Most perceptive Polly

In these elections remain was the winner, not Farage.

Well, yes, clearly so.

What mattered beyond the number of seats won was the sum of remain votes. Lib Dem, Green, Scottish National party, Plaid Cymru and Change UK outpolled Brexit and Ukip by 40.4% remain to 34.9% hard Brexit. Now add in Labour and Conservative votes, divided – as pollsters Britain Thinks and YouGov suggest – by allocating 80% of Tory votes to leave, and 60% of Labour votes to remain. That suggests a remain win in a referendum by 50% to 47%. Certain? Of course not – it’s close – but this three-point remain majority certainly makes it a democratic outrage to press ahead with any kind of Brexit without giving voters the final say. And what is not in doubt is that there’s a clear majority against a no-deal Brexit.

Jeez Polly. The entire parliamentary problem is that there’s no majority on favour of any one specific outcome. All you’ve done there is state the same thing. There’re all sorts of majorities against one specific outcome and one in favour of any one. That’s the entire damn problem, isn’t it?

59 comments on “Most perceptive Polly

  1. That suggests a remain win in a referendum by 50% to 47%.

    Funny how referendums come in and out of fashion

  2. Where have the other three % gone? She’s an idiot.

    Her way of working it out should have ended up 51.5 % Remain and 48.5 % Leave.

  3. by allocating 80% of Tory votes to leave, and 60% of Labour votes to remain.

    Lets say that’s right for sake of argument. Assuming SNP, Green & Plaid voters all would vote Remain and exactly all the same people who voted this time would vote again you get the 51.5 % Remain win.

    Factor in the probably small minority SNP, Green & Plaid voters who would vote Leave, the fact that there was a lower turn out in Leave voting regions and the fact that EU citizens resident in the UK voted in this election ….

    Probably get about the same slight Leave win that we saw in 2016, maybe even a little bigger margin.

  4. If it’s details you want, there’s a 10,000-voter exit poll, deeply analysed, here:
    Lord Ashcroft’s post-electin poll

    Key quotes (emphasis added by myself):
    “Overall, 89% of Euro-election voters who voted Leave still want Brexit to happen – 55% of them with no deal – and 7% now say they want to remain. Meanwhile, 81% of remainers who voted last week say they still want to remain, with 15% now saying the best outcome would be to leave.”

    “Among all those voting in the European elections, 50% said they had voted to remain in the referendum and 45% to leave; now, 50% said they wanted to leave, 46% said they wanted to remain, and 4% didn’t know.”

    I’d also add that turnout was down in 2016 Leave areas and up in 2016 Remain areas.

    If another referendum were called, I would guess that Nigel Farage would have more success geeign up his non-voting supporters than Remain would getting people to switch sides.

  5. Polly 2016: Referendums are inherently evil and provide a platform for populists.
    Polly 2019: We must have a second referendum!
    Still, leftists and consistency, eh?

    Her ‘analysis’ overlooks the fact that turnout among Remain voters was higher than that for Leave voters – unsurprisingly, since the latter largely think the EU Parliament a pointless talking shop, and have just experienced their votes ignored completely. I’m not sure she should be counting on that happening again in the (hopefully unlikely) event of a second referendum.

  6. this three-point remain majority certainly makes it a democratic outrage

    Hilarious! Her fag packet, innumerate, wishful thinking guesstimate points to a ‘democratic outrage’.

    BTW Remoaner comments on Graun and Times (the Guardian for higher-rate taxpayers) are a source of considerable amusement. There can’t be a dry mattress in Islington.

  7. “The many dark issues that lurk beneath the nativist Brexit idea.”

    I thought the almost certain toxic nature of a rerun was the reason no one wanted another referendum. Five per cent either way (and I wouldn’t like to call it) would be unlikely to settle the issue.

  8. What was the voter turnout for the EU elections as opposed to the 2016 Referendum?

  9. Five per cent either way (and I wouldn’t like to call it) would be unlikely to settle the issue.

    If Remain won 55:45 they’d use that and the 2016 result to extrapolate a straight line graph from the two points ‘proving’ that the entire country will support Remain in about 7 or 8 years so the argument is finished. If they lost 49:51 they’d probably do something but somehow make it exponential.

  10. The mistake that Polly and the rest of them make with their magic maths is in thinking any second referendum will be about Brexit. It won’t, it will be about whether the establishment can be trusted.

