Interesting assertion

There is hardly any equivalence between the Italian situation as part of a currency union and the position of a sovereign currency in Scotland.

What happens when you leave a currency union looks like rather the same question to me.

40 comments on “Interesting assertion

  1. Establish a new currency while you are bankrupt and lacking in assets to cash in on?

    The Fish Faced Hag –Sturgeon–needs to get on the phone to Maduro. So long as he doesn’t charge for advice.

  2. I only visit TRUK when something here tempts me (accompanied in the past by the shades of the GDR politburo and others) over there. I didn’t spot TW’s extract so perhaps it wasnt Capt Pot pronouncing but one of his peelers,

    I did find this, though:

    Jennifer Allen says:
    May 31 2018 at 10:11 am

    Dear Richard,

    Please, as a psychologist, I implore you, please see a doctor.

    You clearly suffer from cognitive dissonance as both of these are quotes from you today.

    “Debate requires an open mind and a willingness to accept there are alternatives”

    and

    “I need to hit the delete button rather more often on this blog if this is the standard of comment being offered”

    Really worried about your mental well-being as we see these as indicators of a problem in all our checklists, especially in writing exercises.

    Jen

    Sound woman, Jen.

  3. Depends on the definition of “open mind” and ‘debate’. For the Left an “open mind” is someone who believes everything I do and a ‘debate’ is two such people having a conversation.

  4. “debate requires others to have an open mind and to accept my ill-considered alternatives. Reciprocity not guaranteed.”.

    There. Fixed it.

  5. Rob: a ‘debate’ is two such people having a conversation

    Yes but then ‘conversation’ also has its own special meaning as in “we need to have a conversation with the voters” which means we have made up our mind.

  6. Tim –sorry to ask again but could you have a look at these links and make it a full post.

    We have it seems about a month to stop the EU using their proposed “link tax” to finish the Internet off for Europeans. That is no blogs, no alt media–cos only the MSM scum could afford the link tax fees.

    It is very urgent –the deadline is 21st June.

    Everybody reading this –please read and spread as far as you can otherwise –kaput.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvXOfq3AB8s&feature=youtu.be

    https://saveyourinternet.eu/

  7. @TMB

    Just as funny is this, after Murphy laments that his efforts aren’t being listened to;

    “Gary says:

    Keep bashing your head agin’ the wall Richard, I can see some cracks forming”

  8. On topic:
    If a country wants to leave a currency union what are the options for how to do it? Any wise men with an ‘idiot’s guide’ to shre? Some factors / choices present themselves:
    1. Fast / Slow (overnight fait accomplis vs well flagged gradual)
    2. In a panic / well prepared
    3. Macroeconomics fine / macroeconomics dire
    4. etc
    Scotland and Italy both face the ugly truth that their standalone economies could not support the welfare state they have become accustomed to. Sure they could go their own ways – but would need deep reforms to be viable.
    Seems to me you can have your own currency or you can have socialist welfarism – choose one.

  9. Off topic – for Tim:
    It’s easy to post here. So we do – and that generates some great threads. Which is a part of why I come.
    CT is an effing nightmare to try to post on – so people don’t. There are therefore no threads worthy of the name. And so CT is a much lesser thing than it could be.

  10. We had to have registration over there. Too many took the piss with entirely open commenting. Sorry, there’s just no solution to it with the wider audience.

  11. So I registered and it worked for a dew days – then it rejected my ID/password (didn’t say which)

  12. @Patrick
    Italy has a current account surplus, so the budget deficits associated with the welfare state are being financed domestically, at least for now.
    I am sure that you are right that many Italians aspire to a welfare state/tax mix that would not be sustainable.

  13. After all these years of discussion about monetary union I’ve seen no description of what happened when the Mediterranean currency union broke up, nor on Norway leaving union with Sweden, nor on Belgium leaving the Kingdom of the Netherlands. Nothing, either, on the Confederacy leaving the Union, and only a tiny bit on the Irish Free State leaving the UK.

    Why?

  14. I’ve had no problems logging in and commenting at the other place. It might be a setup/cookies/filter/cache thing.

  15. “Italy has a current account surplus”

    I believe our host has argued in the distant past that those are the very circumstances under which Italy might choose to leave.

