Timmy Elsewhere

The Business.

Mad hatters and trade balances.

1 thought on “Timmy Elsewhere”

  1. The trade one wasn’t your best piece, I have to say – most of the problem comes from mixing monthly and quarterly data.

    The mystery of the Q3 US Trade data is not that it was falling whilst capital inflows were rising, but that capital inflows at $250bn, when netted from capital outflows of $180bn, are nowhere near enough to fund a $180bn deficit. Clearly an undercount of something, probably official flows.

    The trade deficit by the way improved from $178bn negative to $173bn – not really stunning. IT was the income balance that saw most of the adjustment.

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