Umm, Rilly?

I do not trust many polls, and Opinium seems to produce much stronger Tory results than most right now.

There is one thing to note though: look at Scotland. Not a single Tory or Labour seat.

I stress, I am not convinced, but that is still a pretty staggering forecast.

Why staggering? It’s only a mild change – 1 seat each? – from the 2015 election result.

It would appear Snippa has been making deep and detailed studies of he subject he desires to comment upon, Scottish politics.

37 comments on “Umm, Rilly?

  1. Here in Scotland we have the two most marginal seats in the country, North East Fife held by the SNP against the Lib Dems by a margin of 2 votes and my own constituency of Perth and North Perthshire held by the SNP against the Tories by a margin of 21 votes.

    Certainly not difficult at all to see Perth and North Perthshire going back to the Tories at the general election, not because of any particular love of the Tories, but because of dissatisfaction with the SNP.

  2. Sp(t)u(r)d–is correct not to trust any polls.

    Still all to, play for. BoJo is talking up a fucking deal but –apart from a partial removal of the backstop–the EU will not give shit.

    The same leftist media liars from last week are this week talking about how the DUP are willing to show some “flexibility” about being under SOME EU rules–but that is from the same lying cunts working the rumour mill.

    BoJo’s “best” plan–from the POV of a BlueLabour shitehouse– would be to get some version of Treason’s Turd past his fellow House of Scum traitors–BRINO on 31st and then a GE hoping that a BRINO will remove the TBP’s sting and that enough won’t want Jizz to see the Tory scum through. A piss-poor puny plan.

  3. Ecks – I think his chances of getting the semi-mythical “deal” are skinnier than Karen Carpenter’s latte. Can’t see the EU offering one now (too much water under their imaginary bridges) and this Parliament won’t accept anything except cancelling Article 50.

    They might vote for a WA with a second referendum attached or some other such shenanigans, which is practically the same thing. The PM must realise that anything he brings before the Rump Parliament will be maliciously amended or flatly rejected, with the full connivance of Mr Squeaker.

    I’m not saying “trust Boris”, BTW, because it would be foolish to trust anyone from the Conservatives.

    But his political survival is now aligned with “no deal”, or something close enough to it. I think he’s smart enough to have worked this out.

    A reheated WA means a Labour-Lib government by Christmas and the end of Boris’ political career. A “No Deal” exit (or miraculous FTA exit) means he’ll win the next election bigly.

  4. “A reheated WA means a Labour-Lib government by Christmas and the end of Boris’ political career. A “No Deal” exit (or miraculous FTA exit) means he’ll win the next election bigly.”

    I absolutely concur Steve. But is BoJo smart enough to get that?

  5. Ecks – I *think* so.

    No way of telling what goes on in the SW1 swamp, whose slithey toves do glimpse the real world but dimly, refracted into strange phantasms by the density of their own gastric flatulence. But I think so.

    Couple of reasons to be cheerful:

    * The government hasn’t backed down on its “We’re Leaving The EU on the 31st October” ad campaign. This is an enormous PR hostage to fortune. Like Hans Gruber, I appreciate the value of hostages (in this case, Boris’ career).

    * I watched the PM’s People’s PMQ’s on Friday. He’s not backing down on the rhetorical front either. Confirmed we’re leaving on the 31st five or six times.

    Yes, it’s only words as Andy Gibb said, but the government isn’t being vague on the date. No sign of backtracking there.

    Regarding a “deal”, the only deal that’s even remotely within this government’s power to deliver by their promised date is No Deal.

    I watched a bit of Guy Verhofstadt’s Reichstag speech to the Lib Dem yesterday, ranting about the European “empire”. Doesn’t sound like someone we can do business with.

    BTW, I think BoJo is genuine about wanting a “deal”, and genuine about his previous criticism of the WA.

    But if he was deliberately going for “No Deal”, he’d be doing the exact same thing he’s doing now – making soothing noises to the EU (and butthurt Remainers still in his own party) while running down the clock. He’s surrounded by enemies, so telegraphing more of his intentions than is politically necessary would be foolish.

  6. Steve,

    “Ecks – I think his chances of getting the semi-mythical “deal” are skinnier than Karen Carpenter’s latte”

    Mother of God.

  7. Ecks

    “But is BoJo smart enough to get that?”

    I’m personally convinced, as Steve said earlier, than Cummings isn’t planning on looking to rewrite his business cards any time soon.