    “Mediterranean currency union broke up, nor on Norway leaving union with Sweden, nor on Belgium leaving the Kingdom of the Netherlands. Nothing, either, on the Confederacy leaving the Union, and only a tiny bit on the Irish Free State leaving the UK”

    The Latin union was silver/gold backed and broke down due to the divergence in value of those metals, rather than for national reasons. Switzerland’s coins are, to this day, the same size as they were back then. The rest of it is also bog-standard gold standard and related stuff (except Ireland, which remained in currency union with the UK until 1979).

    Aside from the previous non-existence of the internet, with which a sufficiently large investor could, theoretically, bankrupt Belgium (perhaps not Norway) at the touch of a button, the issue now is basically government debt. This is obviously more of a thing now than back in the good old days. Italy could “leave” the Euro and no one would give a shit.

    What they would give a shit about is Italy attempting to redenominate its debts into new Lire, and that would cause massive panic, and an immediate massive increase in Italy’s borrowing costs. Which is moot if they can remain in surplus and pay down rather than roll over. So the irony is, while Italy is actually in a position to leave, there’s no really good reason to bother with leaving, and a few trillion good reasons not to leave.

  16. BiG

    “there’s no really good reason to bother with leaving “

    Apart from having had zero growth for the last 19 years and negative growth per capita over the same period.

    I know you’re based there, but there’s really no need to indulge Germany’s preference for self-serving mercantilism with added sanctimony.

  17. @john77
    So I registered and it worked for a dew days – then it rejected my ID/password (didn’t say which)

    IIRC there was an early change to a new system which required a new registration to be created. But I’ve been using the same ID/password combination for many weeks/months since then, with no issues.

  18. MrVeryAngry said:
    “Why do you need a sovereign currancy at all?”

    It stands to raisin.

  19. Ascertaining the somewhat labile opinions of Humpty Spud is like measuring an observable of a quantum system. You get a definite answer each time you do it, but the next time the answer will be different. Still idiotic, but different.

  20. Interesting to see that Gweedo appears to be shadow banning people. I tried to put something up mocking the narrative on the Skripals and it went to moderation, never to be seen again. Fair enough, we know he had the D notice brigade on his case and I know Timmy once took down a similar ‘are we sure’ type comment I tried to leave here. But today under the piece where Chukka was advertising for unpaid interns I simple typed “how many people does he employ already” and that too went to moderation. Banned by name not content. Sinister.

  21. Did you not see the “comment moderation is enabled” message at the top then?

  22. And if the EU pull their link tax shit successfully he–and everybody else not deep-pockets MSM –will soon be out of business anyway. Including Tim.

    The insanity of the plan will likely stop it at some point–why buy an iPhone if BBC bullshit is all you can get on it? ( ie huge economic damage ahoy) but who knows what it will wreck before it runs out of steam.

    We should stop the bastards before they piss on us–not after.

  23. Ecks,

    I’m confused. If the EU do go ahead with this stupidity, how will it put Tim out of business?

    timworstall.com appears to be hosted out of California (last time I checked, and I’ve just just re-pinged it, the latency timings look right).

    Hence, I’m guessing not subjected to any such EU bollocks? And presumably is what would happen with any other similar blog – just shift the hosting server? Or is my understanding incorrect?

    Obviously, I agree with your sentiment on this, simply confused as to why it would shut them down?

  24. Tim W may publish in America but he has to come back to the UK every now and then I would guess. Even if he doesn’t, Portugal could easily extradite him.

    Remember the landmark legal case:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jones_%26_Co_Inc_v_Gutnick

    Barron’s published an article which said that an Australian Jewish business man was not entirely, umm, no, I won’t say it, I’ll say on the right side of the law instead. They were sued in Australia despite only five copies of the paper being sold there. They lost.

    TimW can be held liable in a Common Law jurisdiction for something said on a blog hosted in America.

  25. Recusant,

    To the very limited credibility I give Italy’s official GDP figure, Italy is one of those economies that has had fundamental economic problems since long before the Euro. Like Spain, nothing is happening that didn’t happen before. And it’s still, what, ~25th richest country in the world, well above the EU average, not far behind the UK, etc.

  26. Großer – economic problems (or to be more polite, differences in economic performance) before the € were reflected in the historic decline in the LIT/DEM exchange rate.

    On the subject of being polite about Italy – I hope we have all enjoyed Mr Juncker’s emollient intervention.

  27. SMFS

    TimW can be held liable in a Common Law jurisdiction for something said on a blog hosted in America.

