Not so much

With a month to go before polling day, Nigel Farage’s promise not to compete with Conservative Party candidates on December 12 just made victory for Jeremy Corbyn a whole lot tougher.

That’s not the offer, is it? To not stand in Tory held seats, plus a few more I think?

As to the wisdom of it, dunno.

35 comments on “Not so much

  1. off topic but I see ‘Clive the accountant’ took Spud to task for claiming to have invented CBCR when there were CBCR initiatives as far back as 1973 (and others in 1977 and 1980). Spud’s response?

    “If you had read those proposals you would know that they are not in the form that CBCR took from 2003 onwards…

    I was also, like everyone else, wholly unaware of them”

    So he was wholly unaware of them but knows they were different. He also knows everyone else was wholly unaware of them…..

    He also claims that “And you would also know that they had been well and truly forgotten by 2003″

    And yet International Accounting Standard 14 (segmental accounting reporting – conceptually the same as CBCR) was not withdrawn until 2006 (and replaced by the tighter IFRS8).

    So Spud the accountant is claiming he was ‘wholly unaware” of an International Accounting Standard that was still in force in 2003 when he published his first CBCR paper.

    I hope Clive points this out…….

  2. I don’t get what Mr Farage’s game is now. He won’t compete with the Tories where they already have seats, but he WILL compete with them where they are trying to win more.

    It’s either going to be a Tory government or a Labour-led one. The choice is realistically that stark. Which one do you want, Nigel?

  3. The establishment seem pretty scared of Nigel; they’re still attacking him after he gave ground. For all their negative bluster, he got something out of them for that so he should hold out for more.

    He should be calling for the Tories to stand down in many Labour seats so as to not split the leave vote. It goes both ways.

  4. The Tories only have to hold what they have and gain 9 new seats to win. Likely other local arrangements will be being brokered as we speak.

    It helps–doesn’t make certain but it helps.

    Since the only prob alternative to the deal is remain then it is welcome.

  5. The smaller the majority the more likely that a few troublesome shits could hold the govt to ransom at key moments. The very last thing we need is another indecisive Parliament.

    If Mr F won’t play to win he should clear the field.

  6. “just made victory for Jeremy Corbyn a whole lot tougher.” Why is this tit writing in subAmerican? Or is it actual American: is he a Yank?

  7. There’s at least one Brexit Party candidate that has stood down in this region and a lot more of them are coming under pressure. The DM appears to be organising a campaign to get some more to stand down. There’ll be a lot more pressure as the election looms.

    This would be a moment worth staying up for on election night (and saving a glass of champagne or 2):

    WHITE Van Man snob and Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry is on course to lose her seat, a private Labour party poll has revealed.

    Thornberry is trailing behind the Lib Dems in her north London seat of Islington South and Finsbury.

    Emily Thornberry is on course to lose her seat, private Labour party polling shows

    A senior Labour source said local internal polling conducted by the party found that Mr Corbyn’s chaotic Brexit policy has led the constituency’s voters to switch to the Lib Dems due to their unequivocal pledge to reverse the 2016 referendum result.

    The insider said her constituency is now listed as one of the ‘at-risk’ seats in London.

  8. Here’s my guess,if he gets a majority Boris will enoble Nigel and the ones that didn’t stand against conservatives. They will then have a parliamentary platform, albeit from the Lords.

  9. “He won’t compete with the Tories where they already have seats, but he WILL compete with them where they are trying to win more.”
    The maths will be that splitting off 10% of a Conservative majority might be dangerous, but splitting off 20% of a Labour majority in a leave area might be beneficial. If only you knew the exact percentages to apply to leave and remain areas you would know exactly where to stand.
    But no-one has a clue what the percentages might be.

  10. Here’s my guess,if he gets a majority Boris will enoble Nigel

    Should be at least a Dukedom. After all, John Churchill only defeated the frogs for his; when Brexit is finally done, Nigel will have taken on and defeated the British establishment as well as the european.

  11. I suspect that there are a fair number of Tory-held seats where the margin is small enough to be eroded by disaffected Leavers not wanting to vote Tory even if they aren’t left with a Brexit Party option.
    I am sure I am not alone in being angry that, yet again, my vote is being taken for granted. Just because my preferred option is being removed it doesn’t mean it can be casually handed over to another, far less desirable party.