    What helps now is that the media / establishment are focusing elsewhere, perhaps relaxed that they look to have the upper hand?

    To me, that’s the only possibility that might work? Any very substantial enemy focus that assumes Cummings has a clear way or process through this is probably likely to be quite detrimental to any said process?

    Yes, he’s smart enough. A shit load brighter than the idiot predecessor who just released his memoirs…

  8. Steve,

    “I watched a bit of Guy Verhofstadt’s Reichstag speech to the Lib Dem yesterday, ranting about the European “empire”. Doesn’t sound like someone we can do business with.”

    Good though, wasn’t it? In case anyone is still asleep about what the EU wants, there it is. Might even lose the Lib Dems some votes when people realise what they want to do.

  9. “But if he was deliberately going for “No Deal”, he’d be doing the exact same thing he’s doing now – making soothing noises to the EU (and butthurt Remainers still in his own party) while running down the clock. He’s surrounded by enemies, so telegraphing more of his intentions than is politically necessary would be foolish.”

    This is what I’m hoping. If you’ve got something up your sleeve, and you get one shot at it, then the last thing you want is for your opponent to catch wind of it, and be prepared. Better to stagger about, acting mortally wounded, let your opponent think he has you on the ropes, until the precise moment comes. When Boris/Cummings act to enforce a 31st Oct Leave date (if they do of course), they have to do it at the very last possible moment, and give the Remainers no time to manoeuvre before the clock ticks down to zero.

    The trouble we have is that this strategy looks exactly like you’re losing and losing hard to the outside observer. So we can’t be sure if there is a grand strategy or just a complete balls/stitch up going on. They would look identical from the outside.

  10. Jim,

    I just wouldn’t bet against Cummings. Everything I’ve read and seen tells me he’s formidable compared to most of the people he’s up against.

    He’s pretty much Colonel Kurtz in Apocalypse Now, only a lot thinner. He goes against what polite people want to do, has a loyal band of followers, and achieves results.

  11. “I watched a bit of Guy Verhofstadt’s Reichstag speech to the Lib Dem yesterday, ranting about the European “empire”. Doesn’t sound like someone we can do business with.”

    I’ve just commented elsewhere that judging by my junk emails and Twatter timeline both the Conservative and Brexit parties have done well to stay quiet and let the LibDems have a clear run. Nobody can be in any doubt now that they are neither Liberal or Democratic.

    From now on every time a Tory or TBP is on a panel with a LD they should be asking them if they are such good EUers when will we be joining the Euro, giving up the rebate, removing our hard fought vetoes and joining the EU Army, for starters.

  12. As for a Boris/Cummings master plan I’m not convinced. Helen Thompson on the Talking Politics podcast made some good points about the Benn Bill. It’s an insult to the EU because the letter doesn’t say what we’ll do with the extension, something they made clear was a condition of any extent. If they are to abide by their own rules they should reject it. They won’t, they’ll find some weaselly excuse to accept it, which is in no small part why I’m a Leaver.

    Furthermore, in the unlikely event Boris delivers it or more likely talks about it at the summit he can claim in all honesty that he‘s no idea where this is going and put the EU under more pressure.

    For those looking for a grand plan here’s a scenario I haven’t heard or read, but still don’t claim ownership:

    1. Boris gets a deal that he tries to sell to Parliament. The likely roadblock are the Brexit purists but he might get enough support from those who are shit scared of no deal. If it’s rejected he’ll have the moral authority to go for no deal. In which case he refuses to send the letter as he’s fulfilled his side of the argument. Obviously this goes to court but is there’s time?

    2. Boris doesn’t get a deal and comes back and stalls Parliament for a couple of days, possibly arguing they should rescind the Benn Bill. That fails and Boris, true to his word, refuses to go to Brussels with that grubby letter in his hand, and resigns. This is a Hail Mary as he’s then hoping Parliament can’t organise a new PP before Brexit Day.

    The only thing I do know is that the Gordian Knot is getting bigger, not smaller, and nobody, including Boris and Cummings, where we’ll end up when it unravels.

  13. Who would have thought Chuka Umuna would have turned out to be a Metropolitan tosser contemptuous of democracy? It’s s complete mystery.

  14. Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay’s Interview on Sophy Ridge on Sunday

    Poor performance; his main “sell” was we’ve done “more tax and spend” – we’ve paid teachers £6,000 more each pa to deliver the same woeful results. Hey Stephen, sack all teaching assistants and make teachers teach.