    That’s interesting, and fwiw I’ve no idea if all that you say there is technically 100% correct, but a simple question might be “who”? The owner of the web site (which could be a corporate / other), the blogger / host (more easily identifiable if not taking the Guido approach), or the anonymous posters that provide “content” links in the comments?

    Looking at the case you link to, it would appear that they weren’t successfully sued on the basis of just 5 printed editions sent to (but none in fact arriving in) Australia, but the fact that “the Internet version of the magazine had 550,000 international subscribers and 1700 Australian-based credit cards”.

    Which is slightly different from a blog – no one “subscribes” here?

    This may also be relevant, also from the link:

    Equally, however, the majority of the Court (Gleeson CJ, McHugh, Gummow and Hayne JJ handing down a joint decision) stated that they disagreed that this would cause open-slather defamation actions in Australia: (at para 54 of the decision)

    …the spectre which Dow Jones sought to conjure up in the present appeal, of a publisher forced to consider every article it publishes on the World Wide Web against the defamation laws of every country from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe is seen to be unreal when it is recalled that in all except the most unusual of cases, identifying the person about whom material is to be published will readily identify the defamation law to which that person may resort.

    Which is all a bit removed from generally linking content, which is what this is about?

    As you can see, I don’t know the answer, which I why am asking? I would suggest that it’s perhaps more complex than simply “Tim did it”; and hence off-shore for a blogger may be a perfectly good result rather than being “put out of business” by the usual idiocy from Brussels (or Westminster if that was the case)?

  28. PF, the way it works (or used to) is that for libel, the liability arises within the jurisdiction where the copy of the article is read, not where it was published (if they are different). So the fact that the server is in Timbuktu is irrelevant, if the copy is opened in a browser on a device located in the UK.

  29. Ducky,

    Sure, I understood that much from SMFS’s link etc, but I’m not sure it deals with the issue Ecks refers to above (and it’s not about libel).

    If it did, that would imply that this potential new EU ruling (if it goes ahead) would automatically apply to every media outlet in the world?

    And if the EU then created a new law that said that no is allowed to poke fun at Mr Juncker’s cognac habit, or Australia ruled that no one must ever refer to its criminal heritage, then those laws would also then automatically apply world wide. Which should clearly be nonsense?

    You can see the point I am trying to make.

  30. PF – “And if the EU then created a new law that said that no is allowed to poke fun at Mr Juncker’s cognac habit, or Australia ruled that no one must ever refer to its criminal heritage, then those laws would also then automatically apply world wide. Which should clearly be nonsense?”

    Why would it be nonsense? It should be, I agree. But it isn’t. The laws Europeans have passed have been ones banning Holocaust denial for instance. Which apply world-wide. An Australian Holocaust-denier Fredrick Töben has been jailed by Germany a number of times. In 2008 he was transiting Heathrow when the Germans applied for his extradition. Not for something he said in Germany but for something his website in Australia had said.

  31. “In March I wrote…on tax evasion and tax avoidance, the VAT tax gap and tax settlements.

    The last is not my area of expertise. And there are definitely those more expert on some of the VAT issues on which questions were asked than I am.”

    Christ. How modest.

    There are some people more expert on some bits of VAT than Spud.

  32. I once had a VAT inspection and the guy they sent had been involved in the introduction of the current VAT system, first thing he pointed out was it was now so complicated in some areas it was almost impossible not to make a mistake, in fact he had to schedule a break in the inspection as he needed to go and assist another inspector as he was an expert on a particular area so had to go and give his opinion on a case (opticians I seem to recall, something about the rules around frames/lenses being on the complex side).
    He was looking forward to retirement in 6 months so it was a very relaxed, interesting and informative inspection

  33. “he pointed out was it was now so complicated in some areas it was almost impossible not to make a mistake”

    He’s right.

    It’s one of the main jobs of accountants these days to keep their clients from falling foul of byzantine tax rules and deadlines.

    For which Nobby Nobfuck the client will query why I have the impertinence to charge for half a day’s time it takes to sort out a fuck-up Nobby caused to his company’s tax affairs by doing it himself to save money on fees.

    Twat.

  34. Talking of which I had three emails today from a client asking questions about filing his own tax return.

    Each answer I gave included the line that I could do it for him if he wanted.

    In his final email he thanked me for the offer but said he was doing it himself. He didn’t see the irony.

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