A question we can answer

Why is it so hard for economists to get their forecasts right?

Because economies are complicated things. The interactions of 7 billion people simply are tough to predict.

And, obviously, if you can’t predict an economy then it’s not possible to plan one either…..

5 comments on “A question we can answer

  1. “I believe that economists put decimal points in their forecasts to show they have a sense of humor.”
    – William Gilmore Simms

  2. Why is it so hard for economists to get their forecasts right?

    The vast majority of economists are either academics or corporate administrative staff. They have absolutely no experience in business in any meaningful way. And invariably, they are shocked that they cannot understand business well enough to successfully model it. It isn’t just that economists cannot forecast for large economies, they can’t even forecast for industries. Why? They know all sorts of things about economies and nothing about businesses.

    I think of an economist trying to forecast in this way: He’s someone trying to do surgery without going to medical school, let alone going through a surgical residence. He may have read all the necessary text books, but the death of his patients would really only be a surprise to himself.

  3. ‘ Why is it so hard for economists to get their forecasts right?’

    Because they are not climatologists.

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