Ain’t this fun? Labour third in Wales

Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party stormed to victory in Wales, knocking Labour into an embarrassing third.

Mr Farage’s movement claimed 32 per cent of the vote in the country, more than 10 points ahead of their nearest rivals.

Sure, it’s not quite the knock out the SNP delivered in Scotland but wouldn’t it be fun if the Celtic vote simply abandoned Labour at Westminster. We’d have to fear them a great deal less, no?

52 comments on “Ain’t this fun? Labour third in Wales

  1. God bless those magnificent Cambrians.

    I take back everything I ever said about male voice choirs, aeroplane pointing, and Rhydian from X Factor. (But not Torchwood, which will always be shite).

  2. Seen the results from the northern heartlands? It’s not just the Celts who are abandoning labour. the refusal of the London-centric leadership to look outside the M25 is causing them to lose votes big time.

  3. Amused that Labour appear to be still calling for a general election.
    So how many seats could they lose? And could SNP become the opposition?

  4. This is the unwind of all those heartlands that voted solidly Labour because the near religious love for unions and Labour (and there were good reasons for that) mattered. They probably even raised their kids as “this is a Labour household, we vote Labour”. But those kids and their grandchildren just don’t think Labour has done anything for them.

    People look at London getting the dome, the Olympics, modernisation of the opera house, all sorts of expensive bridges, museums, crossrail and what does Barnsley or Aberdare get?

  5. Labour are in a bad place on Brexit. Their MP’s, members and activists are overwhelmingly Federasts.

    However, their voters – outside of the Metropolitan fart-sniffing onanist bubble – are not. (And the activists are seriously unrepresentative of Labour voters in other ways – not many votes in espousing radical tranny gender politics in Sunderland, for egg samples, and this could bite them as Mumsnet feminists spread the word).

    Bit of a cleft stick, that.

    For the Tories, becoming a No Deal Brexit party is pretty much all upside. The kind of people who might vote Conservative, their members and activists, overwhelmingly want to Leave.

    For that reason, I expect them to choose the sweet embrace of oblivion instead, a metaphorical charge of the shite brigade in another doomed general election campaign.

  6. The Welsh Assembly has been firmly Remain and following in the footsteps of the Scots, will be interesting to see if they change following this result. My money is on them doubling down and becoming more stridently Remain

  7. Yes, this looks like an event horizon kind of scenario.

    Momentum, which as far as I can tell is the mutaween of what Steve calls the “fart-sniffers” is behind Corbo. He knows that, and that they keep him in the style to which he is now accustomed. I sense no fight in him to bring back the Labour heartlands. If that’s right, then Labour under Corbo is finally seen for what it is – a niche interest among unreconstructed soap-dodgers and oh-look-at-me-I’m-so-edgy-cos-I’ve-got-a-tatt bourgeois.

    That makes them about as electorally attractive as the Lib Dems, and with less experience of the hard work of treading pavements, leafleting and setting fires in order to be seen putting them out.

    So that vote then gets split three ways at least: Lib Dem, Labour and Green.

    And the same thing is true of the Tories. I’ve written here before about how they need to be given a bit of fire and sword treatment. Quite a lot of that, in fact. Bojo’s great quality is that he is a charming cad. But he’s also unprincipled* and I would not trust him as far as I could throw him. Given that he is as fat as Roy Hattersley, I doubt I could pick him up in the first place. Raab sounds like he has promise but I doubt he could deliver it. But I do like the sound of Priti Patel. Partly it’s her charming dimples. Partly, she does seem to have some principles, so she has a bit of steel. Partly, the phwacist Little Englander allegations will melt off her.

    Get Baker, Davis, Raab, Moggie as clever Chancellor, even Bojo in some plenipotentiary pan-portfolio role in which he charms people but can do no negotiatory harm, with Nigel (surely the future Duke of England) holding their toes to the flames … then, then, maybe, we can get this done properly.