    There may have been apathy in Leave areas in the EU vote and I’ve no doubt a lot of Leave voters will be saying “why bother, they won’t listen to us”, but when Nigel gets suck in with a “they’re not listening, tell ’em what you told ’em” message it will resonant, and not just with Leave voters, quite a few Remain voters will understand that message.

    And if Remainers fiddle the question to be some thing like:

    1. Remain in all but name
    2. Revoke A50

    they need to think very carefully about what happens next. The resentment that was building up and propelling UKIP forward before the referendum was called will be nowt compared to what will happen under those circumstances. If the Pollys of this world think that Nigel is a right wing fascist just wait to see what will rise up to feed that resentment, and its hard to see how that’s stopped before there’s blood on the streets.

  11. “What was the voter turnout for the EU elections as opposed to the 2016 Referendum?|”

    I did see something like that. Off the top of my head:

    EU referendum 72%

    EU Elections:

    London 45%
    Other Remain areas ~42%
    Leave areas ~32%

  12. A democratic outrage?

    You mean the fact that we are still in the EU and having this election at all? That democratic outrage?

    There are all kinds of factors at play in an election such as this one that are not present in a simple binary referendum. Not least is the fact that there are areas where a pig with the correct coloured rosette on is guaranteed to win.

  13. The fix is in again.
    Is see the malign hand of Campbell or Blair or someone of that ilk behind this ‘remain won really’ narrative. It’s coordinated across many platforms, not least the BBC and remoaner press but repeated across social media etc. to try and fool the public that there is a majority sentiment for remain when there clearly isn’t.
    See also The Lib Dem’s were the big winners. LOL.

  14. There’re all sorts of majorities against one specific outcome and one in favour of any one. That’s the entire damn problem, isn’t it?

    Errm ..well that would be the reverse of the truth. There is a small but consistent majority in the country for staying as we are which is ( last time I looked ), a specific outcome.
    Of the various Leave fantasies I think No Deal is the most popular and it has about 35%

    What does this suggest. I know lets ask 100,000 bungalow clogging parasites to elect a fat sweaty Farrage impersonator to elevate ethnic cleansing above schools ospitalkz security business jobs , science ..rational fucking thought … you know that stuff.
    Or just stand around stubbing out cigarettes on our faces … ?Close call

  15. In a spirit of compromise, how would it be to agree a second referendum and if remain wins,for the UK to remain in the EU. If leave wins, all MPs who attempted to thwart leave since their 2017 manifestos should be debarred from seeking election for life and should do six months community service dismantling the BBC with pickaxes and shovels.

  16. Well, she’s right, it is blindingly obvious.

    Labour definitely was the success story of the election, let down only by their leave voters who didn’t vote, thus disguising the fact.

    So if we factor in the non voting Labour leavers, we get 85% leave and 15% remain.

    Simple when you know the result you want…

  17. @Stonyground

    “A democratic outrage?

    You mean the fact that we are still in the EU and having this election at all? That democratic outrage?”

    Indeed, not just following on from the referendum but also a GE in which the two largest parties mopped up a very high proportion of votes while promising to Leave in their manifesto.

    In comparison a 3% margin on back of a fag packet numbers given data not really comparable to a referendum in the first place, and where the margin was always slim and within the bounds of polling and modelling error, is hardly an outrage at all.

  18. If Britain revokes A50 there will be substantial reparations to be made, not the least of which will be be surrendering the right to ever invoke A50 ever again. Britain’s relationship to the EU will be substantially changed. There is no “remain” because there isn’t really any way back to the pre-referendum state.

  19. “There is a small but consistent majority in the country for staying as we are…”

    Except for that strange inconsistency on 23rd June 2016 when an actual full sampling opportunity was provided and it was found a majority wanted to leave. Oh, and last Thursday when another actual sampling opportunity resulted in a massive victory for the Brexit Party.

  20. There is no “remain” because there isn’t really any way back to the pre-referendum state

    Not true thing No. 97

    Next?