  12. Geoffers

    “Which one do you want, Nigel?”

    The way that I see it is that Boris has something that Nigel wants. Unfortunately, for Boris, Nigel also has something that Boris wants. If that was business, there would be a negotiation of sorts (#).

    “If Mr F won’t play to win he should clear the field.”

    Boris agrees….

    (# – and maybe that is what is actually taking place, we’ll see, we’re not done on this yet.)

  13. JS

    “yet again, my vote is being taken for granted.”

    Spot on. This might have worked out a whole lot better (for those inclining towards TBP) if Boris had been more open to Nigel from the start (it would have been a negotiation, Nigel accepted that right at the start).

    Boris presumably judged that the immediate advantage from a large chunk of TBP voters more happily switching early on wasn’t enough to compensate for losses elsewhere. Hence, the dirty tricks campaign to pressure TBP. You are absolutely right, the votes themselves are not “for hire”.

  14. Logically TBP should stand in Tory seats with both majorities, particularly if the candidate has been pro Remain, and not stand in Labour-held marginals (except that in some cases TBP might help the Tories by giving left-wing leaver never-Tories an alternative outlet to Labour – but my guess is this mostly applies in very pro Leave seats where Labour has a larger and tribal majority, since this means TBP’s impact by attracting Labour voters will be proportionately bigger compared to its diversion of Tory votes, on account of fishing in a bigger pond for them, creating a slim chance of a split vote the Tories might come through the middle in).

  15. I am not happy about this. A few Conservative remainer may ave been purged but what chance that that newly elected Conservatives will be strong on Brexit? A small but workable Conservative majority, feet held to the fire by the potential votes ‘lost’ to TBP would be a better outcome. I just don’t trust Conservatives in name only to deliver any better than BRINO.
    2017, for the first time ever I spoiled my ballot: safe conservative seat, LDs a distant second, no UKIP candidate. It looks like this will be another spoiled ballot.

  16. “The smaller the majority the more likely that a few troublesome shits could hold the govt to ransom at key moments. The very last thing we need is another indecisive Parliament.”

    Tactically, Farage needs a Tory minority government with BP MPs in sufficient numbers to have the balance of power. Then he can really hold the Tories’ feet to the fire. A large or even any Tory majority is not optimum for a clean Brexit

  17. Geoffers: “It’s either going to be a Tory government or a Labour-led one. The choice is realistically that stark. Which one do you want, Nigel?”

    A minority Tory government dependent on Brexit Party support.

  18. Before he arrives…Sorry Theo but fuck you & the horse you rode in on. You’re still as much an enemy as the rest of the Remainers

  19. BiS & CJ

    Agreed – if only.

    Contrary to 108 promises (Theresa May style), there were no police reports from ditches in the Uxbridge area in the early hours of 1st November; we know Boris can’t genuinely be trusted without being locked down full nelson style with his face in the mud…

  20. @BiND
    Hillary Rodham Clinton spells her name with two Ls, otherwise she’d be a bloke* like Hilary Benn.

    * She may well identify as a bloke these days, septics aren’t very good at these nuances. And gawd alone knows what Benn identifies as.

    (Some of my in-laws are Rodhams from the NE of England, I wonder if they’re related?)

  21. @CJ Nerd
    Then Mr Farage is playing a very dangerous game… imagine having a few TBP MPs and absolutely no influence over a Corbyn-led government.

    If it’s as you say then it’s an all-or-nothing play. Fuck that.

  22. @BiND
    Hillary Rodham Clinton spells her name with two Ls, otherwise she’d be a bloke* like Hilary Benn.

    I stand corrected.

  23. On LBC someone said to Tom Swarbrick yesterday and wasn’t challenged that Farage was offered a bowler hat on Friday.

  24. Or is Boris playing a very dangerous game..;)

    Exactly. Strategically, Boris is making the same play as May – cynically use Brexit to win a general election. He’s using different (more sensible) tactics but the play is the same. If he gets a big majority he’s sat safe for five years and has no incentive to deliver anything but BRINO. Once *something* called Brexit is delivered the game is over. Apart from diehards the people will be done with it.

