State’s guns would indeed notice to their detriment rather quickly.

  15. “The parasites leaching off the productive via the State’s guns would indeed notice to their detriment rather quickly.”

    Again fantasy. We would all notice if the functions of government actually ground to a halt. People surviving on benefits would be hit first and hardest it is true, but then they would want your stuff, which would be a problem.

  16. If we went zero tariff the according to WTO rules we’d have to apply them to everyone, right? However, what about anti-dumping tariffs on all EU agricultural products (for shits and giggles) given the way they subsidise the shit out of them?

  17. MBE
    All good points, to which the answer may be phasing in unilateral free trade sector by sector, starting with food and drink.

  18. Thanks, I do find this libertarian alliance/Ecks style bluster in answer to every problem to be trite and counter productive.

    I get that people are angry and worried, but saying this kind of thing makes them sound like Alf Garnet and achieves nothing at all since it is functionally impossible. It only helps opponents by allowing them to write you off as a loon.

  19. Brexit is dead. The smug smiles on the faces of civil service mandarins tells you all you need to know.

    “Yes, Minister” was right. Ministers know fuck all and the boys and girls running the country know what’s what.

    Our smug little bureaucrats have always venerated their more fascist cousins, but now they are content.

    A bit worrying really.

  20. Reality is not the expression you are looking for Theo. Profound impotence combined with a bovine acceptance of your own fate is a much better description for the rump of the Tory Party.

    Tomsmith– The SCS is the Senior Civil Service.ie the well-off, middle/upper class CM London Bubble cunts at the top doing their best to wreck Brexit. Nobody will miss that shower of shite. Any fantasy here is found in your own statism. Certainly these scum have stuck their nose into lots of areas of life. But their snouts can be removed. The world will not end. You are absolutely incorrect in your beliefs. If “there is no political solution” why are you wasting your time on here? Go enjoy life while you can. That a political solution is difficult in large part depends on the “nothing to be done” crowd like you and Theo.

    The rest of the Civil Service can go over 2 to 3 decades by natural wastage as the bullshit laws they “administer” are repealed gradually. That way there is no half mil of folk thrown on the dole all at once, the scum of the left have no “narrative” and we get steadily freer.

    In the meantime a large number of ordinary Civil Servants need to have their depts. merged under border control and a 100 thou or so of them could switch to border control and hunting down and expelling illegals. They can stay in place and on wages and illegals would start having lots of extra problems.

  21. So how much tariff money would the treasury take under WTO-max? Enough to reduce other taxes, or does that money disappear in the treasury forecasts of brexit?

  22. “so you would need to sack more, and more, and more.”

    Smile widens.

    “The productive would not notice, or rather would notice in a positive manner, the parasites leaching off the productive via the State’s guns would indeed notice to their detriment rather quickly.”

    Exactly.

    Tom / Theo

    It’s nothing more than push back against the continued orthodoxy that continues to expand the ever controlling state. Of course, it’s not going to happen in the way Ecks proposes, but the current “Conservative” way is no different to any socialist / CM / Labour version – more state / more authoritarianism.

    “It only helps opponents by allowing them to write you off as a loon.”

    I’m not convinced about that. 3 or 4 years ago, the same argument could have been used for envisaging notions such as Brexit / Trump, but instead – mad ideas, a bit of populism / inspiration / push back etc?

  23. Ecks:

    “The SCS is the Senior Civil Service.ie the well-off, middle/upper class CM London Bubble cunts at the top doing their best to wreck Brexit. Nobody will miss that shower of shite.”

    If you sack the senior management of any organisation it doesn’t tend to function very well. Contrary to popular belief the government actually does some useful things.

    And why do you assume that the next layer of the same bureaucracy do not share exactly the same beliefs as their superiors? Of course they do. You would need to sack down to the level of complete incompetence in order to purge the prevailing belief system of the civil service. This is fantasy.

    ” If “there is no political solution” why are you wasting your time on here? Go enjoy life while you can”

    Part of my enjoyment of life is expressing my opinion on blogs like this one. If there is a political solution why are you wasting your time on here? Go and organise for the glorious party of the revolution. You have a bit of work to do since it doesn’t currently exist. All I need to do is wait for one of my two solutions to happen.

    “The rest of the Civil Service can go over 2 to 3 decades by natural wastage as the bullshit laws they “administer” are repealed gradually.”

    The party of the revolution will hold power for 3 decades? Sounds a bit Mugabe-esque. Doesn’t sound particularly like a road to freedom.