  21. Oh, and last Thursday when another actual sampling opportunity resulted in a massive victory for the Brexit Party.

    Mr Farrage is a keen fan of proportional representation nowadays and would be the first to agree that a diffuse vote is not ” No Vote”. leave lost the popular vote and roughly in line with the last year’s polling
    The fact that he gets to sit in seats he does not think should exist via a system he says is unfair is not a good argument .
    Its a bad argument
    It is bollocks

  22. These undemocratic arseholes complain like buggery that FPTP is unfair because the overall vote is not reflected in the outcome. This vote used PR and they are still complaining. They lost. It was a fair election and the Brexit Party won it fair and square. All this tells us is that Toynbee does not believe in democracy.

  23. Factor in the probably small minority SNP, Green & Plaid voters who would vote Leave, the fact that there was a lower turn out in Leave voting regions and the fact that EU citizens resident in the UK voted in this election

    As a Manx/Irish resident in bonnie Scotland the amusing thing to me is how the SNP are always put forward (thanks to firm PR by SNP leader and First Minister Wee Jimmy Krankie) that the SNP are a pro-Euro party, deliberately ignoring the 30-40% of SNP voters that are “oot-ooters” preferring an independent Scotland that is out of the EU as well.

    Sure, Scotland voted 60/40 in favour of Remain in the 2016 Referendum, but that 40% didn’t spontaneously arise from the scattered remnants of the Conservative and Unionist Party of Scotland, some proportion of it came from SNP “oot-ooters” as well.

    The reality of all of this is that there is a polarisation of hard core Leavers (regardless of what form of Leave they want) and hard core Remainers with a smaller set of “Don’t Knows / Weak Leavers / Weak Remainers”.

    If we had a second referendum with the same question as in 2016, I believe we’d get a similar result (close, but in favour of Leave), which is why it will never happen. Neither the Tories, nor Labour could go through the electoral bloodshed of another referendum to get yet another marginal decision either way.

    As I said previously, the Tories know this and also know that they can’t go into another General Election without delivering BRExit in some form or another, so regardless of who becomes PM we will be leaving in October, deal or no deal, simply because nothing else will allow the Tories to survive.

  24. @John Galt

    Not all the Tories seem to believe that not delivering Brexit is fatal – Hammond and Grieve seem to think that remaining is an option for the Tory party.

  25. Newmania – anyone who thinks we can turn the clock back to 22nd June 2016 is misunderstanding modern politics completely.
    The biggest stonking FACT about Britain today is that we’re part of the EU, when a majority of the electorate, when asked, said they didn’t want to be.
    And it’s fanciful to think we could re-join under the same terms as now – rebates, exemptions, our own currency and passport control – and retain those terms for very long. The rebate would go immediately, the pressure to join the euro would mount, immigration control would be at risk – Schengen, of course.

  26. @ken:

    Not all the Tories seem to believe that not delivering Brexit is fatal – Hammond and Grieve seem to think that remaining is an option for the Tory party.

    I agree, but that just goes to show the idiocy within the elite / metropolitan bubble more than anything else. Just because Hammond, Grieve and the other Quislings believe it to be so doesn’t make it true.

  27. Roue le Jour

    Unlike the primary EU funded Remainiac Troll who persists on here your comments are as always spot on and in this case timely. Anyone who saw the Storyville documentary following the Verhofstadt team (which I still cannot believe was broadcast) will only be able to imagine the orgy of ecstasy with which he will deign to allow the UK to revoke article 50. As you say – it may well involve the removal of Article 50 as a future option. You can see Boris or whoever takes the crown of Zombie PM echoing Michael Corleone in ‘The Godfather Part 3′

    : Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in’

    What the likes of Toynbee and the troll conveniently seem to ignore is that the Libdems (for example) on Thursday ran on a platform of open treason – the abolition of the UK as an independent nation state. Their relative ‘success’ illustrates how pernicious the impact of 4 decades of belonging to the EU is. How deep the rot has set in. I echo all the excellent commentators on here who echo the points about turnout. Remainers got everyone out to vote, and were further buoyed by (Presumably) legions of EU voters who I imagine were all voting Libdem. They still took a hammering. I can only imagine if Nigel rouses the apathetic to actually turn out the ‘Remain’ side is in for a fearful hammering.

    Additionally, the Troll may want to take a look at events in Italy, Algeria and the general tide of Eurozone economic news to see the future prospects of the EU. Grim doesn’t even come close. Why stay shackled to a corpse?

  28. A data point: in my Leave-voting northern England borough there are 1,417 “G” (non-UK EU) electors out of 89,929. That’s 1.6%.
    I would expect it to be higher in Remain-voting areas, but by how much I don’t know, and don’t know how to get access to UK-wide figures.

