Will Johnson Snatch Defeat From The Jaws Of Victory?

Boris Johnson is not Theresa May. Boris Johnson is not even nearly Theresa May. For the majority of May’s rudderless two years in power, there was a constant perception that the majority of her party were publicly supporting her while sharpening their knives in private. She lacked confidence, leadership, charm, and charisma. Aside from the fact that they’ve held identical jobs, one imagines that Johnson and May have very little in common at all.

Because of that, Johnson’s decision to call a snap election shouldn’t be compared to May’s disastrous 2017 mistake. That was a vanity project. May was seduced by a few favorable looking polls, and decided to call an election to boost a majority she already had in order to get her vision of Brexit through Parliament. We won’t dwell on what happened next; suffice to say that her party lost their majority, and have never had a majority at any point since. Johnson has called an election because Parliament is paralysed, and the current situation is untenable. He’s taken the same action as his predecessor in terms of calling an election long before on is due, but for very different reasons.

Now we’ve stated the obvious by pointing out that Johnson is a different kind of leader to May (and, for most people, a vastly preferable one), we should point out something else. There is no way in the world that the Conservative Party should lose this election. They have a seemingly insurmountable lead in the polls. They’re up against the most unpopular Labour leader in living memory. The Liberal Democrats – in the unlikely event they were ever likely to become a factor anyway – have surely condemned themselves to electoral disaster by pledging to withdraw Article 50 if elected.

Unfortunately, this is the Tories we’re talking about, and if any party ever knew how to shoot itself in the foot, it’s the Tory Party. You occasionally feel like they could walk away from a mobile slots casino having made a loss, even if they owned the mobile slots casino, and every penny spent on every single one of the games went back into their pockets. Despite that, we appear to be sleepwalking into a situation where a loss is becoming more possible with each passing day. Put it this way – if we did have a pound to spend in our metaphorical casino, we’d be spending it on Rose Slots website instead of backing the party to win the election. We’d get better odds.

May’s election strategy in 2017 was so bad that it occasionally seemed like she was trying to lose on purpose, with the so-called ‘dementia tax’ being a particular lowlight. We expected better from Johnson, but we’re already seeing some worrying lapses in judgment, and a failure to appreciate the social and political mood of the country. Chief among the failing we’ve seen to date is his failure to strike a deal with Nigel Farage and his Brexit Party.

We’re not saying that a No Deal Brexit is necessarily the best way to go about departing from the EU. Johnson’s negotiated deal has the backing of his party – and is likely to have the backing of Parliament – and therefore should be given a chance to proceed. All he had to do to get Farage’s blessing was keep No Deal on the table. Farage offered him an orange branch. Johnson singularly failed to take it.

The Brexit Party aren’t going to win the election, or even come close. It might even turn out to be the case that the Brexit Party won’t even win a single seat, regardless of how much money is plowed into their campaign. That doesn’t matter. What does matter is that in every single constituency, there will be a proportion of voters who opt to back the Brexit Party. The majority of those voters are likely to be disillusioned former Conservative voters. Every time that happens, it weakens the Tory share of the vote. In doing so, it lowers the bar required for Labour to sneak in and win.

The second failure is one of speed and principle. The moment it became apparent that Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns had lied about his level of knowledge regarding the sabotage of a rape trial by one of his aides, Johnson should have fired him immediately. He didn’t. Cairns was permitted to hang around for a few painful days, and then resign of his own accord. That was always going to be the end result, and Johnson would have been perceived as a strong leader for dismissing him. As he didn’t, the resulting media storm had a negative impact on the launch of the Conservative Party’s election campaign.

If we can agree that failing to sack Cairns was a lapse of judgment, perhaps we can agree on something else, too. Nick Conrad should never have been selected as the candidate for Broadland in Norfolk. He’s now withdrawn his candidacy, but the fact that he was ever selected at all is mystifying. This is a man who said, during a live radio broadcast, that women should ‘keep their knickers on’ if they want to avoid being raped, among various other comments suggesting women were partially responsible for rape. The fact that he’s apologised profusely for those comments is immaterial. They were made only five years ago. This wasn’t ancient history, and a candidate so toxic shouldn’t have been anywhere near candidacy. Taking the Cairns incident and the Conrad incident together, it’s almost as if someone at Tory campaign HQ has forgotten that women read and watch the news, and also vote. Alienating half of the electorate is not a winning strategy.