  24. As you know, the top civil servants are represented by the “First Division Association” . I had thought that was a rather modern (and slightly naff, as if referring to soccer) title, but I recently came across an entry on the 1911 Census which referred to a First Division civil servant. How about that?

    Well, I think that’s interesting!

  25. “I am assume countries are not obliged by default to impose these maximum tariffs”

    The only obligation WTO rules impose is the obligation to ****REDUCE**** tarrifs to anything below 5%. Zero is below five. Zero is a fully feasable and allowable option.

  26. I have remarked here on this before. I had asked explicitly about this assumption in a seminar and was told it was made because “we thought it was a likely outcome”. Given they don’t vary that particular crucial assumption to come up with sensitivities it strikes me that this is a political decision rather than highlighting policy options. In other words they are relying on not getting caught.

    Given the lack of forensic questioning skills at senior levels in politics it’s not surprising shit like this gets passed and bad decisions get made. Its exhausting to challenge everything so the system wears down those challenging orthodoxy.

  27. “100 thou or so of them could switch to border control and hunting down and expelling illegals.”

    No!

    Not to your objective, but to your method. Better approach is to make illegals . . . uhh . . . illegal. Don’t expel them; lock ’em up*. Simply expelling them is not an adequate consequence. Within two weeks, all still free will be working on expelling themselves. Not enough jail space? Not a problem. Have your fine civil servants fence Rùm and erect tents. That should work fabulously for holding illegals.

    If the government would stop tolerating illegals, you wouldn’t have illegals. Government is failing it’s prime directive. That is how egregious it is: government is failing it’s reason for existence. Any excuse they give ignores their abject failure.

    What could government do? How ’bout “100 thou or so of them could switch to border control and hunting down illegals and locking them up? This would be an actual, real function of government. Worrying about how much sugar is in your snacks is not.

    * say 6 months for first offense; 2 years and felony status for second offense; 5 years for third offense. Allow parole for cash. Make it real money, as if you don’t mind keeping them for years.

  28. PF

    It’s nothing more than push back against the continued orthodoxy…

    Rage and rhetoric are not push back: they are just self-indulgent therapy for the chronically angry. Anyone ranting in my local pub about mass sackings of the “well-off, middle/upper class CM London Bubble cunts” frustrating brexit would be regarded as unhinged, the few remoaners would be delighted, nobody would be convinced, and somebody would raise Tomsmith’s very points. And this is a brexit-voting area.

    Moreover, as AA below indicates, the civil service is getting away with this because there’s no-one in the Cabinet (apart from Gove) who is intellectually capable of challenging it. This is why the knives are out for JRM – he’s calm, polite, rational and under-stated and hence very effective.

  29. Tomsmith:

    “If you sack the senior management of any organisation it doesn’t tend to function very well. Contrary to popular belief the government actually does some useful things. ”

    You are mistaking the SCS for a real organisation that has –to some extent at least-respond to real circumstances–like a business. The SCS are a collection of floating coprolites who think they are Gods instead what they actually are which is clods. As I said they have stuck their noses in everywhere–but that does not mean they are “vital” to anything. They dream up bullshit and unneeded plans and endless expense, they meddle so as to empire-build for themselves but they are not essential to anything or any one. Unless to some bunch of nancies who dare not take a piss without permission.

    “And why do you assume that the next layer of the same bureaucracy do not share exactly the same beliefs as their superiors? Of course they do. You would need to sack down to the level of complete incompetence in order to purge the prevailing belief system of the civil service. This is fantasy. ”

    No it isn’t. I know some actual and former CS folk. They were mostly doing a job. There were both Labour and Tories–old style rather than Blue Jelly Bubblers. Their contempt for the SCS puts mine far in the shade. Most of them were genuine patriots –if not well-informed in say Austrian Economics or such.

    Also common sense. Do the people filling Tesco shelves share or even care about the goals of national Tesco management? Nonsense. A few businesses perhaps but not many. Christ even if the boss class of the CoE actually were Christians they would struggle to find Vicars who shared their values. And that is supposed to be a calling not just a job.

    “All I need to do is wait for one of my two solutions to happen. ”

    So one of your solutions is Mad Max world–in which you would be “lucky” to last a week or some SF Paradise appears out of nowhere–aliens perhaps? . Er….riiight. “We don’t need to do anything about that there Hitler–he gorn die o’ old age soon enough”. Unfortunately not in your lifetime chum.