    Not that it would not take a brain haemhorrage (sic? can’t be bothered to check) to make me vote for the wretched swine, but there might come a point where I am prepared simply to spoil my ballot paper.

    Obs, the technocrats like Hammond and Isaac must be culled. The eminences grises like Leftwing and … is Francis Maud still alive? … and Heseltine and Clark, must be, oh well, you get the picture.

    I had my doubts about voting last week. In the end I am glad I did. Another notch on Nigel’s coat of arms.

    * Ironically, it was Bojo’s columns for the Telegraph (when it was still a serious newspaper) from Brussels in the late ’80s and early ’90s which first got me thinking about that nature of that Beast.

  8. Edward

    Yes, Davis and Raab as tag team taking on Barnier et al with clear objectives* and true home support sounds about as good as it gets with what’s left.

    Moggie as Chancellor would even signal some return to fiscal prudence and true blue principles

    * Nice deal, please. No? OK s*d off then. (all done in the first day of negotiating). Then flat out getting even readier.

    Have a brother who has worked for Bojo. His opinion coincides with yours. Even he, obviously somewhere in the Civil Service has gone from a die-hard remainer to, let’s reform it, to wanting to come out. He like many seems worried about our ability to survive. But he’s already seen one trade deal negotiated and ready… Project fear worked among our many servants.

    This is make or break for the Conservatives and for the country.

  9. Edward – “But I do like the sound of Priti Patel.”

    I like the *everything* of Priti Patel, she makes polls rise and no mistake. It’s a good job I’m not in Cabinet, or I’d be sacked after a Benny Hill style lecherous Yakety-Sax chase around Downing Street to the utter bemusement of Larry the Cat.

    Make Britain Sexy Again!

  10. Edward,

    I see BoJo as unprincipled. He’s a charlatan. I’ve met managers like him and they’re very good at convincing people of a course of action based on personality, but they don’t do detail. So it easily falls apart.

    You need someone who is totally committed to Brexit, someone who has gone over it all in their head so won’t be swayed the other way.

  11. Pretty triumphal for a loser aren`t you Tim? There is no possible way to interpret the European result other than a remain victory. Do the sums
    Brexit -Brexit Party 31.6 UKIP 3.3 %= 34.9%
    Remain-Lib Dem20.3% Green 12.1% Plaid Cymru 1% SNP3.6% Change UK3.4% = 39.4%
    Not so hard is it and my own feeling is that the old Party vote is probably majority remain
    Now I take it you are now supporting the democracy of an superannuated electorate the size of Worthing forcing a No Deal disaster that no-one voted for on us
    The country will never recover you can barely imagine the depth of bitterness on my side , forced off a plank by that leering frog faced arsehole ! Jesus .

    One thing he ahs got right , the system we have got is now utterly bankrupt and has to go

  12. BoM4, quite. That’s why I say put him in a position ostensibly of importance but in which he can do no harm and in the meantime hearten the troops. Let’s face it, he’s likeable. But remind ourselves he should never be trusted.

    Steve, many years ago a girlfriend defined ‘sexy’ to me. She said it was was everything below the neck/head. She was talking about women. I rather like PP, for the reasons aforesaid. And because I like her, I shan’t be so ungallant as to develop your theme. I’ll stick with her dimples and raise her delightful smile.

    But I will add this: I think she’s go that feminine thing so often lacking among today’s, er, females, of getting blokes to do stuff BECAUSE SHE IS OBVIOUSLY A WOMAN.

    Maggie had it in spades, of course.

  13. Newmania, you can barely imagine the depths of bitterness on my side.

    We waited patiently for 41 years for this, you wretched man. You’ve spent the last three years crying like toddlers. Take it like a grown-up. It’s out turn. Geddit?

    It’s our turn.

    Your next one comes in 2057.

  14. Newmania, The Conservatives and Labour both stood on a Brexit platform. Now add their votes to your silly tally and see what you’ve got.

    Big. Leave. Majority.

