Timmy Elsewhere

At the GI.

Yes, trade does reduce the risks of war. A doubling of trade leads to a 20% reduction in belligerence.


5 thoughts on “Timmy Elsewhere”

  1. On the McDonald’s myth, see also US/Panama 1989; US/Serbia 1999; Israel/Lebanon 2006

    Also, I think the main concern (not one which I particularly share) among hawks isn’t so much the trade thing in and of itself, but that at the moment it would be possible for the US to win a total war with China, whereas a China with GDP per head approximating that of the West would be militarily unbeatable if it chose to throw its weight about.

  2. I think these hawks are wrong to think that the US could win a total war with China*.

    China could stomach about 1000 times the causalities than the US, without being forced to back down by its own populace. I don’t see how anybody can think about who would win what wars, without taking this into account.

    * other than some crazy we-all-lose but the US wins on paper nuclear war.

  3. Hmm. I think the reason Americans have so reluctant to incur military casualties is because they feel the wars their soldiers die in are pretty damn irrelevant to their own continued survival (whatever else Saddam may have planned, he wasn’t going to invade Iowa and install a military dictatorship).

    If there were a war between the US and China, I’m not so sure this would be the case. After a hostile foreign power showed it represented a serious threat to the US at Pearl Harbor, the US public were willing to take a lot more casualties in WWII than someone writing in 1930 would have predicted…

  4. It’s all utter bollocks, of course, Tim, as evidenced by the fact that in 1914 Germany was one of the UK’s biggest trading partners – but you just keep saying it and who knows? One day it might just come true.

    Now your keep eyes on the third star from the left and keep chanting, ‘If goods don’t cross borders, troops will…if goods don’t cross borders, troops will…if goods don’t cross borderws, troops will…”

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