    Gamecock–Yes, you are right. But locking them up costs us a fucking fortune. Deport is cheaper. If they are caught back here we should apply their own book-supplied standards for theft –of some one else’s country.

  30. Let’s see how this played out:

    We impose tariffs.

    Winners are concentrated, and a small number, with lots of opportunities for politicians to have their photograph with workers who’ve had their jobs saved in the local and national press. Losers are dispersed and not organised therefore no bad PR because a few single mums have had a to take an extra trip to the food bank.

    Stories of the cost of those jobs being saved costing £500k per annum running in the right wing press completely ignored by the MSM.

    We don’t impose tariffs.

    Costs are concentrated and benefits dispersed. Lots of bad PR in local and national press by organised workforce who are going to lose their jobs. Perhaps even we’ll televised marches down Whitehall.

    No opportunity for photo ops with the odd single mum who can now afford to feed her kids without missing the odd meal herself, because nobody will think to look for those and even if they do, it will just be a right wing conspiracy.

    Perhaps the authors have a point when they tariffs will be imposed

  31. Mr Ecks: a bovine acceptance of your own fate

    If you’re pointing at me, well, steady on old chap!

  32. TMB–Bison are wild cattle.

    And if they were living in this country they would have a lot to be wild about.

  33. We could leave WTO as well.

    I’ll assume these latest models make the same kinds of weird assumptions the pre-Referendum Treasury ones did, including things like that reduced trade between UK and the remaining EU could only have a negative effect on the UK’s economy and not the EU’s as well. As if by magic I guess.

    IIRC when the people behind the economic model the Treasury used (NIGEM) ran it for themselves their results were only half as bad as the Treasury’s. The initial assumptions and weight you give certain feedbacks matter.

  34. Y’know, I’d expect a report of this nature to do sensitivity analysis, and show, y’know, actual graphs and then if a catchy headline is needed to use the most likely outcome, not one extreme or another.

    Unless it’s all political.

    Oh, silly moi.

  35. Over at Guido, that True Blue Tory, Comrade May, appears to be about to tell the Conservative Associations to fuck off and die.

    That firm believer in democracy appears to not want the common rabble to choose an MP for their local area.

    Instead, the Committee of Candidates, chosen by Gauleiter May can earn themselves a few hundred thousand a year by sitting on their arses and doing what “Adolfa” tells them to do.

    That will stop any future Tory Government being caught out like this again.

  36. That is it Testicle.

    Theo and Tomsmith and all the other oh-so-calm-and-rational chumps aren’t going to do shit until the FFC hands Corbog the keys of No 10.

    We need nutters now . Better nutter than nitwit.

  37. Gove is not photogenic enough to be Tory leader IMO.

    These things matter, but for the left Worzel Gummidge is fine.

  38. It might help to point out that should Britain remain in the EU:
    The EU has embassies round the world and a common foreign policy. Hence the FCO becomes functionally redundant.
    The EU has its own central bank and is moving towards a common financial policy. Hence both the BOE and the treasury will become functionally redundant.
    The EU is moving to a common defence policy, hence the MOD becomes functionally redundant.
    I have little doubt that for a time these Civil Servants will be employed shuffling paper, but their influence will be gone and after a time they will actually be declared redundant.

  39. In the hopeful clip below we see Theo renewing his membership of the Tory Party but then–at the last possible moment–seeing the light and taking action to save the future.

    Very droll, Ecksy. Well done! So much more interesting than your repetitive, cut-n-paste rants – which are now mega-boring (cf. David Thompson! – pbuh). Btw, I must applaud your recent evisceration of NiV on here — you are better at rational argument than ranting…

    As for my Conservative Party membership…As I have indicated repeatedly, my allegiance to the Tories is provisional and instrumental….But no-one — other than an idiot, or a socialist – would try to destroy the only coherent opposition to Corbyn until a viable alternative is available.

    When the ghastly May falls, I will have a say in who is to be her successor – either by vote or by my constituency chairman. Meanwhile, you will be screaming on the sidelines, feeling virtuous, and backing no-hopers/ idiots — like evangelical nut-job, Andrea Leadsom ( who, apparently, believes Christ has called her to be PM) that you backed last time…

    Meanwhile, please use your undoubted rhetorical (and analytical) skills demolishing your opponents – like NiV and DBCR.