  15. BoM4, quite. That’s why I say put him in a position ostensibly of importance but in which he can do no harm and in the meantime hearten the troops. Let’s face it, he’s likeable. But remind ourselves he should never be trusted

    Agree with the statements Boris, he’s bone idle and you really and you really don’t want the sort of person who goes through life thinking they can “cuff it” and rely on charm whenever it suits them. A big reason Maggie was so successful was she worked damned hard to make sure she understood the detail. She was renowned for understanding her Cabinet Ministers’ briefs better then they did.

    Obviously Boris needs a Cabinet level job so Minister Without Portfolio and a brief to do the PR, especially amongst the troops.

  16. Ah yes – the delightful Priti. Brings out the Inner Cad in a gent. Can’t decide if it’s more Leslie “Ding-dong” Philips or Terry-Thomas “Hellloooo”
    Plus she’s a pro-Israel Thatcherite. What’s not to like?

  17. We waited patiently for 41 years for this

    Ha ha ha .. waited patiently ? Fuck me what rock have you been living under ?After Maastricht ,despite Goldsmiths money the “Referendum Party” polled 2.6%, that how much anyone cared about the constitutional issue , a few old tits at Bruges group meetings. That is not waiting that is not existing .
    The BNP on the other hand were the second choice Party of a Majority of Labour voters which tells you all you need to know about what this is really about .

  18. “Bojo’s great quality is that he is a charming cad. But he’s also unprincipled* and I would not trust him as far as I could throw him…”

    Milton Friedman had a quote on not bothering to seek the “right people”, but to make it politically profitable for the “wrong people” to do the right thing.

    PM BoJo is the obvious choice for defeating Labour (ask the Labourites) and rousing pissed off Tories. He just has to have his feet held to the fire (to do what he wants to do anyway) when he faces some back pressure.

  19. Pretty triumphal for a loser aren`t you Tim? There is no possible way to interpret the European result other than a remain victory. Do the sums
    Brexit -Brexit Party 31.6 UKIP 3.3 %= 34.9%
    Remain-Lib Dem20.3% Green 12.1% Plaid Cymru 1% SNP3.6% Change UK3.4% = 39.4%

    This sort of thinking was amusing when I first saw it this morning, now its getting irritating to the point I feel like punching those putting it forward.

    Leaving aside the Conservative and Labour votes which were based on a Brexit manifesto, those Remain groups don’t even agree amongst themselves what they want. Some want a straight forward revocation of A50 and others want a second vote. Of those that want a 2nd vote they can’t agree on what should be asked. They won’t get anything through Parliament. because that’s where the numbers count.

    The default still remains No Deal and no amount of cooking the numbers will change that.

  20. The Rock of Gibraltar, Newmania old chum. British territory. We’re all olive-skinned down here, too. Like the charming Priti. Stop worrying about the waycist thing. Most Brexiteers have purer hearts than do you. Not me, of course, tho.

    Now stop whingeing, and go and do the dishes.

  21. “…he’s bone idle and you really and you really don’t want the sort of person who goes through life thinking they can “cuff it” and rely on charm whenever it suits them.”

    And yet London survived.

  22. Mr in North Dorset, one of my first go-tos this morning was to find out what had happened to Hannan. For a Tory, a decent sort, IMV. As far as I can tell with this conti-smorgasbord voting racket, he kept his seat. And he is a sound Brexiteer, even if he is a Tory.

    So what does that tell us? It tells us your remarks are at least to some extent correct: there are people who in some circs will vote Tory confident in the belief that it is a vote to leave.

  23. Yes, Davis and Raab as tag team taking on Barnier et al with clear objectives* and true home support sounds about as good as it gets with what’s left.

    This reminds me … I was reading something yesterday and it made me realise that Remainers have made it axiomatic that we will be infinitely worse off economically, in security and in health, especially with No Deal.

