Another Greenpeace report

Lorne Stockman, the author of the report, said: \”A peak in oil demand was barely discussed even a year ago, but now it is a viable idea. When it happens, I wouldn\’t want to guess, but it will happen sooner than we thought. There has been lots of talk about a supply peak, but it is good to start talking about a demand peak, and that has huge implications for these companies.

Myself I\’m just fine with that. If there\’s a demand peak and then fewer people want to use the stuff…..leading to companies like Shell and BP having nothing to do….then that\’s just dandy.

As Ol\’ Adam pointed out, the reason for all production is consumption and if people don\’t want to consume what is being produced then don\’t produce it.

I would also, in a nod to our friend Mr. Murphy, point out that this is indeed included in the scenarios in the SRES. A move away from oil (no, not as a result of peak oil supply, but of peak oil demand) to other forms of energy generation. Indeed, there are two paths discussed, moving from oil to coal (which leads to some of the worst projections) and from oil to non-fossil fuels (which leads to some of the best).

And, please note, all scenarios in the SRES do not, (repeat, DO NOT) include any taxation, caps, bans or regulation to push such paths, they are all described as possible paths for the economy without such intervention.

Me, I tend to have the same opinion I\’ve had for the past decade or so, that the continuing fall in the cost of Solar PV is going to lead to us preferentially shifting to that technology over the next decade or two. If and when (as is already visible in some projections) Solar PV falls below the cost of coal generation at the point of consumption then why wouldn\’t we switch?

6 thoughts on “Another Greenpeace report”

  1. Because we live in the UK and the sun rarely shines enough to generate worthwhile amounts of power here. Tidal seems to me to be the only renewable which makes sense here…

  2. We will go nuclear, conventional pwr on a once through fuel cycle – perhaps dual (or even triple) reactor EPRs, giving a yummy 3GW.

  3. Its not just solar, they are all getting cheaper.

    Peak Demand is just another way of worrying, now that peak oil supply worries have disappeared with the recession.

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