At the time of writing, the average poll lead that the Conservatives have over Labour is narrowing. That would probably have happened at some point during campaign season anyway, but it’s hard to avoid the feeling that the party is currently inflicting wounds upon itself. This is still Boris Johnson’s election to lose, but he’ll want to avoid a repeat of the poor performance of the past seven days if he’s to be sure of winning it.

59 comments on “Will Johnson Snatch Defeat From The Jaws Of Victory?

  1. ‘ Will Johnson Snatch Defeat From The Jaws Of Victory?’

    Paging Mr Betteridge, please call your office.

  2. To put in septic terms, what you need is a Ronald Reagan or Donald Trump. What you have is a combination of George W. Bush and Mitt Romney.

    What we’ve learned about Boris over the past month or so is that he has the backbone of a chocolate eclair… He’s a slightly more competent version of T. May, and nothing more.

  3. “What does matter is that in every single constituency, there will be a proportion of voters who opt to back the Brexit Party. The majority of those voters are likely to be disillusioned former Conservative voters”

    I disagree. in 2015 UKIP attracted a significant vote, and when May went to the polls in 2017 everyone assumed those ‘former Tory’ voters would return to the fold and give her a bigger majority. What actually happened was many then voted Labour, not Tory, demonstrating that they came from the Left in the first place. In my own constituency the UKIP vote was over 8k in 2015 and dropped to 1.5k in 2017. The Tory vote in 2017 rose by about 3k, but Labour vote rose by considerably more. I concluded that the UKIP voters were probably about 50/50 ex-Lab/Con rather than predominantly Tory as usually assumed.

    Thus in this election I suspect that where TBP party stands they will take as many disaffected Labour Brexit voters as Tory ones. And on the election as a whole my feeling is the reverse of the 2017 one when everyone though that May was on for a big win and everyone was wrong, now everyone thinks Boris is up against it, and I think they’re all wrong again, and he’ll get a decent majority.

  4. “Farage offered him an orange branch”: peels of merry laughter, blossom. Are you taking the pith?

    Pip, pip,

    dearieme.

  5. Farrage offered him an orange branch.

    Run out of olives ? I thought the supposed point of No Deal was to threaten the EU with shooting ourselves in the face would get slightly messy shoes with all the blood and what not . it was always a tragic plan but now we have the shit deal that was available to T May the whole time whats the point ?
    Revoking article 50 is popular what is squeezing the Lib Dems is a Two party system when loathing of the Opposition trumps considerable dislike of the Party getting the support.
    Who are remain Conservatives supposed to vote for ? Are Brexit Labour people really going to be forced to vote for an Etonian Trump fan boy- this is a joke of an election
    All of which makes me think that the result may be less important than the numbers . It would be much easier to undo the Brexit damage than m,any people think , we could easily rejoin in all but name and the signs are that the country is moving that way.
    10 years from now this could all look very different and the fact there was never a mandate will be important

  6. Dear Mr Worstall

    Yes.

    It’s his job to do that.

    He is in the government, the government is at war with the people, the government has always been at war with the people.

    Next.

    DP

  7. Unfortunately, this is the Tories we’re talking about, and if any party ever knew how to shoot itself in the foot, it’s the Tory Party. You occasionally feel like they could walk away from a mobile slots casino having made a loss, even if they owned the mobile slots casino, and every penny spent on every single one of the games went back into their pockets. Despite that, we appear to be sleepwalking into a situation where a loss is becoming more possible with each passing day. Put it this way – if we did have a pound to spend in our metaphorical casino, we’d be spending it on XXXXX

    Another of your product placements, at this point I stopped reading

  8. Sajid David cracked a line about ecofreakery at the Conservative Party conference, expecting a roar of applause, and got a total silent response.
    Boris the Brino (the one with the horn) learned nothing from this, and today is spouting green nonsense.
    Oh yes, they can alienate everyone.
    We will probably do a Spain and elect another hung parliament.

  9. Dunno djc. The link here produces “Not available in your country”

    As for Cairns. All we seem to have is a second hand assurance that a third party – a witness at a trial – “is confident no action will be taken by the court.” Since the judge seems to have made a no reporting order during the collapse of the first trial, is there any reason to believe Cairns knew anything about the matter other than there’d been some problem, unspecified?*
    Sorry, but the Tory party has form on throwing people under the bus for no other reason but avoiding bad publicity.

