Sorry, don’t believe it

Researchers have called for an urgent investigation to find an explanation for more than 20,000 ‘additional deaths’ so far this year, amid severe pressure on the NHS.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that in the first sixteen weeks of the year, there were 20,215 more deaths in England and Wales compared to the previous five years.

Not that I particularly know anything about this subject but, don’t believe it.

The editorial was authored by Professor Danny Dorling of the University of Oxford

Whenever Dorling has pronounced upon something I do know about it’s been bullshit.

So, no, I don’t believe it.

A Department for Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “We keep all research in this area under review, but the ‘age standardised mortality rate’ – which had been broadly stable in recent years – is considered a much more reliable measure, as this type of research doesn’t take into account fluctuations in population numbers and the ageing population.”

My best guess is he’s looking at the wrong numbers so that he can shout “Austerity!”

21 comments on “Sorry, don’t believe it

  1. 20,000? That’s quite a few Shipmans.

    Mind you, there has been the odd comment in the papers over the past few years to the effect that the long trend in increasing life expectancy might be coming to a halt, and that there are appreciable numbers of missing ninety year olds.

    “this type of research doesn’t take into account fluctuations in population numbers and the ageing population”: ah, he’s been an idiot. Or a crook? Or both?

  2. He is lying CM scum –lying towards the end of propagating socialist evil. He could not be trusted to tell you the time of day.

    Nor is he unusual in that. An entire generation of womiccumalobus vipers has been created and is at work trying to bend truth to manufacture the conditions needed for their chosen brand of evil to thrive.

    In short , lying leftists cunts are everywhere in every media. From TV and cinema to your local newspaper to the multi-culti, EU-sucking shiteverts that try to sell you on the multi-culti self-destruction of your family, nation and the future more than they try to move product.

    Specimen quote from Starburst Magazine* ( SF and Fantasy media, films TV , comics etc) while reviewing new horror film “Ghost Stories” with Martin Freeman. *

    “The three stories are all brilliantly relayed in an almost effortless way and there’s an undercurrent of social commentary throughout ( surprise fucking surprise). People are casually racist, off-the-cuff-anti-Semitic ( the tit writing the review obviously hasn’t got the latest memo from ZaNu HQ), or mistrusting of mental health issues ( like not accepting your dick as evidence of what sex you are?). Which is all tackled in a Grand Finale that is the definition of pulling the rug.”

    The rug needs to be pulled from under these fuckers double quick.

    * Nothing to do with the Yank-switch re-naming of Opal Fruits–tho’ all-too-much-fruitiness has invaded what used to be a magazine for youthful film-fans. The youth has faded along with the innocence. The mag–and all the others–is now full of Marxian shite speak–“gender-fluid” and such like leftist cockrot.

    * Anything with Martin Freeman in it is likely to be womi shite–with the poss exception of the Hobbit etc. Or that other shortarsed womi Eddie Marsen who never misses a chance to be in some CM agitprop–the “Limehouse Golem” being a typical example of said tripe.

    Again I’m posting the link to read –and comment to the turds–about the latest tinpot BluLabour attack on free speech.. Please let the cunts have it good and proper.

    https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/6.4328_Public_Order_Offences_Guideleines_Consultation_web.pdf

  3. Dorling is not – and probably (I can’t be arsed to read his early stuff) never was – an academic researcher. He is a full-time ideologue who for many years has simply abused his academic position in order to propagate leftish nonsense and to self promote, viz, an arrogant cunt.

  4. ‘more than 20,000 ‘additional deaths’ so far this year’

    Unless he can give your their names, he’s full-o-shit.

    That’s probably it, dearieme. All those lives they saved before just made them older.

    Omnia moriatur.

  5. Life expectancy between 2010 to now has advanced at about half the rate that it did between 2000-2010. There was a short spell from 2014-2016 when it didn’t advance at all, and the headline writers and spendaholics zoomed in on that. Nobody made the connection between the situation now and the 2008 BMA rejection of more med schools and training places for doctors. No-one made the observation that in the recession govt spending advanced at about 2.5 times the rate of the reduction in tax receipts. No-one thought that spending a post war record of £1.31 for every £1 of income as we did in 09-10 was a problem and therefore some spending restraint was an ideological choice.
    And now I’m guessing we have smeg bottom Dorling working out what mortality rates should be in his opinion if the improvement in life expectancy up to 2010 had continued to now, subtracted what it actually is, and hey presto – we have 20000 excess deaths in 4 months.
    We shall await the Deaths stats from the ONS.