    I can see a short effect on the economy but certainly not project fear, but I’ve not seen anything that justifies the other two and anything else Remainers throw out. One example was the company that sells us flu jabs reckons they won’t be able to get them to us if we don’t have the regulations in place*. Simples – just pass an interim law that says all medicines that have been approved for use in the EU are automatically approved for use here (I’m surprised we haven’t got such a law).

    Another I heard was that the French will stop selling us electricity across the channel connections. We’ve been trading electrons with the French since before we joined the EEC, we don’t need to be in a political union to continue.

    Remainers should be challenged when they make these statements, partly because it will embarrass them as most of it is just project fear but mostly so we can see what needs to be done, if anything.

    * H/T Tom Paine on Twitter.

  24. On the subject of Nigel’s Coat of Arms – the sort of thing I generally deprecate, but I’ll make an exception this time – does anyone know if it is possible to engrave 17.4 million notches on an escutcheon?

    Perhaps it would have to be an unusually big escutcheon …

  25. Well, Mr in ND, the Frogs might go for a version of Boney’s Contintental System. But if they do it’s their loss, we beat it last time and by some estimates the French people lost whole inches (or centimetres, as they probably call them) in their height over the course of the 19th century in their attempt to impose this System.

    It’s probably true, come to think of it. Remember Hollande flanked by be-bearskinned Guards a few years back. Oh, and Sarkozy’s flamenco heels.

  26. Inter-governmental agreements are a sometimes necessary brake on trade, not a requirement.

    If we want to buy flu jabs that are currently approved, and someone wants to sell them to us, then even the dimmest government should be able to see a post-Brexit solution.

    And Macron may wish to interfere with the electricity supply. He’ll have to get that past the Yellow Vests paid to produce it though.

  27. Newmania.

    Not one person who voted in the EU election on Thursday was asked to put an ‘X’ next to leave or remain.

    Not one.

    Those voting remain on Thursday 0%.
    Those voting leave on Thursday 0%

    If you want to frot yourself into a greasy lather over some fantasy interpretation of the results, go ahead.

  28. If the Conservative Party elect Boris or Raab or Leadsom and try to shove us off a cliff in October, sufficient Conservatives, such as Dominic Grieve, have been quite clear that they will bring down the government before they let a collection of half baked mentally feeble Fascists wreck the country .
    That will precipitate a general, election with the Brexit Party playing . That will not happen

    The only progress that has been made has been to show that no intermediate point exists. The only way to resolve the position is to put the true choice to the people
    No Deal v Remain

  29. PJF,

    “And yet London survived.”

    Almost nothing important is decided by the Mayor of London, or the people in charge of any other local authority. They’re highly constrained by EU and Westminster law. What’s his major achievements? Banning drinking on the tube, Boris bikes, a cable car? What else?

  30. Get the message you Facepainting fuck. Only scum like the remainiacs add up the losers and declare they won. Has there EVER been an election in the UK where the winners outnumbered all the losers? You fucking scumrot imbecile. Bliar got 27% –or something near–for his last election but the fuck was still PM.

    It was always No Deal vs Remain scum like you. NO DEAL WON.

  31. Newmaniac talking through xer arse – no change there. The turnout was much lower than in a GE or what it would be likely to be in an unlikely 2nd referendum. All the evidence is that Remainiacs were more likely to have voted – unsurprisingly given that Leave voters (a) don’t think the EU Parliament has any point to begin with and (b) are understandably aggrieved that their votes have previously been ignored.

  32. Yesterday I wrote this:
    http://www.timworstall.com/2019/05/26/tee-hee-99/#comment-866980

    Later I came across this:

    Too many of you to count said – predictably, we admit – ‘none of the above’, commenting you wouldn’t vote for any of them. The irony is that you’d far rather cast your vote for one of the true Brexiteers who haven’t – at least as yet – volunteered their names, as Bruce Mills wrote:

    None of these have said they’d said they’d want the job but Owen Paterson, John Redwood, IDS, David Davis are top chaps. Instinctively I trust them. At the moment can’t think of any female other than Leadsom who appeals if only for the frosty disdain she displays towards Bercow when engaged in their games.