    *Can’t seem to find any reports of the trial, but I wouldn’t mind knowing what question the witness was asked & what reply caused all the fuss. That the judge threw his toys out the pram over it is meaningless. There’s been far too many members of that profession interpreting law to mean whatever they want it to, of late.

  10. No-one can ‘elect’ a hung parliament, though that may well be the outcome – there’s no box where you can put your cross asking for that result. A hung parliament is the result of roughly equal numbers voting for the two leading parties and/or an unusually large number voting for minor parties. It may well be that some of those taking the latter course do so in the hope that there will be a hung parliament (though why they should desire such an outcome is beyond my understanding).

    The best thing about FPTP is that it maximises the likelihood of a majority government, as opposed to most PR systems that make some sort of hung parliament virtually certain.

  11. @BiS

    Something about the witnesses being instructed not to talk about the accusers sexual history and then the witness announcing that he’d shagged her. The judge accused the witness of deliberately sabotaging the trial and declared a mistrial. The accused was convicted at the retrial.

    But Cairns wasn’t the witness, it was one of his aides. Cairns had nothing to do with the trial at all but the allegation centered around whether he knew what the witness was planning. He denied it but there’s an email in which the aide said he was confident that the accused wouldn’t be convicted.

    All seems a bit vague.

  12. Fun fact: the accused usually is convicted at the retrial*.

    * by that stage, having already cross-examined him once, prosecution counsel’s got his number and knows which buttons to push.

  13. Btw, when, in anywhere between six weeks’ time and three years’ time, a Tory government is still ramming down our throats tax-and-spend, micro-surveillance statism, eco-loonery, open borders murderousness, and every other fashionable boutique obsession, and we have one of those periodic throat-clearings in which idiots in their fourth decade and more suddenly declare they were duped – duped! – by the Tories, but never again will they hold their noses no matter what, then …

    … gits like me will remind the idiots of their idiocy.

    And it’ll make no difference. Because they’ll do it again, and a younger generation will come along to reinforce them.

    The expertise, experience, knowledge, insight and intellectual wattage of the commentariat assembled here is genuinely impressive. Save for this one lacuna.

    # hold the Tories’ toes to the fire
    @ the future Duke of Brussels has been duffed up
    c/o the Boiler Room, Lud Towers

  14. There’s a bit more detail on what was said in court here

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7635189/Tory-election-candidate-Ross-England-suspended-party.html

    Allegedly he “just blurted out” that the alleged victim of the rape had allegedly taken part in alleged group sex. The alleged judge was allegedly not happy about this alleged declaration at that point as it was allegedly inadmissible.
    (is that enough allegedlys Mr Lud? I don’t want to get sued for libel…)

  15. Dear Mr Worstall

    As far as I can determine the Conservatives have been trying to lose elections since 2010.

    Then that nice Mr Cameron’s least worst result was a coalition with the iLibUndems.

    Worst – Labour win

    Less worse – Conservative win

    Least worse – Conservative coalition

    A little bit worser still – Labour coalition

    In 2015 that nice Mr Cameron promised a referendum on the EU because he did not expect to win.

    When he won, that nice Mr Cameron ran away.

    That nice Mrs May did not expect to win ‘her’ election. Unfortunately Labour didn’t win it, so she was left with a coalition of sorts. And she ran away.

    That nice Mr Johnson hopes he will not win this election – that’s four ‘hopes to lose’ in a row for the Conservatives.

    I am a conservative and (I discovered much later) a libertarian. In 1970 I shook Mr Heath’s hand, yet when he took us into the ‘common market’ I knew he was wrong.

    Since the 1975 referendum I have been apolitical until UKIP offered me hope that we could quit the fourth reich.

    Since the early Seventies and probably before, my government has been at war with me.

    So let it be.

    DP

    PS I expect that nice Mr Johnson will run away too.

  16. @M’lud – Vote Tory or get Jezza. It is that simple. And Jezza means no Brexit.

    I’ll take a disappointing government and soft Brexit over ruinous Socialism and no Brexit any day.

  17. I’m dumbfounded, Andrew C. I’d like to hear the learned Mr Lud’s opinion. To me, whether a witness in a rape trial – prosecution or defence – had at some time in the past porked the victim would be very germane to the issue. And, in any case, he wasn’t disclosing her sexual history he was disclosing his.
    What was the question? “Are you acquainted with Miss X?”
    “Ï’ve porked her” seems a fair enough answer.” It was certainly the full depth of the acquaintance I had with one or two women in my past. “Very slightly” would hardly cover it, would it?

