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Madsen\’s mistake

Here.

To say that that is the mistake that Marx made is a mistake: for he made more than one.

Got quite a bit right too, obviously. The bits he cribbed off Smith are just fine for example.

Nick Matthiason\’s spouting bollocks

Sorry Nick, no, this isn\’t true.

That treasure trove is the $3.1tn of tax, equivalent to 5.1% of global GDP, which according to international campaign group Tax Justice Network is illegally evaded in 145 countries, covering 98.2% of the world\’s population.

That\’s Ritchie\’s report that is.

The majority of these flows are washed through tax havens. These secrecy jurisdictions act as cover from international tax authorities. Disturbingly, the obstacles placed by the global financial system that would allow individual countries to track down and repatriate this cash are prohibitively burdensome. This is why a new age of financial transparency and accountability is required. Five key reforms would lay the foundations for this:

And no, Ritchie\’s report shows no such thing.

Let us, for a moment, assume Ritchie\’s report is correct (and for once I\’ve no problem with his basic methodology although I do of course with the conclusions he draws).

What he\’s shown is that there\’s a largish grey economy in many countries. And this grey economy ain\’t people fooling around in tax havens. It\’s the builder doing a job for cash, VAT off. Dozen eggs at the farm, no receipt.

This grey economy that Ritchie has measured just isn\’t all about offshore at all. Tax avoidance might be, the black economy of illegal activities, the drugs etc, might well be, but this grey economy that is being measured here is pretty much a domestic phenomenon in each and every country.

So, however much you want to collect this tax, however much you want to get the tax avoidace industry, I\’m sorry, but you\’re spouting bollocks when you use this report to call for closing down offshore.

They\’re just not related.

Well said George!

Let\’s say £500,000 a year, a figure that includes bonuses, share options, pensions and benefits.

Silly but brave, given that both his editor and his editor\’s boss at GMG would take a pay cut under this scheme.

Ho, ho, ho

We’ve experienced 30 years of public service “reform” which means that many public services, certainly those at local level, are already delivering serious value for money. All the fat was long ago pared away.

Rilly?

Employer:

ISLINGTON COUNCIL
Posted:

20 January 2012
Ref:

CR/2339/ST
Contact:

Emma Marinos
Location:

London
Function:

Marketing / PR
Level:

Senior Executive
Contract:

Contract
Hours:

Full Time

Salary:

£62,460 – £66,366
£63k a year for telling everyone how lovely the council is so that the Councillors get re-elected?
The job\’s little more than phoning the Rolodex of the journos on the local Borough newspapers.
That\’s all the fat pared away is it?

Questions in The Observer we can answer

How can £20bn cash cuts and increased marketisation lead to a better NHS?

1) Markets (note, not capitalism, markets) promote innovation better than centrally planned or run systems.

2) Innovation leads to increases in total factor productivity.

3) Increases in tfp are synonymous with (as in, this is the definition of tfp) being able to do more with the same resources, being able to do the same with fewer resources.

A market driven health care service (note please, not a capitalist one) will be more efficient over time than a not-market driven health care service.

That\’s how.

Willy Hutton comes over to the Friedmanite dark side

Government must therefore set a policy framework that forces the close collaboration of monetary, financial and fiscal policy to induce a sustained rise in credit from our very wounded and risk-averse financial system. The British government, along with other western governments, must replace its redundant inflation target with a target for the growth of the value of the goods and services we produce – the growth of GDP in cash terms. It should say that every instrument of policy – quantitative easing, interest rates, government borrowing, guarantees for new bank lending – will be used to sustain the growth of money GDP by 7% a year for the next five years.

This is NGDP targetting.

Of course, Willy being Willy he doesn\’t understand that this is a direct outgrowth of Friedmanite monetarism.

Nor does he understand that it\’s all about money, the money supply, the monetary stance. None of the rest of his blather about government subsidies and direction of investment is necessary at all.

But then if Willy understood the genesis of his pronouncements, the implications of them, then he wouldn\’t be Willy, would he?

Peter Tatchell: A Good Thing

The occasion of Peter Tatchell\’s 60 th birthday.

Man\’s a loon of course.

His various forays into the world of economics have been laughably ignorant.

Certain of his campaigns have been based upon very, very, odd readings of the world.

Yet, as Sellars and Yeatman didn\’t put it, he\’s not been wrong but wromatic, nor even right but repulsive.

On balance, he\’s been a Good Thing.

On which note Happy Birthday to Mr. Tatchell, someone who probably wouldn\’t accept one but most certainly should be offered a peerage.

For we should cherish, promote, reward and acknowledge the loons that we are privileged to have among us.