  40. An opposition that fails against Corbo loses it all Theo.

    Even the scum of New Labour went when they were told. Jezza–and far worse McNasty–WON’T. Votes for 16 y.o, 5 million Dindus imported to vote (x2 since they already got away with it once)–even those are window-dressing. They will–as their kind always have– seek or build levers of violence such that only armed violence itself will shift them.

    Pardon me if I fail to see much merit in waiting around hoping the FFC will somehow fall without bringing the govt down with her. I see no evidence that May is in much danger of being toppled. If 8/6/17 didn’t do the job–what will?

    Your only plan then amounts–as I suggested– to sitting and hoping? I –in between ranting and slavering–am e-mailing and writing to every bloody Tory Grandee I have ever heard of–to tell them what should already be obvious to them. Never trust a Tory is the saying. But surely to Christ even the dimmest should be able top see what danger they–and all the rest of us– stand in the shadow of.

    I supported Leadsom–who I frankly had never heard of–on the grounds that I had heard of May and knew her quality from the Home Office years. I would have supported a parakeet over the FFC and I hoped that Leadsom would be unlikely to be as useless a mare as May. My mistake.

  41. “An opposition that fails against Corbo loses it all Theo.”

    Not yet. And the Tories are now 4 points ahead in the polls (which, bizarrely, you imagine are all rigged by the left! – Presumably, because the cognitive dissonance would be too much for you. )

    “Pardon me if I fail to see much merit in waiting around hoping the FFC will somehow fall without bringing the govt down with her. I see no evidence that May is in much danger of being toppled.”

    Er…you have called for her downfall, repeatedly….So your position is incoherent. Quelle surprise.

    “Your only plan then amounts–as I suggested– to sitting and hoping? I –in between ranting and slavering–am e-mailing and writing to every bloody Tory Grandee I have ever heard of–to tell them what should already be obvious to them. Never trust a Tory is the saying. But surely to Christ even the dimmest should be able top see what danger they–and all the rest of us– stand in the shadow of.”

    I am relentlessly emailing likewise – and I have the ear of my local MP, which you don’t have. All any of us can do is lobby, and then sit and wait. Meanwhile, you indulge your fantasies about revenging yourself on the elite (for your divorce, failure to recognise your talents, or whatever, it is etc). You are a rather sad individual – a keyboard warrior who vents his spleen repetitively on the web.

    “I supported Leadsom–who I frankly had never heard of… My mistake”.

    That says a lot about your judgement. I suggest you reflect calmly on your error. May (whom I didn’t support then) was always marginally better than Leadsom.

  42. “They dream up bullshit and unneeded plans and endless expense, they meddle so as to empire-build for themselves but they are not essential to anything or any one.”

    Well, apart from running the government that is.

    “I know some actual and former CS folk. They were mostly doing a job. There were both Labour and Tories–old style rather than Blue Jelly Bubblers”

    Anecdote

    “Most of them were genuine patriots –if not well-informed in say Austrian Economics or such.”

    This provoked a genuine laugh.

    “Do the people filling Tesco shelves share or even care about the goals of national Tesco management? Nonsense”

    Yes and if you purged the management of Tesco and left the shelf stackers to run the show, Tesco would be out of business immediately. Honestly, if you think that the shelf stacker equivalent in the civil service can run the government then you are more of a fantasist than I thought.

    “So one of your solutions is Mad Max world–in which you would be “lucky” to last a week”

    Systemic collapse is not a preference of mine. Merely a likely way that the current status quo could change if things go badly. Compared to your political “solutions” it has the advantage of being possible.

    “Or some SF Paradise appears out of nowhere–aliens perhaps?”

    Things are getting better you dope. Reality can be ignored for a bit but technology and increasing wealth are indeed the greatest threats to the continuation of intrusive government. When it is no longer required, it will not remain for long.

    Your political fantasy of Ecksian Roundheads taking control, extracting vengeance on the decadent political class, and then running a benevolent dictatorship for 30 years as we all travel contentedly back to whatever demented vision constitutes your version of the good-old-days has the disadvantage of being both impossible and utterly repellent to most sane people.

  43. “Yes, you are right. But locking them up costs us a fucking fortune. Deport is cheaper. If they are caught back here we should apply their own book-supplied standards for theft –of some one else’s country.”

    Do you pay your taxes to hear about sugar or to lock up invaders?

    Deport ISN’T WORKING. If you want to apply THEIR book, do it up front, then you don’t have to deal with “if they come back.” It CAN be dealt with efficiently; government prefers not dealing with it at all.