  18. M’Lud,
    “having already cross-examined him once, prosecution counsel’s got his number and knows which buttons to push”

    Doesn’t it work the other way around? Now that the accused knows what he’s going to be asked, he can better prepare his replies. The prosecution loses the power of surprise. Or have I been watching too many American court dramas?

  19. As above I expect TBP to take more votes from Labour than from the Conservatives – and none from Lib-Dem, PC or Green.
    So a better.arrangement than TBP standing down in Tory held seats would be standing down where the Labour vote is low- where a few lost Tory votes would let a remainer in because there aren’t enough Labour voters for TBP to win.
    I agree Boris refusal to do a deal is bad optics for him, and I further think that giving the Tories a leg up is bad optics for Farage.
    Political greed is the problem here. There’s a crying opportunity for a party to represent the interests of ordinary people, a position Labour used to fill but has abandoned. And TBP, UKIP and the Tories are all competing for that vote.
    We now know that May actually needed to increase her majority in order to prevent the antics of Gauke, Letwin, Soubrey and the like. They are mostly gone, but clearly the Government needs a majority.
    As to dodgy representatives who should have been removed sooner, there are plenty of them in other parties.
    If anyone was surprised by this election it wasn’t the Cabinet, unlike last time.
    There is zero chance of cabinet ministers being sent out to push a manifesto two hours after seeing it, unlike last time.
    I’m already starting to see Tory online campaigning, unlike last time when all I saw were a couple of pictures of “vote Conservative” posters.
    The Labour position is entirely incoherent this time.
    Last time they promised to respect the referendum and implement a bunch of policies which would conflict with EU law. I disagree with the policy proposals but the whole did fit together.
    This time they propose negotiating an exit deal then campaigning against it in a referendum. They propose a four day week which both does and does not affect NHS staff. They proposed that the NHS both continues to use private contractors and stops doing so.
    Corbyn’s personal popularity has sunk since last time.
    Cummings is having a big say in the campaign, and his style during the referendum was to have a big push in the last couple of weeks.

  20. I disagree that certain event around Tory members will lose them the election. 99% of people will says Alun Cairns who? And Nick Conrad, never heard of him. It’ll only affect local voters a small amount.

  21. @ Edward Lud November 13, 2019 at 7:21 pm

    “Trying to lose elections since 2010?”

    Yep.

    Who is Mr Drakon?

    DP

  22. @M’lud – Vote Tory or get Jezza. It is that simple. And Jezza means no Brexit.

    “Vote Republican or get Barack Obama!”

    That worked well for both John McCain and Mitt Romney…

    In the final analysis, if all you can come up with is that your guy isn’t the other guy, you’re backing a loser. You just don’t know it yet.

  23. According to Matthew Goodwin, who does a lot of poll analysis and has looked very closely at TBP, the Brexit Party vote split is about, IIRC, 3:1 Tory: Labour. However the more their vote gets squeezed the more it goes towards 1:1. The other problem is that former Labour voters who say they’ll vote TBP are more likely to go back to Labour than to the Tories, or at least refuse to vote Tory.

    I really don’t see Boris doing a pact with Nigel, he’s more to lose than gain as there’s a lot of Tory Remainers who will just about put with Boris but will flee as soon as they think they get Nigel. It will also hand Remainers a campaign slogan in Tory Leave seats and there’s more of those to lose than potential Labour Leave seats to gain.

  24. “Btw, when, in anywhere between six weeks’ time and three years’ time, a Tory government is still ramming down our throats tax-and-spend, micro-surveillance statism, eco-loonery, open borders murderousness, and every other fashionable boutique obsession, and we have one of those periodic throat-clearings in which idiots in their fourth decade and more suddenly declare they were duped – duped! – by the Tories, but never again will they hold their noses no matter what, then …

    … gits like me will remind the idiots of their idiocy.”

    Never fight on two fronts at once.

    Its absolutely pointless to be trying to find a home for one’s vote that ticks all the following boxes 1) Can achieve Brexit, 2) Can reduce the size of the State/control freakery. and 3) can actually have a chance of implementing (1) and (2). TBP fail the test on at least one box (ability to do anything) and probably the second one as well – TBP is a broad based anti-Brexit coalition, while Farage might be a small government/personal freedom aficionado, there’s not a scrap of evidence that the rest of his movement (as its not a party) is of the same opinion. Indeed were he to start espousing such one suspects a great deal of his ‘party’ would abandon him immediately.

