Umm

John McCain was given a glimmer of hope in the latest polls as the presidential candidates entered a frenzied final 48-hours of campaigning.

Slightly wishful thinking perhaps?

I can\’t, at this point, see any way that McCain can win this election. Anyone else?

14 thoughts on “Umm”

  1. Ezra Levant has predicted a McCain win, and gives his reasons here. The bookies are calling it differently (Paddy Power has already paid out on an Obama win, I think).

    The only way a McCain win can happen is if the disconnect between the liberalism of the media and the American public is as great as some conservative commentators suggest. I doubt that’s the case.

  2. I shall hope against hope until the last vote is counted.

    Don’t forget that The Goblin King came out in favour of Obama Bin Laden, so you have to factor in The Curse Of Jonah.

  3. Paddy Power do it all the time. They get it wrong sometimes, like when they paid out on ‘Yes’ winning the Irish Lisbon Treaty vote in June. They had to pay out on ‘No’ too :D!

  4. QuestionThat,

    I suspect that someone at Paddy Power has done the numbers and figures that the potential PR gain is more than the loss * probability. How many people in the UK are actually betting on the US election?

  5. On the main point, Mason-Dixon have also shown similar results in NC and Missouri, and looking through old polls, their method seems to favour McCain more than other polls.

    It might be that they’re an outlier, or maybe they’re right and others are wrong.

  6. The opinion polls are often pretty inaccurate in the US: an article I read about it suggested that they are much less competent than the ones we get here, and ours are far from perfect.

  7. I’m not that fussed really as I find neither of them politically inspiring. I mean I’m interested, I just won’t be upset either way. Once Ron Paul dropped out, I stopped getting excited. That said I am curious about the backlash if Obama doesn’t win. All eyes on Chicago. That street party could turn nasty.

  8. He could still win. Not easily, but he looks like he’ll hold all the traditional reds bar Virginia, but can compensate with New Mexico and Pennsylvania (Obama’s promise to bankrupt the coal industry won’t do him any favors in Western Pennsylvania).

    Remember, it’s 50 State races, not a national one.

    There’ll be all sorts of wailing and gnashing of teeth if Obambi loses, of course. Egged on by the far left and their soul mates in the MSM.

    I’d say it’s 70/30 in favor of teh Obamateur™.

  9. Agreed, Martin, I think the media, especially the British media, underestimates how Republican the US is. There’s a helluvalot of Red-blooded folk in a helluvalot of States.

  10. It’s Monday about 6:30 Mountain Time, and the Iowa Electronic Market is showing about 13:1 as a fair bet for McCain.

    Obviously, not a good chance, but not zero either.

    As to Paddy Power, the articles at the time they cashed out indicated that they were having trouble getting anyone to take McCain at all – and if they can’t get the payout to split about 50/50 (or really 48/48) it doesn’t make sense for them to keep the betting open.

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