  6. Ecksy – I admit that I haven’t watched The Hobbit, but my impression from trailers, reviews and glancing at one or other of the interminable episodes on on other people’s screens during flights, is that it is utter utter arse of the worst sort.

    Eddie Marsan is good in Ray Donovan (which I like, despite it having less grounding in reality than The Hobbit).

    Anyway, I might have missed the memo but what is:

    womiccumalobus

    Have I missed the gag? Are you trying to get it to catch on? It’s a bit of a mouthful…

  7. Bongo
    No, the improvement in mortality is NOT KNOWN because all we do know is that the mortality rates for older ages reported from 2001-2010 are *wrong* – they were based on a calculated number of people alive at different ages and understated the mortality rates by the same %age as the numbers assumed to be alive were overstated. All the “missing people” in the 2011 census are the numbers overstated in the 2001 census plus net emigration of the elderly in the following decade.
    All the wonderful improvement in 2001-10 was a mirage due to errors in the 2001 census (you know: the one that said that Westminster had fewer inhabitants, men women and children, in total than it had heads of households paying Council Tax). As the numbers alive gradually shrank, the fixed error became gradually more important so there appeared to be a progresssive im[provement in mortality thanks to NewLabour’s wonderful policies.
    All Bulshit!
    Gordon Brown had the cheek to blame Actuaries for underestimating mortality improvements when they had been right and the government-produced figures were wrong.
    We also know that real GDP growth and productivity growth was overstated during the “New Labour” years because an eror was introduced into the formula for calculating RPI in Autumn 1997 and not corrected until autumn 2010. The exact amount of the overstatement is unknown but a report in the Royal statistical sociry’s magazins “Significance” estimated itas around 1% pa.

  8. “The exact amount of the overstatement is unknown but a report in the Royal statistical sociry’s magazins “Significance” estimated itas around 1% pa.”

    John, I’m confused. ~ 13% or more “cumulative” by 2010? And then “corrected” in 2010? I’m missing something?

  9. ‘We also know that real GDP growth and productivity growth was overstated during the “New Labour” years because an error was introduced into the formula for calculating RPI in Autumn 1997 and not corrected until autumn 2010.’

    Do government employees ever make statistical errors of that size that are favourable to Conservative or Coalition governments rather than Labour governments?

  10. @john 77, May 12, 2018 at 5:38 pm

    Thanks. Informative.

    Yet more poison-pills left by Blair/Brown: manipulated RPI, Life expectancy. On top of manipulated productivity increase, Windrush, GreenFail Tower, Breast screening…

    “Labour – the party of liars, spivis and thieves” Starring Blair, Hoon, Vaz, Brown, Straw, ….

  11. ‘Researchers have called for an urgent investigation to find an explanation for more than 20,000 ‘additional deaths’ so far this year’

    Urgent?

    And how do you know which were the additional?

  12. @ PF
    The error in the formula was corrected but the RPI figures were not as ONS decided it could not calculate the correct numbers – or chose not to do so.
    So New Labour’s performance is overstated by around 13% and those wholly dependent on state pensions are/were 13% worse off than they should be (so Cameron’s “triple lock” was just partially correcting Brown’s theft, not a hand-out to the already well-off).

  13. John,

    Fascinating.

    as ONS decided it could not calculate the correct numbers – or chose not to do so.

    Whatever happened to a straightforward “difference in prices” – ie “change in balances”?

    Politics? Or just ‘bloody amateurs’!

  14. dearieme, given the state of the civil service, the rule of thumb should be that government statistics are massaged favourably when Labour forms the government and massaged unfavourably when the Conservatives form the government.

  15. Why do people assume improvements in life expectancy will continue to rise in a linear fashion, or even rise at all? Does this mean by 2100 we should all be living until we are 140, and if we don’t then it’s ‘Austerity’? It’s absurd. Do these people understand what human aging actually is?

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