In economic terms, Tim Harford argues in his book The Logic of Life that divorce is "a rational response to changed incentives" (women\’s ability to earn money outside the home) and both less marriage and less divorce are simply the result.
That\’s not quite how economic incentives work. If divorce is a rational response to changed incentives, such as that women are no longer financially reliant upon the man, then we would expect to see more divorce.
Yes, the same incentives will lead to fewer marriages in the first place and thus logically to fewer divorces. However, that\’s rather counting the wrong thing: it\’s the rate of divorce amongst those already married which is the important thing, for those not married cannot of course divorce.
So while we might indeed see fewer divorces (or less divorce, to carry on yesterday\’s grammar Nazi argument) in fact, amongst the relevant population we\’ll be seeing more.