No Phil, this isn’t the argument

Whatever the outcome of the negotiations going on at the moment between No 10 and the EU, Brexiters will say that all the uncertainty was worth it, especially when a recession fails to appear.

No:

This view has become entrenched, even though the latest analysis from the Institute for Fiscal Studies shows that the post-referendum analysis by the Treasury has come to pass. That is, the UK economy has seen more downs than ups and is now 2% to 3% smaller than it would have been if the vote had never happened.

The trajectory of GDP growth from March 2016 was calculated by the Office for Budget Responsibility and showed the UK being between £40bn and £60bn bigger than it is now. That is a huge loss of income to businesses and households that would have generated significant tax receipts.

Let’s accept that for the sake of argument.

Worse are the cuts made by businesses that will deny Britain a strong recovery whenever the fog of Brexit uncertainty ends. Business investment in new plant, machinery and technology has grown 0.4% since 2016. That is barely more than 0.1% a year. Contrast that growth rate with 2015, when business investment increased by 6.5% and in 2014 when it jumped 7.3%.

Equally so.

The argument is not that the uncertainty was worth it. Rather, that sure, Brexit itself will cause some dislocation in the economy. And, for those reasons of democracy, freedom, liberty, being free of the damn Krauts, it will be worth it.

Mebbe.

The uncertainty isn’t worth it at all. And we could solve – could have solved – the uncertainty by getting on with it, taking the hit of the dislocation and thus proceeding.

Brexit is worth it, the uncertainty imposed by Remoaners in refusing to enact the will of the people isn’t.

7 comments on “No Phil, this isn’t the argument

  1. Migrant labour has saved Britain from a post-referendum recession

    If we cram in enough foreign car washers, Turkish barbers and Beeg Eeshu vendors, we’ll be as rich as Nazis!

  2. Any comparison between what is and what might have been is unreliable.
    When what might have been is calculated by persons favouring another path, persons who accepted forecasts that have proved monumentally wrong, then the comparison is without meaning.

  3. ‘Brexit is worth it, the uncertainty imposed by Remoaners in refusing to enact the will of the people isn’t.’

    So true, Tim. Gripers complaining about the problems THEY caused.

  4. ‘… even though the latest analysis from the Institute for Fiscal Studies shows that the post-referendum analysis by the Treasury has come to pass. That is, the UK economy has seen more downs than ups and is now 2% to 3% smaller than it would have been if the vote had never happened.’

    This is begging the question… making a claim and supporting it with a premise that assumes beforehand the claim is true. The premise being that with a non-Brexit vote the UK economy would be 2% to 3% – value X – higher than with a Brexit vote.

    The claim is, X is 2% to 3% lower therefore since this meets the premise, the claim must be true, but the premise assumed that to start with. Circular reasoning.

    And it cannot be proven that X is true, since it was a prediction (aka a guess) by The Treasury with a very poor record of predicting.

  5. The uncertainty isn’t worth it at all. And we could solve – could have solved – the uncertainty by getting on with it, taking the hit of the dislocation and thus proceeding.

    Brexit is worth it, the uncertainty imposed by Remoaners in refusing to enact the will of the people isn’t.

    Yep. Yet remoaners like Hammond have been telling us for years they’re preventing uncertainty and damage to economy (every Labour MP on QT says it); May’s Surrender Treaty would have entailed years of more argument and uncertainty.

    Oh look, he ignores their “there will be an immediate recession, tax rises and a million jobs lost….” statements

    .
    Looking like Johnson’s proposal is dead – following EU/Merkel’s NI statements DUP want No Deal and out as it’s clear EU want NI to be part of RoI

    .
    Weekend Sing Along

    ‘We Will Survive’ – Brexit
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HljudR3Evyo

    EU BREXIT Song
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWGaDN1N0Yg

  6. “Yes, they put pressure on housing supply and primary schools once they get around to having children, but study after study has shown the UK is a net gainer from migration, even the uncontrolled version courtesy of EU membership.”

    Study after study? Like Migration Watch’s study that points out the flaws in the government data?

    https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/7/contribution-of-immigration-to-gdp

    Here’s my opinion: we shouldn’t import baristas. Baristas are crappy jobs, generally on the way to a better job. People from the UK who never progress past being baristas are probably a drain on society (but they’re British, so we take care of them). Importing people at that level probably just means a massive benefit cost.

    You know what we don’t get many of from the EU? Skilled immigrants. Polish programmers are working in Krakow, Danes in Odense. In 20 years I’ve worked with 1 Czech and 1 French programmer in an office in the UK. Indians? I’ve worked with more Indians than you’d need for a Bollywood song and dance scene.

  7. I’ve never understood how the left can bang on about the “cost of Brexit” while failing to acknowledge the cost of a lefty government…

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