  44. “Not yet. And the Tories are now 4 points ahead in the polls (which, bizarrely, you imagine are all rigged by the left! – Presumably, because the cognitive dissonance would be too much for you. )”

    The polls showed no chance for Brexit and Trump. They then showed the FFC 20 points up. All bullshit. Both look to me to be a tactical attempts to influence–“you’ve no chance so stay at home and don’t vote” in the first two cases, the encouragement of foolish overconfidence in the second. Jezza has been a party to so much evil shite lately that it is possible these polls are accurate. But that doesn’t mean they won’t be fiddled again if the left see a chance for advantage. Of course that can’t be true–no one could outwit Theo.

    Me –“I see no evidence that May is in much danger of being toppled.”

    Theo–“Er…you have called for her downfall, repeatedly….So your position is incoherent. Quelle surprise.”

    WTF are you talking about? Calling for her very much needed demise has nothing to with my assessment of what is actually being done by the moribund Tory party towards seeing the cow off. That is to say nothing of substance whatsoever. That she is here 8 months after her–and your– party’s national humiliation says that clearly.

    “I am relentlessly emailing likewise – and I have the ear of my local MP, which you don’t have. ”

    The only use I would have for my local MPs ear is to have the ZaNu pricks appendage on a string over my fireplace as a trophy. All credit to you tho’Theo for being the important fellow you are. If we only had another–say –500 million important fellows like you the Party might actually feel pressured to do something. Other than lose.

    “Meanwhile, you indulge your fantasies about revenging yourself on the elite (for your divorce, failure to recognise your talents, or whatever, it is etc). You are a rather sad individual – a keyboard warrior who vents his spleen repetitively on the web.”

    And you remain a supremely self-satisfied smugster. Who likely–since speculation about life circumstances is under weigh–has a shitload more to lose than I do should Corbog triumph because of the treason and sheer shite-awfulness of the party you send your pennies to pay for.

    “That says a lot about your judgement. I suggest you reflect calmly on your error. May (whom I didn’t support then) was always marginally better than Leadsom.”

    Indeed it does Theo. It says I don’t give a rat’s arse for spending my time doing detailed analysis of the assorted freaks and scumbags who make up the ranks of Tory Grandees. I can only hope old Mr Rees Mogg is the exception that proves the rule that most of them are the shite scum of the Earth. Better than ZaNu only in that their hands are only dipped in a puddle of blood rather than the ocean in which ZaNu sails.

  45. Gamecock–Leaving minus an appendage seems unlikely to fly for a first offence among the legions of bleeding hearts.

    However it would make an attempt at a return incursion very difficult.

    But so would an absolutely indelible dye to change skin colour. If you have been turned purple before being expelled it can’t be classed as inhumane but would make sneaking back in impossible.

  46. …if you purged the management of Tesco and left the shelf stackers to run the show, Tesco would be out of business immediately. Honestly, if you think that the shelf stacker equivalent in the civil service can run the government then you are more of a fantasist than I thought.

    Reality can be ignored for a bit but technology and increasing wealth are indeed the greatest threats to the continuation of intrusive government. When it is no longer required, it will not remain for long.

    Your political fantasy of Ecksian Roundheads taking control, extracting vengeance on the decadent political class, and then running a benevolent dictatorship for 30 years as we all travel contentedly back to whatever demented vision constitutes your version of the good-old-days has the disadvantage of being both impossible and utterly repellent to most sane people.

    Well said, Tomsmith! Ecksy’s spittle-flecked rants lead nowhere. Apart from lobbying, our main hope is slowly and steadily converting friends and neighbours by reasoned argument….

    For example…there’s a salt-of-the-earth bloke – a carpenter, I believe – in my local who sits quietly listening to the discussion before making a pithy comment. One guy was defending the police, saying they were “under-resourced” and so justified in ignoring small crimes. The carpenter swayed opinion with one simple and calm remark: “Unpunished crime threatens us all”.

  47. Tomsmith:

    “Well, apart from running the government that is. ”

    Massively overrated and no big deal. Are you some kind of manager perhaps?

    “Yes”

    No

    ” and if you purged the management of Tesco and left the shelf stackers to run the show, Tesco would be out of business immediately”

    That is because Tesco is a business and the state is largely a moribund process of self-serving benefit for a class of political/bureaucratic scum.

    “Honestly, if you think that the shelf stacker equivalent in the civil service can run the government then you are more of a fantasist than I thought.”