    Edit: Forgot Priti Patel: top woman!

    Great minds….

    Given who is running, I support BoJo despite his flaws. He, like Nigel, JRM and Trump, can connect with voters of all parties, isn’t PC, shrugs of mistakes and speaks facts even if “wrong-think” (eg woman in jail in Iran)

    BoJo knows his limitations and will point a cabinet to help achieve his aims.

  33. Whoever wins the story leadership, it has to be after an actual, proper context. No unopposed coronation – these people need to be tested. The procession of May was a fucking disaster – “oh, we don’t want to appear divided” – only the media gives a shit.

  34. Poor Newmania – utterly clobbered again. He avoids the centralisation of hand outs to landowners which is the EU’s primary fiscal purpose. He avoids mentioning if he prefers Timmmans or Weber as the next EU Commissioner, which is about the only power the EP has, but agrees that whoever it is should have some say in how he lives his life.
    TBP are beautiful in the simplicity of their message – they don’t want any say in who the next Commissioner is, and don’t want said Commissioner to have any say in the internal affairs of the UK

  35. Ha Newmania, what a dick.

    First he says that the Conservatives are not a pro-Brexit party, then he hypothesizes a Conservative leader who goes for a No-deal Brexit. Again, what a dick and a moron to boot.

  36. PM May – is she really going?

    …There is concern that Mrs May could come under huge pressure from EU leaders to make concessions, even though she will be serving in a caretaker capacity as leader of the UK. Just hours after Mrs May’s resignation speech, French President Emmanuel Macron urged “swift clarification” on Brexit.’

    Peter Hitchens might not have been so wrong when he laughingly warned last week that Theresa May could still be PM in 2029.

    BBC reporter and Brexitcast host Chris Mason has pointed out: ‘The speech yesterday was her tending May’s resignation as leader of the Tory party. Not as Prime Minister’.

    Worrying

  37. Adonis once more failed to win a democratic vote. He’ll just have to stick with collecting his £300 a day for turning up in the Lords.

  38. Huzzah for Mr Lud (4:09pm) and a Priti government.

    Only one thing worries me – why the hell hasn’t she announced her candidature yet?

  39. I see BoJo as unprincipled. He’s a charlatan. I’ve met managers like him and they’re very good at convincing people of a course of action based on personality, but they don’t do detail. So it easily falls apart.

    So like Trump then? Or, for that matter, Obama.

    No-one running a major country should be doing detail.

  40. Welsh Labour leader declares after EU result that they will support a second referendum and remain, are these people totally clueless

  41. I love the assumption that 100% of Green, SNP and Plaid were extremist Remainers, but none of the Tory or Labour voters were at all interested in Leaving.

    There were two clearly Leave parties and two clearly Remain parties to vote for if this election was about Brexit for you. Leave killed it, but then all we know from that is people who support no deal out number people who support revoke. 60% didn’t vote for clear Leave or Remain parties.

    Losers moan and count votes from people who didn’t vote for them. Winners go home and fuck the prom queen. Nige was the one getting his end away last night.

  42. Welsh Labour leader declares after EU result that they will support a second referendum and remain, are these people totally clueless

    I think Labour has no choice but to support remain. Hear me out:

    4 scenarios:

    1) Tories Remain; Labour Remain.
    2) Tories Remain; Labour Leave.
    3) Tories Leave; Labour Remain.
    4) Tories Leave; Labour Leave.

    Scenario 1 Tories Remain; Labour Remain.

    Tories and Labour both lose all the Brexit votes to TBP. Labour get the lion’s share of the Remain votes back from Lib Dems etc. :Labour kill the Tories in an election. Corbyn in
    No. 10.

    Scenario 2 Tories Remain; Labour Leave.

    Leave vote gets split between Labour and TBP etc. Tories get some of the Remain vote but not as much as Labour do in scenario 1. Votes are distributed across all parties no one is getting enough to have a majority.

    Scenario 3 Tories Leave; Labour Remain.