    .
    Shadow Transport Secretary Andy McDonald on Labour’s Brexit policy – Sophy Ridge on Sunday

    He’s adopted the Thornberry plan – negotiate a good deal, then campaign to remain :facepalm

    Jobs, economy, working class suffer – MPs still don’t get it, despite Project Fear working class voted Leave

  15. MPs still don’t get it, despite Project Fear working class voted Leave

    They still won’t “Get it” until they are ousted at the ballot box, even then they will be in denial, but the denial of an ex-MP is infinitely more impotent than the denial of a traitor in power.

    This is the real reason why they are evading a General Election. Too many of them will get the chop. Most of them Remoaners.

    The Lib Dems voting against the people today in their “Vote to Repudiate BRExit” was to be expected, but it is staggering that these people imagine they can wander around the country during a future General Election campaign and not get “feedback” from the electorate about that.

    Makes me wonder quite how large the Islington bubble is…

  16. Mr Galt–My guesstimate is 3 to 5 million full-on , hard-core traitorcunt EU-dicksucking remainic shitehouse clerks.

    The whisper seems to be that the House of Traitor-scum really do think that they are going to go for Article 50 revoke once their arses are back in on 14th Oct.

    If Johnson is as pathetically weak as BiND and resigns like a wanker then the streets are what is left.. BiND IS a weakling tho’. BoJo must know that a CCA State of Emergency and the temp closure of the House of Scum will be entirely acceptable to the majority followed by declaring a GE.

    Yes –all the cockrot is in the CCA about Judge’s review and Parliament review. But those assume that Parli isn’t the problem. A SOE declared against Parli traitors would need to be run differently. And could be as the Act has near unltd powers. It should never have been put on the books and should be repealed AFTER the House has had all the shit hosed out.

  17. Home Secretary Priti Patel says the “anti-democratic backstop” must go

    Rest of May’s EU Surrender Treaty – UK an EU Colony / Vassal State – OK for you now after you voted against three times?

    .
    A good trade and financial reason for not being in the EU:

    “Trump poised to hit EU with billions in tariffs after victory in Airbus case
    WTO ruling sets stage for early confrontation between US and new leaders in Brussels.”
    https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-poised-to-hit-eu-with-billions-in-tariffs-after-airbus-win/

  18. I fear you are being too polite Mr. Ecks.

    I don’t trust BoJo, but I am hopeful that he realises that his balls are on the line and that his employment (and indeed continued employment) of Dominic Cummings bodes well.

    When the chips are down, having a determined and devious bastard like Cummings (my ex-boss at Vote Leave) to both carry out the necessary and take the blame from the Remoaners is just what the doctor ordered.

    As long as the enemy at home and abroad is in confusion I think we’re in with a good chance. Use of measures such as the CCA might be appropriate in this circumstance (which shows the danger of such things), but I doubt that BoJo will have the balls to deploy it.

    I’m more expecting some machinations over the puppet Prime Minister’s letter. To be quite frank I don’t care what BoJo and Cummings do as long as it works and we’re out with on WTO terms on 31st October 2019.

    Anything else will be a loss.

  19. Warning (Not watched) – May cause anger and broken screens

    Live Stream: Sixth Annual Bingham Lecture (6pm, 12 September 2019) – 1hr 38m
    ‘Process of Discovery: What Brexit has taught us (so far) about Parliament, Politics and the UK Constitution’.
    Delivered by: The Rt [Dis]Hon John Bercow MP, Speaker of the House of Commons.

  20. It seems to me that Boris will be happy to get May’s WA minus Backstop accepted by the EU and then through Parliament with the aid of ‘soft Remain’. If Priti Patel is focusing on the backstop, that seems to indicate it is OK for her too.

    Then he’d hope to win a GE without a TBP pact, believing simply resolving the issue will be enough for enough most voters. And that a soft Brexit will bring some Tories back from the Lib Dems.

    Don’t get me wrong, this would be a terrible outcome, because after a term under May’s vassalage agreement, I can see both Labour and the LibDems campaigning to re-enter the EU and winning.

    I don’t know much about Cummings, but it seems to me that he dislikes the hard Brexit crowd as much or more than he dislikes the Remainers. I also suspect he’s more keen to have a full term shaking up the civil service than delivering a clean break from the EU.

  21. I don’t know much about Cummings, but it seems to me that he dislikes the hard Brexit crowd as much or more than he dislikes the Remainers. I also suspect he’s more keen to have a full term shaking up the civil service than delivering a clean break from the EU.