Thieves and charlatans in social housing

Ouch, these numbers hurt:

A fifth of all council house tenancies may be fraudulent, according to investigators who have conducted the first large-scale examination of the problem………

Fraud investigators matched 27,000 tenants – the entire tenant roll of two councils and four housing associations – against mortgage and credit databases.

They found \”indications of fraud\” – such as the tenants having mortgages, utility bills or active credit at other addresses – in 5,300 cases…………

HJK, which works for councils and housing associations performed the \”data-matching\” exercise with the 27,000 tenants using legal, publicly-held databases such as credit reference agencies and the Land Registry.

In 2,120 cases, 8 per cent of the total, HJK found \”red\” indicators of fraud, where the registered tenant had a mortgage, bank account, active credit or utility bills at another residential address.

In 3,180 cases, 12 per cent of the total, they found \”amber\” indicators of fraud – active credit, bank accounts, Sky TV or utility bill records held by a person with a different surname at the tenancy address, but no such activity there by the registered tenant.

And the importance of all this?

There are eight million council or housing association homes in England and 1.8 million households on the waiting list.

So, near enough, those people on the waiting list are matched by those in council housing who are already paying market rents to the dodgy characters who are subletting and pocketing the subsidy.

Or, we don\’t actually have a shortage of social housing at all. We\’ve got instead an excess of fraud in the social housing stock we already have.

No need at all to build more: just make sure that those getting the subsidy are those who are supposed to get the subsidy.

I will, of course, be fascinated to hear what the professional homeless crowd have to say about this.

This won\’t be an accurate number of course because London rents are higher than elsewhere but just to give an indication of the scale of the problem.

Last week, Shelina Akhtar, a councillor in the London borough of Tower Hamlets, admitted subletting her housing association property as she was convicted of £1100 in housing benefit fraud.

She paid a subsidised \”social rent\” of £400 a month, but lived in private accommodation elsewhere and charged her tenant £1000 a month.

£600 a month on 1.6 million properties. £1 billion a month, £12 billion a year. Yes, even in today\’s inflationary times that\’s real money.

 

On not recognising polygamous marriages in the welfare system

At the time they stated: \”Where there is a valid polygamous marriage the claimant and one spouse will be paid the couple rate … The amount payable for each additional spouse is presently £33.65.\”

This has subsequently been increased to £38.45 a week for second and subsequent spouses, while the husband and his first wife are paid the ordinary couple rate of £105.95.

As well as income support, a husband with more than one wife is also eligible for possible housing benefit and council tax relief because of the larger property needed to accommodate his family.

OK, so they\’re going to do away with this system. Apparently it applies to some 1,000 families in the country (where valid polygamous marriages have been contracted abroad and then a subsequent move to the UK).

Shrug. 1,000 families is less than a rounding error in the system.

Under the new system of Universal Credit, which will replace all mean-tested benefits from next year, polygamous marriages will not be recognised at all.

Instead, a husband and one wife will claim as a couple – with any other adults living in the household claiming as single people.

And that\’s the new system.

Now, the benefits system is of such awesome complexity that I have no idea of the answer to the next question(s).

Will this actually reduce the benefits bill?

Imagine the maximum Moslem family possible: one man, four women. We\’re moving from one couple plus three extras to one couple plus three single people. This may or may not mean more paid in benefits, less paid, I dunno.

Now move it to the more likely situation: those religious enough to have such a multiple marriage are likely religious enough to be fruitful and multiply. So in fact we\’re moving to a system of one married couple with children and three single parents with children. All of whom get to make their own claims on the welfare system independently. As we are quite deliberately and specifically not recognising the specific circumstances of the polygynous marriage.

Is this going to save money? That\’s not the only lens through which to view the decision, of course, but will it actually save money?

Given the way the system does pay out for single parent families I have my doubts but does anyone actually know?

Guardian idiocy again

Seriously, is it entirely necessary to be ignorant of finance to write for The Guardian on finance?

Greece is on the verge of a breakthrough in talks with its creditors that could wipe out up to 70% of its debts and alleviate the crisis in the eurozone.

No it bloody isn\’t.

They\’re on the verge of a deal whereby some of their creditors take a 70% haircut on their debt.

But not all of their creditors take a 70% haircut.

Therefore the total debt will fall by some amount smaller than 70%.

Ritchie on Vodafone India

We get the great man\’s words:

This was a transaction relating to Indian assets that India wanted to tax, and thought it could tax. But it was recorded ‘elsewhere’ in a tax haven structure. And the result is that the legal form of recording it ‘elsewhere’ has meant that Inida’s laws have been subverted and tax is not due.