    Tories get back the vast majority of Leave votes, TBP go the way of UKIP picking up some but not enough for any seats. Labour get most of the Remain votes and it’s close come election time.

    Scenario 4 Tories Leave; Labour Leave.

    Tories get the majority of the Leave votes. Labour get a ok share of the leave votes from left wing leavers. Remain votes get shared between Lib dems, Greens etc. Tories beat Labour.

    So from the way I see it whatever the Tories do Labour are better off picking Remain and, more importantly, Tories have to pick Leave because both scenarios where they pick Remain the die. Ideally for Labour Tories would go Remain and they just copy them but then Tories switch to Leave and therefore Scenario 3 is the Nash equilibrium.

    That’s how I see it anyway, I’m no expert mind.

  43. “The BNP on the other hand were the second choice Party of a Majority of Labour voters which tells you all you need to know about what this is really about .”

    Let’s take that proposition as true, Newmania. And it may well be so . If one listens to white, working class, presumably Labour voters, their opinions on certain matters have more than a tint of BNP about them. That you regard this with horror doesn’t remove it as a fact. And their votes carry exactly the same weight as your’s does. A democracy, innit? If this ” tells you all you need to know about what this is really about” then it tells you what it’s about. It doesn’t disqualify their votes. .You would seem to be disproving your own argument.

  44. @Dongguan John:

    I agree with you that the Tories must campaign on the basis of Leave (since this is where the majority of their base lies) and they would struggle in any election if they didn’t campaign in this position. The only differentiation within the Tory vote is between those who want a Hard BRExit and those who want a softer BRExit (not that such a thing could ever exist with the EU, but there you go).

    The problem for Labour though is that they lose votes regardless of the position they take. If they were to come out of the closet and campaign for “Remain” then they would lose much of their tribal vote in the North West, North East and Wales. If they campaign for “Leave” then they lose the metropolitan and New immigrant vote.

    I’m assuming this is why Labour have been sending mixed messages of “Second Referendum” / “Customs Union” / “BRINO”, because they need to shore up different parts of their base who want different things.

    The reality is that a Tory Leave vs Labour Remain general election campaign would see Labour support bleed away in the North to BXP without the BXP seeing much in the way of seats.

    So you’d end up with the Tories being the largest party again, but with a much smaller number of MP’s than present for Tory AND Labour. BXP would get some small number of MP’s (less than 20) and the smaller parties (SNP, Lib Dems and Greens) would benefit from the leaching away of Tory and Labour support.

    Given the nature and political polarity of possible coalitions (CON / DUP / BXP vs LAB / LIB or LAB / SNP) we’d have continental style chaos until normal order was resumed.

    My electoral math is based upon the following parliamentary make up.

    Conservative 248 (-65)
    Labour 226 (-20)
    Scottish National Party 49 (14)
    Liberal Democrat 58 (47)
    Democratic Unionist Party 10 (0)
    Independent 6 (-4)
    BXP 20 (20)
    Sinn Féin 7 (0)
    Green Party 13 (12)
    Plaid Cymru 9 (5)
    Change UK – The Independent Group 3 (-8)
    Speaker 1 (0)
    Vacant 0 (-1)

    Given the punishment of the Lib Dems after the 2010 coalition, I doubt that the Lib Dems would want to go into formal coalition with either the Tories or Labour.

    Given the above (and the current political climate), the best the Tories can do is to lance the boil of BRExit to get its poison out of the political system as soon as possible (since it harms them most of all) and then try and rebuild under a new leader (blaming May for all that has gone before) and hope for a better economic recovery before the GE in 2022.

  45. . A democracy, innit?

    Yeah I also dislike the decision of the German people to create the position of Fuhrer and ignore the Versaille Treaty thereby plunging the world into a catastrophe of industrial slaughter.
    You know what we remoaners are like always think we know best

  46. German political history 1919 to 1933 is obviously another lacuna in your compendium of ignorance, Newmania.

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