Yep, uncertainty is damaging

Uncertainty about the date of leaving the European Union is more damaging than a no-deal Brexit, the new deputy chairman of the Conservative Party has said.

Not that I’d want to predict this as being true right now but it’s possible and also certain at some point. Solving the uncertainty will cause more of an economic boom than whatever the actual terms of leaving are…..

8 comments on “Yep, uncertainty is damaging

  1. It’s a trueism that the markets will quickly discount bad news but hate uncertainty. It’s always disappointed me that this hasn’t been laid at he feet of the remainers who have been creating uncertainty for three solid years.

  2. There’s an old saying used to hear on the Stock Exchange : “Üp on anticipation, down on realisation” with the reverse applying to bad news. Usually accurately predicted outcomes & indicates markets tend to over-discount. Uncertainty tends to remove the more cautious players from a market & less volume tends towards greater swings as extremes have greater influence.

  3. Quite NN. The first reports reaching Brussels were that the British were fleeing in disarray from Quatres Bras. But one observes that Waterloo Station is in London not Paris.

  4. @Roué le Jour August 9, 2019 at 7:46 am

    It’s always disappointed me that this hasn’t been laid at the feet of the remainers who have been creating uncertainty for three solid years.

    +1 Me too

    Europeans have started to change their minds on Brexit

    Boris’s focus on the backstop has shifted public opinion
    The conviction has been spreading among French people in recent days that les Britanniques have just elected Donald Trump. The papers are filled with meditations on British anxieties over lost empire, descriptions of Boris Johnson’s hair and the wildest speculations about what he might do as Prime Minister.

    The backstop is not the only problem with the withdrawal agreement, but to foreigners, it was the part that stuck out like a sore thumb. How could any country agree to that? It was more than a concession. It was a humiliation. It required Britain to surrender political control over parts of its territory in ways it could not recover — ever — unless the EU gave permission. It left Britain with less sovereignty than it had before it voted for independence.

    The moment that was admitted, the backstop could not possibly remain. The whole logic of it broke down. Now, suddenly, it was the Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar who was under pressure. Is the EU going to demand sacrifices from its member countries to push an illogical plan that only one of its tiniest countries wants? Actually, does Ireland want the backstop? Does it want to risk cutting off its second-largest export market?…

    No Deal is better than May’s deal even if backstop removed. I do worry about the msm concentration on red-herring backstop

  5. “I am an Indian and I can tell you that Brits take forever to leave.” —Deepak Saxena

    “I’m Irish and I can confirm that this is true…” —Conor Leeson

    “Well, in your case it is literally ‘forever’.” —Deepak Saxena

    “Hi…I’m Irish. The waiting is the hardest part.” —Gavin Martin

  6. One of my many pet hates is the way journalists don’t understand the specialist sense of the word “risk” as used in finance. “Oo! Help! This event is high risk!” Yes, so were Apple shares. Calm down.

    In my current job for [major bank], I can confirm that the Brexit extension, supposedly intended to make life easier by giving everyone longer to prepare, has massively increased workload, day-to-day risk, and general pain in the arse. If 31st Oct doesn’t happen, I just dread to think.

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