    Cummings reasons for wanting out of the EU are admittedly shared by few, because he believes it is essential to leave the EU before the civil service can be radically overhauled (especially the Department of Education), followed by massive changes across the education sector as a whole.

    As far as Cummings is concerned, leaving the EU is just the start of a whole swathe of changes necessary across the civil service, education and wider society. How much he expects to actually achieve before being booted out is unknown. My guess would be “As much as can be done”.

    The fact that Michael Gove, famously described him as a “career psychopath”, despite having never met him during his time under Gove speaks volumes.

    At times like these, a career psychopath is probably just what the doctor ordered.

  22. As far as Cummings is concerned, leaving the EU is just the start of a whole swathe of changes necessary across the civil service, education and wider society.

    I’d agree with him on that but I don’t think BrINO will be the springboard he needs. I recently listened to a talk he gave a few years ago and he has interesting ideas but would face huge opposition to them. He might be best advised to pick one department in which to implement his ideas and demonstrate success rather than fighting the civil service on a dozen fronts.

  23. Tee, Hee

    Queen ‘strictly bans’ mentions of Meghan Markle after her dramatic snub

    HM EIIR Should make Harry Governor of South Georgia, the two loons & child then posted there – with no others – to live a woke green vegan life

    Good night & God Bless

  24. The stupid cunt Patel running her gob off about Treason May’s turd pie minus the back stop is not a good omen.

    But as Steve says the HoT shite want Brexit gone–so the BRINO is unlikely to get through. If it doesn’t then No Deal would be all that is left for BoJo.

  25. Re: Nonce Hitler’s speech to the LibDems – he seems to believe that he’s won already and feel no concern about blatantly demonstrating the EU’s bad faith.

    If he thinks he’s won because he believes Parliament is working towards revoking Article 50, then it’s all good. No deal will be Boris’s only option, but only if his enemies force it on him.

    I still fear the BrINO fix is in.

  26. @Pcar

    Live Stream: Sixth Annual Bingham Lecture (6pm, 12 September 2019) – 1hr 38m
    ‘Process of Discovery: What Brexit has taught us (so far) about Parliament, Politics and the UK Constitution’.
    Delivered by: The Rt [Dis]Hon John Bercow MP, Speaker of the House of Commons.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMv69cNgUes

    FTFY 🙂

    PS Not watched Poison Toad’s speeeccchhh rant

  27. There’s no such person as Meghan Markle. There’s a person who *used* *to* *be* Meghan Markle, but that person is no longer called Meghan Markle, they are now Meghan, Duchess of Sussex. If they wanted to remain Meghan Markle they shouldn’t’ve married a Royal.

  28. “There’s a person who *used* *to* *be* Meghan Markle”

    It appears there is also a person who used to be Prince Harry.

  29. One thing concerning me is that the almost touching faith that many appear to have in the political “genius” of Dom Cummings is based heavily upon the fact that he was the head of the “official” leave campaign. However, IIRC it was considered by many at the time that the “unbiassed” Electoral Commission selected it because it appeared to be the weakest of the options available.

  30. @Baron Jackfield – Having actually worked for Dominic Cummings, he’s a bit eratic to say the least and I don’t agree with his justification for doing BRExit (but who cares as long as it’s done).

    What is true though is that he is driven, goal-oriented, obsessive and fully aware of all the points the plan could be derailed and how to avoid / evade blocks and barriers.

    His approach to planning and risk management is very proactive (based upon the OODA Loop approach) and he’s pretty good at what he does.

  31. @jgh September 16, 2019 at 3:39 am

    Meghan Markle has refused to be Meghan Windsor.

    Why? It’s all in her plan to make money, status and then bugger of back to LA and call herself Princess Meghan – she wasn’t happy when told marrying Prince Harry did not make her Princess.

    She’s a scheming gold digger who cares only about herself. Sooner she’s gone the better

    On a personal note: consider how upset, rejected and angry Harry’s grand parents felt when he didn’t stay with them for a few days, then his questionable excuse revealed as a lie

    .
    @samuelbuca September 16, 2019 at 7:52 am

    +1

    .
    @Evident

    Thanks for fix

    .
    @John Galt September 16, 2019 at 3:31 pm

    Thanks for info

  32. @JG…

    Thanks for the “insider information” 🙂

    Believe me, I’m keeping my fingers firmly crossed that he knows what he’s doing!!

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