So, just get it over with then

Sterling could fall to its lowest level since 1985 if Britain leaves the EU without a deal, as the Bank of England warned the pound would probably fall, inflation rise and growth tumble if no agreement is reached.

Even with a deal, the economy is not out of danger. Officials slashed forecasts and warned there is a one-in-three chance of the economy recording no growth or even shrinking, as business investment is paralysed and the US-China trade war hits exports.

This means there is a rising risk of recession this year.

The biggest concern being uncertainty. Meaning that whatever it is that we do – sure, we’ve all our own desires here – we need to get it done. And now. Because continuing to shilly around without making up our minds is the very thing causing the economic constipation.

13 comments on “So, just get it over with then

  1. A one-in-three chance of no-growth or shrinkage? Isn’t that a two-in-three chance of growth? Wouldn’t that be pretty good in any short term?

    Our money collapses and it’s a disaster.

    China’s money is ‘undervalued’ and it’s an intolerable advantage to China.

  2. Bloomberg managed to run top stories of:
    1. UK faces 1/3 chance of recession – disaster, wrong policies, etc, etc
    2. EU faces 50-60% chance of recession – nothing to see here, move along

    As the former comes from a political hack and the latter from one of the senior investing side executives at a huge asset manager – I am going to put more confidence in the latter estimate too.

  3. Shouldn’t the greens be cheering this? Their only solution to the presence of humans on Gia’s body is permanent anti-growth.

  4. The last 3 years has been nothing more than a case of a child refusing to do the punishment its been given by its parents, and inventing more and more bizarre reasons why it can’t do it, yet still having it hanging over its head. Thus having blighted a far longer period than if it had taken its stripes right away, and the whole thing would have been long gone by now.

  5. For some reason the Bank of England believes food prices will rise after leaving the EU. That’s the EU with the Common Agricultural Policy, by the way. Leaving that will lead to food being more expensive. I’d like to see their workings on this one.

  6. Rob,

    Because there’s plenty of people like my MP who think the answer to struggling farmers who are supported by the EU is a return of the Corn Laws.

  7. “Because there’s plenty of people like my MP who think the answer to struggling farmers who are supported by the EU is a return of the Corn Laws.”

    The daft thing is, as the taxpayers money farmers get paid (thanks for the cheque by the way) comes from the UK exchequer anyway, there is no reason why the Uk couldn’t go on paying farmers the c. £3bn they get now in EU subsidy AND declare zero tariffs on food imports. Thus killing 2 birds with one stone – food prices drop for the masses, farmers don’t all go bust. And given we were paying for it anyway, there’s no additional cost over right now.

    So there is absolutely zero reason for food prices to rise post Brexit, unless our Lords and Masters decide they should.

  8. Rob: I’d like to see their workings on this one.

    I doubt it would make you wiser or happier, though.

    The workings probably go something like this:
    1) The UK currently applies EU rates of duty to food originating outside the EU but none to EU origin food.
    2) After leaving the EU, those rates of duty will be applied to ALL food imports.
    3) Hamsters are very nourishing and try always to focus on the first syllable.

  9. Doesn’t the actual nature of the deal decide what happens on leaving with a deal?
    How can anyone even begin to guess the effect of a deal without knowing what’s in it?

  10. Further the pound might fall to its lowest level since 1985. How was the British economy doing then? Ok as I recall. So maybe that’s a good thing.

  11. I think they all just assume a deal is like the Withdrawal Agreement and it just means a deal to leave in name only and pretend to spend another 3 years working on a comprehensive trade deal.
    So they don’t need to know what is in It, they just assume status quo if there’s a deal

  12. Sterling could fall to its lowest level since 1985 if Britain leaves the EU without a deal, as the Bank of England

    How to create a self-fulling prophecy – Carney & BoE should not be commenting on Brexit/Politics

    .
    @Jim August 2, 2019 at 10:24 am

    +1 Gloom & Doom Hamond gone, Carney needs terminated “Bringing the BoE into disrepute” should do.

  13. The way we measure inflation, a weighted basket of the stuff we actually buy with stuff not being bought getting kicked out, then in a prosperous country food will necessarily become more expensive.
    It’s just how the measuring of it works.
    Get richer, shop at Waitrose, artisan bakers, and farmers’ markets. The food expenditure component of RPI goes up as Tescos basics pasta and porridge drops out of the basket of what is calculated. The world price of food might be going sideways or downwards, the ONS don’t care.

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