    If Boris actually gave a shit about Brexit he’d accept that this is, or should be, a Brexit election and make a pact so that “northern” Labour seats can winningly vote leave – via The Brexit Party. Many of those seats just won’t go Tory but Boris wants it all and is deluded enough to think he can get it. It’ll be him splitting the leave vote there, not Nigel.

  25. PJF

    Agree with most.

    “and make a pact so that “northern” Labour seats can winningly vote leave – via The Brexit Party.”

    The problem is that Boris has crapped in that tent already, with his “shit or bust” strategy. TBP poll numbers are down from the levels where that could have been an excellent “combined” strategy; ie, Boris is gambling on doing this without TBP. Hence, Farage may need – rather than seats – other forms of (blood) commitment from Boris, if he’s conceding further?

    Let’s hope that this is all just a game and there is a lot more going in the background. The establishment media and all else look to be doubling down, now telling Farage to back off elsewhere else as well. In “ordering” TBP to stand down, I’m struggling to see that all so necessary reconciliation taking place, which might genuinely have helped inspire most of those Con and TBP voters towards a unified position that should win this with ease?

    And, if Boris does now fail, he can’t really blame Farage or anyone else. Farage did offer, right back at the start, and in the same breath said he was willing to compromise. It was a straightforward “over to you, Boris”. It has been in Boris’s court throughout. Maybe Boris has a plan – yes, I know, we said that last time….

  26. Gents, I submit that the issue at hand, despite what might have been or should have been, is actually a lot simpler than folks suppose…

    Either Boris or Jeremy will be PM at Christmas. The choice is binary, so which one do you want?

    And is the risk of your non-choice winning worth the possible benefits that might be gained by Farage dicking about at the margins?

    I don’t think so. True Brexit is lost, but I do trust Boris to deliver something that I could hold my nose and accept.

  27. A reminder:

    Dear Brexiteer,

    Today in Hartlepool, I made clear The Brexit Party’s strategy for the General Election. I always said that I would put country before party – and I meant it.

    We want to stop the Remainers winning enough seats to introduce a second referendum, offering us a false choice between Remain and Remain. That’s why we are not going to contest the 317 seats that the Conservatives won in 2017. For months…

    @Geoffers November 12, 2019 at 9:59 am

    +1 on Confused

    .
    @PJF

    Farage is calling for the Tories to stand down in many Labour seats so as to not split the leave vote; Johnson says no
    .

    @Geoffers November 12, 2019 at 10:24 am

    The smaller the majority the more likely that a few troublesome shits could hold the govt to ransom at key moments. The very last thing we need is another indecisive Parliament.

    Which is why I didn’t want May to win with large majority in 2017 – she’d have revoked Art 50

    I want Johnson to be dependent on DUP and hopefully TBP MPs

  28. @BiND November 12, 2019 at 10:34 am

    Cheers

    .
    @djc November 12, 2019 at 2:37 pm

    I quoted an article a few days ago reporting CCHQ were parachuting Remainers into “stood down” seats. That adds to the Con Remainers (eg Maria Miller) standing again.

    .
    @PJF November 12, 2019 at 7:08 pm

    +1 on Johnson & Brino

    Barnier says Non to Johnson’s “No extension to transition after 31 Dec 2020”

    .

    Earlier today Lib Dem stood down in Canterbury (?) to ensure Remain Labour chap re-elected. Circa 20:00 Limps parachute in a new candidate

  29. would an official pact with Boris could undermine TBP vote in the northern leaver seats as it would make it hard for the tribal labour voters to switch, not to say they couldn’t do something behind the scenes.
    Also I find the idea of Plaid standing down candidates to be stupid as it upsets their local supporters and could have a knock in effect for the assembly vote that is much more important to them. Same with Lib Dems constituency party not going to like being sidelined and sends a message you expect to never win there

  30. Chris Miller,

    Her grandfather emigrated to the States from Stanley, County Durham. Supposedly he lived in a house behind the Ox Inn at Oxhill

    Simon

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