# Hmm, I wonder?

This couple who have won a fortune on the euro lottery.

A couple who live near Cirencester.

I know a couple who live near Cirencester. Wonder if it\’s them?

Now, before you deride me as being entirely lunatic, the possibility that the winners are the couple I know who live near Cirencester is a great deal higher than the odds that all those lottery ticket buyers face when they buy a ticket.

I\’ve forgotten what the odds are for the euro lottery but they\’re a great deal higher than the 14 million to one or so for the UK one. You\’ve got to get more numbers you see.

Now Cirencester and environs isn\’t the most heavily populated area of the country. There might be, say, 50,000 people, perhaps 100,000 (with a wide definition of \”near\”).  Of whom not all are couples of course. Say, umm, just as a guess, one in 25,000? One in 10,000?

The only problem I can see with this is that the specific couple I\’m thinking of are most unlikely to be lottery ticket buyers in the first place…..

## 6 thoughts on “Hmm, I wonder?”

1. I’d also guess that lottery playing is lower in Cirencester than the average.

2. “The only problem I can see with this is that the specific couple I’m thinking of are most unlikely to be lottery ticket buyers in the first place”
Ah but how unlikely? 10 to 1? 1000 to 1? Still better odds…

3. The odds for winning are now irrelevant, aren’t they? It basically boils down to (as you say) how many couples there are on Cirencester (and around) and what proportion of tickets purchased by those couples your couple are likely to account for.

4. Are your friends Nigel Page, 43, and his partner Justine Laycock, 41? If so I’d get on down to Bath.

Tim adds: No: right ages (which lowers the odds even more) but no: which of course raises the odds again to infinity (or, umm, zero, but whatever….)