    And you are an even bigger fool than I thought. Most of what they do –from thieving to handouts is already an automated –in human and computer terms –process. The fuckwits in charge keep messing around with the processes because they don’t work right and never will. But if those processes were frozen by the elimination of the chaos producing boss class the majority of people would still be served –as far as they are served–by the processes. Poliscum and top wank bureaucrats don’t re-order supplies, change lightbulbs or do any useful work of any sort. Yes the circs of life change but the system would remain stable long enough for new processes to put in place to ensure the system could be unwound and dismantled over time.

    “Systemic collapse is not a preference of mine. Merely a likely way that the current status quo could change if things go badly. Compared to your political “solutions” it has the advantage of being possible.”

    The end of the world is both possible and desirable to a Purge ? Yeah –you are the rational one alright.

    “Things are getting better you dope. Reality can be ignored for a bit but technology and increasing wealth are indeed the greatest threats to the continuation of intrusive government. When it is no longer required, it will not remain for long. ”

    That be ultimately true but the future is a lot further off than you think. Esp if Jezza triumphs then “not in your lifetime” is all that need be said about that “plan”.

    “Your political fantasy of Ecksian Roundheads taking control, extracting vengeance on the decadent political class, and then running a benevolent dictatorship for 30 years as we all travel contentedly back to whatever demented vision constitutes your version of the good-old-days has the disadvantage of being both impossible and utterly repellent to most sane people.”

    You have summed up Jezza’s plan very nicely. And if because of the FFC and stupidity of the Tory party he actually gets his way you will have a long time to wish I had been in charge instead.

  48. The Wisdom of Rustics Theo–that’s the solution.

    “our main hope is slowly and steadily converting friends and neighbours by reasoned argument….”

    Lotsa luck.

  49. Pat,

    They won’t be made redundant, they’ll become a satellite or even vassal, of the main function in Brussels to give the illusion of subsidiarity.

    See Ofcom which, despite all its grandiosity, is reduced to putting together documents on which swear words or gestures are acceptable. The rest of the time it’s either getting permission from Brussels to have its own policy or implementing theirs.

  50. “The Wisdom of Rustics Theo–that’s the solution….Lotsa luck.”

    And your alternative is, Ecksy, exactly what?

    Those “rustics” you sneer at have a better grasp of reality than you do. Scraping an honest living by their crafts and skills – fencing, mole-catching, odd-jobbing — these decent folk fear Corbyn while almost despairing of May. I gently try to encourage them to articulate their views over a pint, and I’m often enlightened when they do.

  51. I’m not sneering at rustics Theo but laughing at such tripe. At least the old bloke didn’t take the piss. “I seen summat narsty in the woodshed” would have been my reply.

    My alternative is –like you–pestering where I can.

    And spreading my ideas about what should be. Which are a damn sight better than your “realm-of-the-possible” malarkey.

    When you get May out without bringing everything down you will be welcome to come back and crow.

  52. Gamecock,

    “Not to your objective, but to your method. Better approach is to make illegals . . . uhh . . . illegal. Don’t expel them; lock ’em up*.”

    $32k/yr average to house an inmate times 12.5 million illegals equals $400 billion per year. Divide by the roughly 320 million American citizens and we find that the average American has to pay $1250 per year in taxes to pay prisons for this plan. Unless you happen to be elderly, a child, or on welfare, you’ll pay far more though.

    “If the government would stop tolerating illegals, you wouldn’t have illegals.”

    Which is preferable, starving to death in Venezuela or being in an American jail?

    “say 6 months for first offense; 2 years and felony status for second offense; 5 years for third offense. Allow parole for cash. Make it real money, as if you don’t mind keeping them for years.”

    Since you aren’t expelling anyone the illegals are released into America and still breaking the law. To save the hassle of hunting them down, it makes more sense to arrest the illegals at the prison exit. Paying to get out doesn’t change immigration status so, by law, even someone who pays should be rearrested at the prison exit.

    The only way this works is if we provide a citizenship path to all illegals in prison. If we’re providing a citizenship path to ever illegal anyway, why not just provide the citizenship path without the jail time? We end up with the same result but save paying $400 billion in taxes per year.

  53. 60 comments and not one person estimated how much food and drink costs will decrease using WTO minimum tariffs.

  54. “$32k/yr average to house an inmate times 12.5 million illegals equals $400 billion per year.”

