It\’s Official!

Global warming will stop until at least 2015 because of natural variations in the climate, scientists have said.


Ñow there\’s actually (at least) three different ways to read this. Firstly, as they themselves describe, things like El Nino and changes in the Gulf Stream change the decadal and annual numbers, but those are simply blips around the underlying trend.

Secondly, that there are more negative feedbacks in the system than anyone currently gives credit to (please note that the IPCC\’s own predictions of warming directly from CO2 emmisions is a 1oC rise for a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The larger rises all come from positive feedbacks).

Thirdly, that some are worried about why there hasn\’t been a year warmer than 1998 yet and are cobbling together an explanation which is still consistent with underlying warming.

One and three are not in fact mutually inconsistent: it\’s really your own level of cynicism about the whole idea which will lead you to prefer one or the other.


8 thoughts on “It\’s Official!”

  1. The MMGW nutters stuck a rules on a graph ten years ago and decreed that this trend would go on forever.

    A bit like the banks and estate agents who stuck a rules on a graph and said that house prices would rise forever.

    Twats, the lot of them.

  2. Back in the days when mad cow disease stalked the land there were predictions that hundreds of thousands of people would be infected with CJD. When the number of new cases stubbornly refused to rise above a few tens each year, the sages decided that the incubation period must be longer than they’d thought but it was still only a matter of time before brains turned en masse into sponge. As the number of new cases of CJD has still not increased, I understand the remaining adherents of the mad cow sect believe the incubation period is now somewhat longer than a human lifetime. Others, perhaps less visionary, just think the original “theory” was wrong.

    I wonder what became of the bird flu pandemic which, a couple of years ago, was on the verge of hopping onto a plane from Hong Kong to Heathrow to wipe out Western civilisation? Still lurking no doubt.

    MMGW is more robust than either of those scares. It’s quite like Iraqi WMD – suggested by a small number of people on the basis of highly dubious evidence and then taken up by others for ideological, political and economic reasons. The spurious claims for Iraqi WMD led to a fairly local calamity. The equally uncritically accepted claims for MMGW may lead to far greater problems if, while governments prepare for warming, the climate instead cools, shortening the growing season and reducing the area of land on which crops can be grown.

  3. Will, a flu pandemic (originating in birds or not) is almost infinitely more likely to wipe us out in the next 100 years than global warming…

  4. Sometimes peeps you just do not get it!

    This is actually a great thing for the warmenists. Think of all the fun they can have with statements like ‘Nature is giving us a 7 year window to deal with known consequences of climate change’, ‘Now is the time for the whole world to change it’s ways and this can only be done with an injection of cash hitherto unimaginable’, etc. etc.

    I know.

    My bad.


  5. Zorro, in broad terms of course I agree – my point concerned the durability of the scare. Bird flu hysteria gripped the media for a few weeks; MMGW hysteria has so far managed several years.

    I wonder how long it will before cooling becomes the great threat:

    I have no doubt that, just as the media has flipped in a few months from apparently believing that house prices would rise forever to predicting falls of 50%, the switch from frying to freezing, should the facts inconveniently so dictate, will be accomplished with the casual grace of a Gordon Brown apology.

  6. My own model of the phenomenon is that a bunch of inept “scientists” started the hare running, and when the evidence started to look shaky, they started to lie.

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