Yes, that\’s right. A ruling on the law from the Supreme Court is subversion of the law.

Rather than, as most of us would take it, a declaration of what the law actually is.

Can I call Tristram Hunt a Twat?

Or should I use the more obvious word?

It is a tradition of redistribution, intervention and socialism equally as compelling as Adam Smith\’s \”invisible hand\” (which, one should remember, was a satirical attack on laissez-faire morality, drawn from Shakespeare\’s Macbeth).

It\’s got bugger all to do with laissez faire morality. It\’s about how the merchant (read, capitalist, for the word had not been invented in Smith\’s time) will, despite the greater profits of the foreign trade, find himself still likely to invest at home.

The most important modern result of which is that even if we have perfect theoretical capital mobility it still isn\’t true that labour bears all of the incidence of corporate taxation.

Calling Mr. Luke, Calling Mr. Luke

I know this street very well. Used to work in one of the restaurants you can see up on the high pavement, at another just up the little alleyway there. Bought my flat from the estate agents you can see (upside down, when the altercation is going on) at the other end of the street.

Indeed, my flat is a whole 100 yards or so up that alleyway.

And yes, that is the A4 that she\’s parked her car on.

Dunno who the bird from Ulster is but I\’m sure Mr. Luke, if he should care to comment, can tell us which shop it is she has in that area.

More unlearning economics

This is just too good a comment to pass up.

I’ve had to study Public Choice Theory as part of my economics degree, and it really is the biggest load of rubbish I’ve ever read, and sums up how economics is not a science, but simply a pseudoscientific enterprise designed to promote the interests of the wealthy. We’re told by economists that governments are effectively rent seekers, who are not interested in the welfare of society but simply to feather their own nets. Their solution seems to be to privatise government and the let the market rule everything. Funny how neoliberal economists never apply their sceptical public choice theory to look at, for example, executive pay (and the cosy cartel that sets it), or the way businesses through extensive lobbying and funding given governments incentives to pursue policies in the interest of the 1%.

I’m glad there are economics students who also think what we learn is a lot of rubbish, and how biased the subject is towards neoliberalism. I’ve had to sit through 3 years of listening to my lecturers trying to convince me that the welfare system is hugely distortionary, high progressive income taxes are undesirable and should be replaced by flat taxes, privatisation of industry will improve efficiency and that governments shouldn’t do anything about poverty and inequality because it would “distort” their beloved market.

It’s high time people started questioning the pseudoscientific BS we’re expected to swallow. Eventually, with more people starting blogs like this exposing the subject (along with disbelievers like Steve Keen) hopefully funding for economics will dry up, and the discipline will cease to exist as a serious academic endeavour, like astronomy, and therefore will stop influencing policymakers.

Err, no. Public choice theory isn\’t stating that governments are merely predatory rent seekers.

It\’s saying that you can understand a lot about what goes on if you view them as such sometimes. It\’s a very useful explanation of why MPs\’ pensions are better than those of anyone else in the country. Why the PM\’s pension is simp[ly fantabulous.

Really, at heart, all that is being said is that the first thing to learn about economics is that incentives matter. So, look at the incentives of those in government as well as those out of it.

And the welfare system is distortionary: 70-90% (there are some poor souls over 100%) marginal tax and benefit withdrawal rates are distortionary. It might be worth having these distortions to reach your other goals, it might not be, but it\’s very definitely distortionary. High progressive income taxes might be desirable for some reasons….reducing inequality of income perhaps. But they also have other effects: such as reducing future economic growth. Which is the second thing you need to learn about economics. There\’s no such thing as a solution, there are only trade offs.

And you\’d better bloody well understand the trade offs you\’re making when you make decisions: which is what your economics course is trying to train you to do but obviously failing.

BTW, it\’s astrology you mean, not astronomy.

And most amusing is this from our unlearning econ guy:

Yes that sums up many problems with economics pretty well. My lecturers are actually about as moderate as it gets in a mainstream university so I’m lucky, but I still find it hard to write about models that I know are just wrong. It seems you felt similarly.

This is known as \”Doing a Ritchie\”.

Ignoring what you\’re being taught because it\’s obviously wrong, innit?

And you only need to read Ritchie to see where that leads you. About which I think my favourite is his reinvention from first principles of marginal utility as a refutation of neo-classical economics: neo-classical economics being the form of economics which introduced marginal utility, indeed, neo-classical economics being based on the insight of marginal utility. That\’s why we call it all the Marginalist Revolution, see?

Half remembered facts lead to a bad analysis

Senior bankers, private equity moguls and hedge fund managers appear cut off from the rest of us. They often pay little or no tax,

Eh?

