But worse, note the extraordinarily limited thinking on display. It is that of the rational economist which assumes that the future is entirely predictable on a probabilistic basis, that the past is a certain guide to the future and that uncertainty does not exist as a result. So, they argue, because for a while (and using selective evidence until 2008) a policy seemed to work in the Republic it is bound to work for Northern Ireland in the future. That, however, is not true. The world now is not what it was. An uncertain event happened. And therefore the past cannot predict what will happen – and most certainly Northern Ireland’s future cannot be predicted on the basis of the Republic’s past – although the risk that the Republic’s present might be reproduced is clearly significant.
Evidence? We don\’t need no steenkin\’ evidence!