    Boris wins on two IMO, desire to achieve Brexit and ability to do so. Reducing control freakery etc not so much, but thats a battle for another day.

  25. That nice Mrs May did not expect to win ‘her’ election.

    She had a ‘working’ majority (about 17, I think) and had a massive lead in the polls, 10-15%. She definitely expected to win (why call it otherwise?) but unfortunately had no concept of how useless she was, because she had been elected unopposed, a really bad idea. Temporary “show of unity” vs longer term harm.

  26. All Johnson had to do to get Farage’s blessing was keep No Deal on the table. Farage offered him an orange branch. Johnson singularly failed to take it.

    My bold and why I don’t trust Johnson

    Johnson says “Fantastic New Deal” – EU says “It’s Not”

    We [EU] have not amended the Withdrawal Agreement/Treaty, we have made clarifications not amended. EU Council made it clear WA not re-opened and basis of latest extension granted

    There you have it, straight form EU:

    “Boris Johnson’s ‘Fantastic New Deal’ is May’s deal clarified.”

    Hmm, why is this hidden in “Female Commissar”?

    .
    Johnson says “Fantastic Free Trade Deal by December 2020, no extensions beyond then”

    EU’s Michel Barnier says “Non”

    UK’s future relationship with EU not be concluded by end 2020

  27. Conservative Party’s election campaign

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been accused of not understanding his own Brexit deal after he gave a rambling and incoherent speech on the election trail.
    Boris Johnson’s Brexit analysis: EU does not want to react on PM’s “electoral campaign comments”

    Another Johnson says; EU disagrees – and who decides? Why the ECJ of course.

  28. @Tim the Coder November 13, 2019 at 5:43 pm

    Sajid David cracked a line about [doing more, spending more] ecofreakery at the Conservative Party conference, expecting a roar of applause, and got a total silent response.

    …and the stony silence ignored by MSM

    Oh yes, they can alienate everyone. Especially Conservative voters who decide “none of above” as John Major discovered in 1997

  29. She had a ‘working’ majority (about 17, I think) and had a massive lead in the polls, 10-15%. She definitely expected to win (why call it otherwise?) but unfortunately had no concept of how useless she was, because she had been elected unopposed, a really bad idea. Temporary “show of unity” vs longer term harm.

    It was around 17 if you exclude Sinn Fein.

    To be fair there was a 5.5% increase in the Tory vote, but Labour’s increased by 9.6%. They ended up on 42.4% and 40.0% respectively.

    A month out from #GE2019:

    Con 40%
    Lab 28%

    A month out from #GE2017:
    Con 47%
    Lab 29%

    Don’t rule out big shifts …

  30. I don’t get this talk about a Tory majority being good for Brexit. The Tories were always opposed to Brexit. The majority campaigned against it. There’s no evidence they’re for it now. The only ‘for’ I can see the Tories being for is is being snugly in government. There’s absolutely no telling what they’ll do if that’s the outcome of the election. You believe their manifesto? FFS! These people are serial liars. The optimum outcome for Brexit is a minority Tory government with the BP holding a good number of seats & the balance of power.

  31. The optimum outcome for Brexit is a minority Tory government with the BP holding a good number of seats & the balance of power

    That’d be great, but seems unlikely, and Nige’s tactical withdrawal shows you how the land lies.

    Boris’ deal is ok though, we can live with it I reckon. There’s plenty of time to Tories Delenda Est after we leave the EU. And especially if we don’t.

    Early days, realignment, half a loaf, etc. No point in worrying too much as the only plausible outcomes of this election are BJ as PM or JC as Gardener of Human Happiness.

  32. That photo of Boris looks like the person behind him is part through transforming into St Greta, like when Agent Smith co-opts a nearby body to thwart Neo’s grand plan.

  33. You people are kidding yourselves. You ain’t getting Brexit. The vote was on 23 June 2016. You are still in the EU. 3-and-a-half years later.

    “UK’s future relationship with EU not be concluded by end 2020”

    Exactly. 2020 is just the latest lie. As was 31 October.

    “the government has always been at war with the people.”

    Interesting concept. Western governments abandoned their prime duties years ago. To my mind, I was thinking 1960s. But Lincoln’s support of the Morrill Tariff, and, indeed, the Tariffs of Abomination in 1828 and 1832, “always” may be accurate.