    Bullshit. That’s a choice. Fencing Rùm and erecting tents will bring the cost way down. And again, it’s money spent on what the government is SUPPOSED to spend money on.

    “Since you aren’t expelling anyone the illegals are released into America and still breaking the law.

    “The only way this works is if we provide a citizenship path to all illegals in prison.”

    Don’t be dense. Expel them on release from prison. It’s not complicated.

    “The only way this works is if we provide a citizenship path to all illegals in prison. If we’re providing a citizenship path to ever illegal anyway, why not just provide the citizenship path without the jail time?”

    You invented this. You figure it out. Hint: returning to the U.S. will get you in deep shit.
    CITIZENSHIP ??? Rilly?

  55. “Massively overrated and no big deal. Are you some kind of manager perhaps?”

    Holy crap, you have no experience running any operation anywhere. This explains a lot.

    “That is because Tesco is a business and the state is largely a moribund process of self-serving benefit for a class of political/bureaucratic scum.”

    You shouldn’t believe your own rhetoric Ecks, it just makes you look stupid. Running the government is complex and requires experienced Senior people. These people cannot be replaced with the equivalent of shelf stackers.

    “Most of what they do –from thieving to handouts is already an automated –in human and computer terms –process. The fuckwits in charge keep messing around with the processes because they don’t work right and never will. But if those processes were frozen by the elimination of the chaos producing boss class the majority of people would still be served –as far as they are served–by the processes. Poliscum and top wank bureaucrats don’t re-order supplies, change lightbulbs or do any useful work of any sort.”

    Again you are only revealing that you have no experience of running any kind of complex organisation. This makes what you say all the more terrifying and bonkers.

    “Yes the circs of life change but the system would remain stable long enough for new processes to put in place to ensure the system could be unwound and dismantled over time.”

    Again the benevolent Ecks dictatorship stretching on into the far future in order to get the job done. Not many people’s idea of a free society that.

    The end of the world is both possible and desirable to a Purge ? Yeah –you are the rational one alright.

    Please don’t lie. Systemic collapse does not equal the end of the world. There is no sense in conferring preference when comparing something possible and something impossible. Only real options can be preferred in reality. I have stated that collapse is not the option I prefer, it is merely an option. The Ecksian puritan revolution is merely a fantasy, so there is no sense in weighing it up as if it was a potential option in reality.

    “That be ultimately true but the future is a lot further off than you think. Esp if Jezza triumphs then “not in your lifetime” is all that need be said about that “plan”.”

    The civil service will prevent Corbyn doing anything they see as stupid just as they work to soften Brexit, and just as they would dissolve any attempt at a purge of their ranks. The harder Corbyn pushes, the less will be achieved. The fact that a Corbyn win is possible while an Ecks revolution is impossible will not have escaped your notice?

    “You have summed up Jezza’s plan very nicely. And if because of the FFC and stupidity of the Tory party he actually gets his way you will have a long time to wish I had been in charge instead..”

    Doesn’t it worry you that your plan and what you perceive to JC’s plan share so much in common?

  56. Gamecock,

    If we’re going to expel them anyway, why waste money on concentration camps? Better yet, why not just Godwin the conversation now and go right to the final solution?

    Deep shit is still better than starving to death.

    I would like to point out that I only touched on the costs of housing prisoners. LEO, judges and lawyers all have to be paid as well. Done properly, the costs of the legal system will also be in the hundreds of billions. This estimate is base on expanding the current $6 billion ICE budget that can deport roughly 80k illegals per year* to a budget large enough to deport 1 million illegals per year. Using a linear project total costs will be in the $75 billion range. Add in other federal, state, and local LEO, as well as the court system, and the costs quickly grow beyond $100 billion.

    In other words, fuck off slaver. I am not paying thousands in additional taxes for your stupid idea.

    * Based on fiscal year 2017 interior deportation figures which includes deportations under Obama. Total deportations have dropped under the current administration so a better estimate is most likely in the 50-70k range, although we have to wait for FY 2018 data to be available. At a deportation rate of one million per year, combined with the current negative illegal immigration rate, this style of program could conceivable remove 90% of our current illegal immigrants over the course of a decade.

  57. Tom / Theo

    I know this is yesterday’s thread, but, if not an Ecksian purge, what would be the appropriate way of dealing with these particular Nazis:

    https://health.spectator.co.uk/smaller-portions-higher-prices-fewer-choices-public-health-puritans-are-ruining-everything/

    I don’t know about you, but when it comes to this sort of nonsense, I’m not convinced Ecks is really giving these kcuffers his full attention…

    Rhetoric – yes sure, or course – but “what” (back with reality)? Too many Conservative MPs for example agree with this utter shite, no different to their socialist counter-parts?

