Silly Senior Lecturer

Many commentators now seem to agree stock markets are heavily over valued. If the correction is not now it is coming.

But still people buy. If ever proof of irrationality was required, or alternatively that there persists a belief amongst many that they can beat the market, this looks like it.

For every seller there is a buyer. Meaning that there are always (well, OK, St Petersburg exchange, 1917) people who still buy.

Sigh.

21 comments on “Silly Senior Lecturer

  1. Next he’ll play the trick of saying that the market is down so where has all the money gone? He knows less than I did when I was sixteen.

  2. There’s a typo

    Many commentators now seem to agree Socialism is heavily over valued. If the correction is not now it is coming.

    But still people believe. If ever proof of irrationality was required, or alternatively that there persists a belief amongst many that they can beat the market, this looks like it.

    Fixed

  3. “Many commentators now seem to agree stock markets are heavily over valued.”

    *Nick Knowles face* “Name them!”

  4. “Many commentators now seem to agree stock markets are heavily over valued.”

    So what?
    It’s not commentators that are important, it’s shareholders & traders. People with skin in the game. And markets tell us what they’re opinion is.

  5. I had to explain to sicko Fante that someone has to buy, even when price levels are falling…they refused to believe me

  6. ‘For every seller there is a buyer.’

    So one half of every free trade is irrational. Government must step in!

    ‘Many commentators’

    Love how he gives Star Power to the Pundit Class.

  7. @Diogenes
    “someone has to buy, even when price levels are falling…”

    No they don’t. By definition. A price falling is sellers reducing price to encourage buyers.
    There’s a difference between contract note price. Struck price. What one paid or received for/from a transaction. Which is historic. And market price. which is aspirational. Market price movements don’t say anything about actual dealings. Very often the greatest price movements are accompanied by very few actual transactions. Or looking from the other direction, few transactions result in exaggerated price movements.

  8. And something Murphy clearly doesn’t understand. Commentators opinions. Even his opinions. Are priced into markets. They’re part of the sum of information a market’s calculating with. That the market’s trend & the predictions of commentators vary indicate the value markets put on the predictions of commentators.

  9. Announce to your missus before breakfast every day “Markets are over valued!”.

    If she doesn’t die of boredom first, there will come a day when you can say “See, I’m a genius!”.

    Fortunately for her, Mrs Murphy didn’t turn up for breakfast after a while…

  10. With interest rates hovering so close to zero in some parts of the world, the concept of valuation starts to lose its meaning – in the Eurozone, for example. Even at say 2.8% you would expect P/E ratios to be much higher than they were in the days of 12% interest. A lot of commentators don’t seem to be factoring that into their analyses of historic PE ratios

  11. The markets are trampolining up and down. Even gold is losing value. Not the time to make big judgement calls, in my slightly worried view

  12. It’s tempting to post on Spud’s site that tobacco and oil are still the best holders of value, just to read the kicking you would get

  13. That, of course, is the revealing question. If commentators were so good at reading markets they’d be keeping schtum & trading on their own account. On the other hand, you can male a profitable investment policy out of doing the opposite of self-described investment experts.

  14. In 2016 Snippa wrote about why Corbyn would be gone by the next GE ( you could have got 5/2 that he survived to the next GE at the time ) and the public listed companies that have the FTM are on aggregate lower than when granted the Mark.
    And if you’d bought the FTSE every time he said sell, oh my g, you could be owning a racehorse by now, being ridden by a hooker on coke in the 2pm at Newmarket. Fancy that, a whole town named after an economic phenomenon, where information is definitely imperfect.

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