  34. The optimum outcome for Brexit is a minority Tory government with the BP holding a good number of seats & the balance of power.

    You may be right, or you may be wrong, BiS. But it doesn’t matter, because it’s never going to happen.

  35. @BiND
    True stats, but that was after the worst manifesto in human history – I don’t think Dom or Boris will permit that error to reoccur. I always incline to the cock-up, rather than conspiracy, theory of history; but if you wanted to write a manifesto guaranteed to lose an election, it would look very like May’s.

  36. Apparently he was asked about his relationship with her and claims he wasn’t told he couldn’t say he’d slept with her so was just answering the question fully. If anyone then the surely the defence for bringing him in as a witness knowing his testimony should be at fault.
    Given there doesn’t seem to have been any action taken against him despite the judges rant I’m not sure why it’s such a big issue.

  37. @Chris Miller,

    Yes, a lot of water to flow under a lot of bridges. But the biggest issue is that the national polls don’t reflect the local and cross party Brexit is playing havoc with the vagaries of FPTP.

    One subject I haven’t seen mentioned this time is that quite a few Labour MPs campaigned on the basis that it was safe to vote for them because there was no danger of Corbyn becoming PM. This time that message doesn’t have the same quite hit home.

  38. Given there doesn’t seem to have been any action taken against him despite the judges rant I’m not sure why it’s such a big issue.

    They’ve got to get the rape conviction rates up.

  39. Tim–that has the stink of a paid piece of some sort–or an ad pitch as someone says above. It is vastly longer than your usual style and something isn’t quite right about the way it comes over.

    Also its bullshite.

    Jizz promises to increase motoring costs 60% over the next 10 years but Boris might lose because some fucking Grandee most people have never heard of said something non PC?

    Don’t be stupid.

    The polls are fixed. As I said a week ago there are limits to how fixed they can be but they certainly are fixed in short ranges. Perhaps to encourage the ZaNu gang or push folks towards the Tories. I don’t know.

  40. Mr in Spain, “I’m dumbfounded, Andrew C. I’d like to hear the learned Mr Lud’s opinion. To me, whether a witness in a rape trial – prosecution or defence – had at some time in the past porked the victim would be very germane to the issue. And, in any case, he wasn’t disclosing her sexual history he was disclosing his.
    What was the question? “Are you acquainted with Miss X?”
    “Ï’ve porked her” seems a fair enough answer.” It was certainly the full depth of the acquaintance I had with one or two women in my past. “Very slightly” would hardly cover it, would it?”

    It’s not something I know a huge amount about but given what little I think I do know of it, you ought to be dumbfounded. I actually suspect this kind of malarkey backfires in front of juries, as well, which is why, having tried to fix jury trials, the usual suspects have moved on to trying to abolish them. The semi-permanent disgust I was having to choke back in the face of each new improvement to the system of stitching up defendants was a secondary reason for my ditching criminal work.

    Andrew M, “Doesn’t it work the other way around? Now that the accused knows what he’s going to be asked, he can better prepare his replies. The prosecution loses the power of surprise. Or have I been watching too many American court dramas?”

    I don’t know how it is in American courtroom dramas, they irritate the hell out of me so I avoid them. But, yes, logically, you have a point. In reality, it tends not to work that way. For one thing, the prosecutor has done a lot more of this sort of thing than the defendant and so is more alert to the risk of staleness. For another, the prosecutor will generally be cleverer and have a surer idea of how things will play out in front of a jury. Rehearsed replies are not compelling (which, btw, is one very good reason for no coaching witnesses).

  41. Boris has already dropped his opening rock by banning fracking. He would order you to push your mother under the bus if he thought that it would help him win the election

  42. Southerner–As said on prev thread that is likely just Green dick sucking pre-election. Torys still like money better than eco-slurping. Jizz however promises to increase motoring costs 60% over 10 years and is fucking mental enough to follow through.

  43. Pcar

    We [EU] have not amended the Withdrawal Agreement/Treaty, we have made clarifications not amended. EU Council made it clear WA not re-opened and basis of latest extension granted

    There you have it, straight form EU:

    “Boris Johnson’s ‘Fantastic New Deal’ is May’s deal clarified.”

    Simply as a matter of fact, that is not accurate. Because she conceded – after being challenged – that the Withdrawal Agreement had been changed (ie, for Boris) but would not then be changed again following the Council meeting of 29th October.