  58. “The civil service will prevent Corbyn doing anything they see as stupid just as they work to soften Brexit, and just as they would dissolve any attempt at a purge of their ranks. The harder Corbyn pushes, the less will be achieved. The fact that a Corbyn win is possible while an Ecks revolution is impossible will not have escaped your notice? ”

    I’m not wasting time fisking the rest of your tripe–the above paragraph says it all Mr Master of Complex Organisations.

    If Jezza and McNasty win ( and McNasty is the real engine: Grandpa Death is just their attempt at a figurehead that isn’t too big a loose cannon) you will discover very quickly how the unthinkable can become all too real. So fast you won’t even have time to shit your pants.

    ZanU now has 500,000 nasty pieces of Marxist shite lined up* because they know this is their chance–maybe their last –to fuck this nation as they have wanted to do for 150 years. At this critical juncture all they need is the chance- a “legitimate” off so to speak. And to paraphrase Hans from “Die Hard”: “You ask for miracles Theo: I gif you der FFC”.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JI5gblI82rg

    * Less than 500,000 as some “members” will be Tories who paid the 3 to vote hoping that Jezza will destroy ZaNu. Ultimately he might. But if they get in they will destroy the rest of us first. Be clear . They are not just some even naffer and more useless version of NuLab. They are full on Marxist scum and this is their chance. If the forces of good fail at the next election these inhuman marxian offal WILL grab their chance to destroy with both hands. They are so useless as to be barely able to find their arse with those hands. So are ALL the socialist scum of the Earth. In all areas except deceit and destruction. Those they can do. Those they excel at. There is proof enough all around the world to show that to be the truth.

  59. PF
    Ecksian purges of PHE or even academia are just about within the bounds of the politically possible. Sacking the entire SCS or closing the entire BBC in 24 hours – both “sans compo” – are not. And sacking the entire SCS would lead to chaos. Ecksy’s a bit of fascist – what he wants is a revolution with a dictatorship of the libertariat (ie himself).

  60. ^ correct

    PF: What to do about the example you provide? Complain loudly and often to any available politician (not being a nutter dressed in camo known for shouting on street corners is helpful here). Regular successful people telling them over and over not to do something has an effect. Remember that politicians are frequently overwhelmed, often incompetent, and usually lazy. Make sure the message reaches the brain.

    Also, and more importantly, just be a bit French in your attitude to rules and regs, and encourage your friends and family to be the same. Celebrate every PHE announcement by making a large fat and sugar laden meal and finishing a home brew, then eat, drink and smoke to excess with friends and family while laughing about PHE.

    Every time they tell you to do something, just laugh and do the opposite. Stop caring so much. Price increases on sugary drinks? Buy imported from the eastern Euro shop or make your own extra sugary lemonade. Min pricing on alcohol? Ramp up and semi industrialise home brew production. Make a still and start churning out moonshine. Give free to friends and family while laughing about PHE.

    Simply don’t give a fuck. Be like the French.

  61. Stuff like this only has power if people listen to the likes of PHE. In this way we get the rulers we deserve.

    Go to Spain or France and watch as they smoke openly n restaurants despite smoking “bans”, make and consume their own hard booze without a care, and drink drive habitually. This is the result when people treat the govt as a bit of a joke in terms of lifestyle regulation.

    Look at us in comparison and you realise it is our own fault. There is only one way to change it- brick by brick, be the change, and so on. If you don’t give a fuck then some of the people you come into contact with will also stop giving a fuck, and so it will grow!

  62. “If we’re going to expel them anyway, why waste money on concentration camps?”

    To create consequences for illegal behavior. See: prisons.

    “Deep shit is still better than starving to death.”

    Who is starving to death ?!?! That’s a cheap shit assertion.

    Besides, the U.S. is not responsible for the rest of the world. Shit happens around the globe; that doesn’t require us to take people in. And our government is chartered to NOT let them in, to STOP them from coming in.

    “In other words, fuck off slaver. I am not paying thousands in additional taxes for your stupid idea.”

    A Libtard suddenly worried about cost to government? No one believes you.

    And your deep analysis still doesn’t explain CITIZENSHIP. I know, you think they’ll vote for your causes. If the people won’t vote the way you want, you replace the people.

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