Fascinating stuff about the forests all disappearing

Judge sends in the actual paper that everyone\’s talking about in the papers this morning.

That one telling us that all of the tropical forests are going to disappear because of climate change a land use changes.

And Judge also notes something quite interesting. Look at the table on pg 7, Table 2.

It tells us how much is going to disappear because of climate change and how much because of land use. And it\’s mostly, in that table, claimate change that makes it all disappear.

Then on page 9 we\’ve got table S1. Which \”parallels\” Table 2 as they tell us. The difference is that here it\’s by country and in the first it was by major region.

But the effects are reversed. In S1 the effects are almost all from land use, not climate change.

So, err, which is it going to be folks? Poor people cutting down trees to grow runty corn? Or rich bastards burning coal?

And yes, it does matter. For their models all run one particular scenario:

World Climate Research Programme’s CMIP3 data driven
by the moderate-high SRES A2 greenhouse gas emission
scenario.

Oh….that\’s the capitalist but non-globalised one isn\’t it? The one where we get 16 billion not very rich people all living in localised and regionalised economies?

What else do we know about forests? Ah, yes, poor people cut them down and rich people plant them. So if we had an A1 world, one which gives us 7 billion much richer people (4 times richer each in fact) in a globalised economy we\’d, umm, have fewer poor people trying to cut down forests, wouldn\’t we?

Which makes it really rather important to understand what you\’re saying about whether it\’s climate change or land use changes which destroy the forests. If it\’s land use then the IPCC can already tell us the answer: save the forests through globalisation.

Sounds good to me.

BTW, if anyone can unscramble that bit about land use and climate change effects both Judge and I would be very grateful.

3 thoughts on “Fascinating stuff about the forests all disappearing”

  1. This is why we should be following the A1 scenario (as the Libertarian Party recommends), i.e. the Authoritarians, anti-globalistas etc can butt out and technology and markets drive change organically.

    Tim adds: The Libertarian Party has that policy because your leader reads this blog and has picked up said idea from this blog…..

  2. Brian, follower of Deornoth

    It is quite shocking the way the oak and beech forests of England have been devastated by land use and climate changes.

  3. Dear Tim,

    Thank you very much for bringing this to our attention. You are correct that in Table S1 the labels C and LU are switched. For example, the first row for country=”Brazil” should read:
    LU=4,LU+C=32,N=9,C=54

    We’ve contacted Conservation Letters and alerted them of this error.

    Our sincere apologies for any confusion this error may have caused,

    Scott Loarie

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