    And I also failed to reach your conclusion on this, after listening carefully to the link you provided?

    EU’s Michel Barnier says “Non”

    UK’s future relationship with EU not be concluded by end 2020

    I’m not arguing with personal positions here on Brexit, simply the facts / interpretation of the links provided.

  44. I think we should vote for Jo Swinson to be PM. She is a good hearted, tolerant, liberal, democratic, sensible leader of the Lib Dems. She would reset the UK to seisible moderate tolerant values.
    She is also married to an anti corruption charity boss. So she would be good at stopping corruption in the UK.

    What is it about decades of peace, geo-political security, freedom, liberty, prosperity, and peace that
    decades of EU EEC membership[ has brought to Western Europe, that eurosceptics dislike?.
    Look at weak geo-political regions in the Cold War, like South East Asia, Latin America, and Africa to see what happens to geo -political regions during history.
    If Europe breaks up and becomes weak, it will become a proxy battle ground for geo-political battle grounds between the new and old superpowers, of China and Russia.

    Also why did Farage say he was offered titles by the tories, to support them. Surely offering political titles for political support is worse than cash for peerages, and shows the Tories as corrupt.

    Also do not be a Tory Tool. Do not vote for the Brexit Party or the Tories.

  45. We aren’t voting for PM, we’re voting to elect the MP of our local constituency. For the awful Swinson to become PM would require a huge shift in the electoral kaleidoscope. But “go back to your constituencies and prepare for government” has been a constant cry of the LimpDums since they were shooting each other’s dogs.

    There are valid arguments for the EU, but “keeping the peace for 75 years” isn’t one of them. I rather think 75,000 NATO troops on the Rhine had more to do with the absence of armed conflict in western Europe than a few thousand fonctionnaires in the Berlaymont.

  46. @bloke in spain November 13, 2019 at 10:49 pm

    Agree

    Hence my post a few days ago:

    Which is why I didn’t want May to win with large majority in 2017 – she’d have revoked Art 50*

    I want Johnson to be dependent on DUP and hopefully TBP MPs

    .
    *

    Shortly after Mays GE announcement, I posted on Tim W’s blog:

    I don’t trust May. I can see May winning large majority and saying ~ “I have a mandate, I voted remain, Brexit cancelled”. Might have posted it here too.

    .
    @Steve November 13, 2019 at 10:58 pm

    Boris’ deal is NOT ok though, it is in EU words “Clarified May’s Deal/Treaty”

    .
    @Gamecock November 13, 2019 at 11:45 pm

    Agree

  47. @Mr Ecks November 14, 2019 at 1:27 pm

    ‘Torys still like money better than eco-slurping

    Agree, but Tory MPs differ and are indoctrinated to like eco-slurping – see Javid at Conference

    .
    @PF November 14, 2019 at 5:56 pm

    Fair points. Post was summary. WA “changed” vs “clarified” : shuffling bits in/out of WA/PD when PD is now legally binding – Art 184. Both can be appropriate here; but in EU Law & ECJ it’s different

    Barnier/Boris Dec 2020 – Barnier calls the shots (for now) and is saying Non

  48. Chris
    The European Union did keep the peace. There were thousands of American troops in Vietnam in the Vietnam, that did not keep the peace. There were thousands of american soldiers in Saudi Arabia that did not keep the peace in the Middle East.
    It was the European Union that kept the peace in Europe.
    You can cry all you want, but you do not understand geopolitics.

  49. Bloke in Wales – If I wanted the opinion of an old fart I would have broken wind. And my farts would make more sense that illiterate, deeply frustrated, ill educated rants you come spout LOL.

  50. @Dick
    I’m sure you believe the EU to have achieved many wonderful things, but I don’t think they have a time machine that would have allowed them to keep the peace for 50 years before their existence.

    Would you like to awe us further with your deep understanding of geopolitics?

    You can cry all you want, but the UK is leaving the EU, and will be much the better for it.

  51. @Dick West

    Are you that EU Twat who told EU Parl “EU defeated Nazis in WWII”?

    .
    @Chris Miller

    Other than money, difficult to understand why EU won’t permit us to leave.

    We’re a hindrance to their objectives of an EU Empire and EU Army/Military

    .
    @Tim Worstall

    Why silence on EU fining UK for not Nominating new Commissar?

  52. Pingback: Will Johnson Snatch Defeat From The Jaws Of Victory? – Politics Article – Politics Blog

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