3 comments on “Timmy Elsewhere

  1. I can see where the mantra “imports make us richer” would …err…sound logical..
    after all other counries make certain things more efficiently and we do too and we trade these items and both are better off…
    yet for the last 40 years the US has become poorer and Japan,china, india have become richer
    The US is a net importer,the rest net exporters
    The difference between these nets is a transfer of fiat currency (and debasement of same)
    The US is getting so rich ,we may have an economic collapse(as if we arent already in that position)
    tell me where I am wrong

    Tim adds: The US has not become poorer over the past 40 years. It has become vastly richer. Next?

  2. Tim adds: The US has not become poorer over the past 40 years. It has become vastly richer. Next?>>

    and we are not on the verge of economic collapse??..
    next??

    Tim adds: Economic collapse? No. A recession? Quiote possibly. Migh lose a year or two’s growth. This isn’t nice or pretty but it’s not a disaster.

  3. Both wrong, in my opinion.

    Mr. Butlers’ wrong for the reason Tim’s pointed out.

    But Tim may be wrong–I believe WILL be–for reasons having not to do primarily with trade or trade imbalance.

    My view is that the present course in monetary (not trade) affairs is one which, if continued, must end disastrously. The problem is not one of enduring recessionary conditions or even a depression as corrective of inflation-induced malinvestment. Given the “management” of money-supplies by authorities, these are given
    inevitabilities manifested in business cycles, though not predictable as to magnitude nor even timing.

    The problem currently faced, though acknowledged nowhere (of which I’m aware) is that of world-wide monetary collapse, possible in a space of time not much greater than that with which this message itself may be seen and appreciated around the world.

    The world and its divisions have NEVER been in this position before.

    At all times in the past, there had existed some currencies which were actually convertible under some conditions to some of whatever was the monetary commodity. As a plain matter of fact, complete monetary collapse in any given country could normally be foreseen for quite some time and those sufficiently alert able to take steps to minimize their exposure to loss in their own currency even at the risk of violating certain laws against protecting one’s interests.

    But presently, all currencies are of the “fiat” variety to fairly similar extents (the only exceptions being those that are currently “worse”–i.e., actually collapsing).

    Know one can know when it’s going to happen. All one can say about what can be observed of currencies of the past is that EVERY one has collapsed (or required revaluation) and that most, though under inflationary pressure, had some tangible backing and, usually, convertibility (neither of these potential “safety valves” exists at present).

    Everyone, everywhere, is aware that money is becoming worth less with the passage of time. When, to any significant group, it will have become apparent that money in their possession is in danger of becoming worthless within a somewhat foreseeable future, IT WILL ALREADY BE TOO LATE TO DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT ON AN INDIVIDUAL BASIS !! At that point, no one will trade anything of value for it except on a purely speculative basis (and, as a personal experience, I know of a case in which $500
    bought several millions of $ of a currency which would not be known generally to be worthless for several more days).

    In the most likely case, commerce will cease altogether except as enforced by emergency and martial law. Even drastic action will not be sufficient to feed many now-supernumerary mouths present in populated centers and those places dependent on imported food.

    What I describe is CERTAIN–if changes are not made. I stated previously that the problem is acknowledged nowhere. But there are many, including in positions of responsibilty for such matters, who can see this all quite as clearly as can I. I must conclude simply, that they believe the potential to be somewhat further in the future than do I–that there’ll be opportunity to fix things before the worst becomes unpreventable. They may be right but I don’t think so. I’m convinced that that anything they think they know now would have precluded them from making the arrangement which constitutes present reality; and THAT understanding is even less confidence-inspiring as to their ability to deal with conditions of the developing future.

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