What is this little or no tax? Is this some distand memory of the hedgie paying less tax than his cleaner? Which is really he pays a lower marginal rate than his cleaner, not less tax?

Romney made a fortune of an estimated $250 million dollars out of financial engineering and private equity, while benefiting from tax breaks, during his business career. He paid a reported 15 per cent tax on his profits – a rate considerably lower than most Americans.

Err, no. He paid and pays the capital gains tax rate on his capital gains. Exactly the same as all other Americans.

Economists say that the super-rich in the United States are now seven times better off than they were 30 years ago. Troublingly, this massive growth of wealth and power has come directly at the expense of ordinary people. Statistics show that the income of the average working male in the United States has flatlined since the 1970s.

Look at that logic. The rich have got richer, the middle have not got richer. So, how is the increase at the top at the expense of the not rich? The only way it could be is if the proceeds of economic growth have been asymmetrically divided. But that\’s not the same as taking stuff off ordinary people, is it?

Further, it\’s not actually true that average male wages have flatlined since the 1970s. It\’s that median household wage incomes have: and that just ain\’t the same thing at all. For households have got smaller (meraning higher incomes per capita) and household compensation has risen strongly. Much of that compensation coming in the form of better health care which, as it is employer provided compensation but not wages does not get included in the wages numbers.

But now we come to a real problem.

Murray exposes how the new United States upper class, which he labels a “cognitive elite”, has developed an hereditary stranglehold over the top professions and management positions. The brightest people tend to marry each other, then ensure that their offspring get to the best schools and universities, with the result that, to quote Murray: “The parents of the upper-middle class now produce a disproportionate number of the smartest children.”

Assortative mating. One of the things that is seriously driving household income inequality is the way in which marriage is increasingly taking place between people with similar education levels, working in similar type jobs. This is a result of the entry of women into the workforce as equals and the subsequent later age of marriage.

Quite simply, time was, marriage came from those around you, the family\’s friends etc. And upon marriage most women became housewives. Now marriage is contracted later, from among those one meets at university or at work. Or in hte social circles associated with work. Graduates thus marry graduates, professionals professionals, non-professionals non-professionals and so on.

Yes, there is an increasing stratification of household incomes, as we get one group over here, of two professional income households and another group over here of two non-professional incomes. Even if one of those incomes might be put on hiatus for some years, or part time. Two 50k plus professional incomes is going to lead to very different household incomes than two 25k median incomes.

Yes, this is a rise in inequality of household incomes. But to stop it you\’ll have to do one of two things. Change who people marry (and good luck with that one). Or return to taxation of households. That is, remove women\’s tax independence. Which should really go down well with the sisters. Not to say, how do you define a household when marriage isn\’t the defining attribute of a household any more?

I say this is a problem: it is if inequality of household income is something you worry about. But I cannot see any solution to this inequality that isn\’t a horrible retrograde step in terms of individual liberty. Men and women should be treated equally by the tax system. Taxed on their incomes/property, not changeably dependent upon who they shag regularly (to the extent that that happens in marriage tee hee). And we certainly don\’t want any system whereby who you can marry (or shag regularly, have children by) is determined in any manner by the State.

So I don\’t think there\’s a solution to that, is there?

This is really very amusing indeed

Private owners of capital used the state to force peasants – who, in the 14th century, worked about a quarter of hours that the average person does now – to work 12 hour days in factories.

We\’re supposed to believe that a peasant working in a subsistence economy works 10 hours a week are we? Assuming a 40 hour working week now.

Or given the average working year in the UK of something like 1500 hours, a peasant worked 375 hours a year? 7 hours a week, not even one full day\’s labour?

No, I think we can call bullshit on that one, don\’t you?

 

Correct

6. The best thing for wages and working conditions is full employment, and we can achieve this by getting rid of the minimum wage and regulations. This will increase wages and improve working conditions, but these higher wages and conditions won’t reduce employment in the same way as the regulations did before because free market.

Yup.

Because optimal.

There is some level of wages and working conditions which is the best we can do at any particluar level of technology or wealth. The trade offs of those in work having great wages and conditions and those who can\’t get work because their labour is not worth the great wages and conditions.

We need some method of calculating what is this optimal trade off.

It is possible that the flapheads and addlepates that go into politics are able to calculate this optimal trade off. Historical experience tells us that this isn\’t quite the way it works out.

It is also possible that Hayek was right, that it isn\’t possible to do such calculations about the economy because we have to actually use the entire economy to perform the calculations for us.

65 million people employing the wisdom of the crowds to reach that best as we can get to optimum instead of the flapheads and addlepates who go into politics.

Yes, quite, because free market.