  29. Why are folk even giving brain space to remain shite. The fucking losers won? Add up all the losers and they won? So the losers won every election ever?

    Nor is the claim that anyone not voting for the Brexit Party supports remainiac scum. And at barely over half the turnout with lots of leave areas not giving a shite about the rubberstamp EU Parliament. Yes the MEPs can humiliate –an important task–but not destroy the fucking ESpew. As it should be destroyed. The Tory vote was also likely mainly leave-but-dumb-enough-to-believe-Treason May’s cockrot.

    As for the Facepainter–a civil war will make a quicker and kinder demise for him than the nuthouse he is headed for. After three years of the treason, lies and evil of creatures like Toynbee and Facepaint that is an increasingly attractive option.

  30. If Britain revokes A50 there will be substantial reparations to be made, not the least of which will be be surrendering the right to ever invoke A50 ever again. Britain’s relationship to the EU will be substantially changed. There is no “remain” because there isn’t really any way back to the pre-referendum state.

    Yes, this is an aspect of the “Repeal A50 and vote again” thing that the useful idiots supporting it don’t understand.

    Article 50 only existed because of the argument from some corners that “we can’t sign a treaty that we cannot leave”. Hence it was included as a contractual mechanism for exit, but was never meant to be used in practice.

    The EU have already explicitly said that the UK cannot revoke Article 50 and then resubmit it at some later date.

    If the UK were to revoke Article 50 (pending a new vote on Leave / Remain) then I wouldn’t put it past the EU to add additional criteria in the meantime either explicitly preventing Article 50 from being used more than once or requiring some impossibly high level of compliance such as a Qualified Majority Vote in order to leave.

    All of this will be put forward as protecting the integrity and security of the Single Market, rather than the reality of having a “Hotel California” type exit clause.

    I would also expect BRINO style Withrdrawal Agreements with all of the associated one-sided compliance to be formally attached to withdrawal, making legal exit technically allowed, but practically impossible.

  31. oo! oo! A bit of research I did in 2013, the 2011 Census has a breakdown of population by passport holding, which I used to make an estimation of elector under-registration: http://mdfs.net/maps/Sheffield/lgbr2013/evidence/

    In that paper I was looking at the total of eligible electors out of the total population, so UK+EU+BC/total, but the figures are available from the Census to calculate UK+BC/UK+EU+BC. Adding a column for that data gives 2.12% of the Sheffield electorate in 2011 were non-UK EU electors. Grab the full UK data and do the same calculation.

  32. Henry: 17-and-a-half million voted in the EU election last week. 17-and-a-half million voted Leave three years ago out of 34 million voting.

  33. In terms of whether a second referendum would actually “fix” things or not, it’s interesting how many Remain politicians see it as a panacea. I think they’re just assuming that they’re going to win. But what do they think/say they would do if they lost? Would they really go through with that decision? If they genuinely think Brexit is unimplementable then the honest response is surely Revoke.

  34. If they genuinely think Brexit is unimplementable then the honest response is surely Revoke.

    …but then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy, like any act of cowardice.

  35. As Toynbee casually ignores: The referendum had over twice the turnout for it than the Euro election. Several million EU nationals can vote in the Euros but not the referendum. The Brexit party still won the most number of seats. ‘Nuff said.

  36. Polly’s only consistency is that she’s never met a bureaucracy she didn’t love.

  37. Follow-up from ContiGraph:

    In 2017, 3,666,000 UK residents were non-UK EU citizens.
    Of those, 12% were children, so 3,226,080 were adults with voting rights.

    In 2017, the UK Parliamentary electorate was 46,800,000, this being UK electors who are not non-UK EU citizens.

    So, in 2017 the total UK electorate was 50,066,080
    So, in 2017, 6.4% of the UK electorate were non-UK EU citizens.

  38. @Dr Evil

    “Several million EU nationals can vote in the Euros but not the referendum. ”

    Them’s the rules for the last referendum.

    Since the next referendum, if it occurs, would be a “take no chances” affair, I wouldn’t bet on the rules being the same.

    We’ll know exactly how desperate they are if the talk comes to sixteen year olds getting the vote…

  39. Sixteen year olds? They’d give the vote to six year olds if they thought it was necessary for Remain to win a second referendum.

  40. Corbinite insiders have revealed to me that thanks to a combination of Trump, Brexit and Greta Thunberg Labour will potentially give the vote to 5 year olds. Additionally they will examine the possibliity of a ‘maximum voting age’ for non- party members.

  41. I recall that we had some lessons about how a general election works when an election happened while I was at school. I think that in general it was an honest attempt to educate us all about the process. The one exception was the reference to spoiling the ballot which apparently was only done by people who were too stupid to understand the very simple process involved in voting. At no time was it mentioned that it could be done as a protest.

  42. The problem for Polly is that there is a large absolute majority of leave voting constituencies. So a Westminster election held on a single issue will always result in a leave win

    Lol – watch Polly and friends fall out of love with the rotten boroughs.

  43. The one exception was the reference to spoiling the ballot which apparently was only done by people who were too stupid to understand the very simple process involved in voting. At no time was it mentioned that it could be done as a protest.

    I was acting as counting agent at the Perth and Kinross Euro election count on Sunday. Fairly boring stuff really, mostly just making sure the fanatics of the SNP don’t intimidate the poor girls doing the counting.

    Going through the procedures regarding “Doubtful” ballots was amusing. Lots of free expression going on. Lots of penises being drawn on ballot papers. Having said that the number of spoiled ballot papers was very low (187 in total)

  44. “. . . democratic outrage to press ahead with any kind of Brexit without giving voters the final say.”

    How many final says does she want?

  45. The resentment that was building up and propelling UKIP forward before the referendum was called will be nowt compared to what will happen under those circumstances. If the Pollys of this world think that Nigel is a right wing fascist just wait to see what will rise up to feed that resentment, and its hard to see how that’s stopped before there’s blood on the streets.

    This.

    As Jefferson says, if you make peaceful revolution impossible, you make violent revolution inevitable.
    The left have been pushing and pushing and pushing, ostracising opponents and shutting down debate, claiming anyone who disagrees with them to be beyond the pale.
    Sometimes I catch myself wanting the monster to rise, and rid us of these jackals. And I hate that I’ve started to think that way and that the left have pushed and are pushing people that way.
    Live and let live would be better, but if they’re intent on not doing that – constant accusations of racism, bigotry, etc, now moving onto physical assault with milkshakes. Not long before people start being hurt. And when the gloves come off, it won’t be pretty for either side.

    I watched Cabaret the other day, and the parallels are stark. Economic hardship (inflation, taxes, lack of decent opportunity), depraved/amoral behaviour (lgbt and tranny propaganda and indoctrination) and politicians divorced from the reality of everyday life.
    It is just right for a strong leader to rise and begin the descent from madness to truly dark times. Look how quickly it happened in Germany.
    The left want to tear down a system that worked reasonably well. They might regret that.

  46. @MBE
    Thanks for digging out those two remarkable Guardian articles. My point about giving the vote to six year olds was intended as ludicrous hyperbole, but I should have realised that it’s impossible to outdo actual leftist notions when it comes to absurdity.

    Unless Prof Runciman is a satirical creation of James Delingpole, a bit like Titania McGrath. [pause to check] No, it would appear he’s a genuine Cambridge academic. Sigh

  47. I have tried, over the years, to create satirical economic policies. And Ritchie always manages to outdo me. And no, really, he is not a satirical creation of mine.

  48. Uh-huh. But have you ever been seen at the same time in the same place as one another?

    (I don’t count outside broadcasts which are easily manipulable …)

  49. @Chris Miller

    I thought it might be one of those things where you half-remembered something you’d vaguely seen before.

    If you were just making it up then, indeed, I’m afraid some things are unspoofable. I have a feeling the phenomenon is somewhat related to Poe’s law… but the horror it is somewhat magnified when it is the head Professor of Politics at an ancient university…

  50. “Unless Prof Runciman is a satirical creation of James Delingpole, a bit like Titania McGrath. [pause to check] No, it would appear he’s a genuine Cambridge academic. Sigh”

    He does the Taking Politics podcast with Helen Thompson and occasional other guests. It’s usually quite good in analysis and Helen is very objective.

  51. Yes, BiND, much of his other stuff seems reasonable enough. (Left-wing, but then he’s a British academic, so what would you expect?) And then he comes out with this utterly barking idea, about which he insists he is completely serious.

    Titania would probably insist on children getting the vote at six months. Votes for fœtuses!

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