On Greece leaving the euro

So this weekend there\’s all sorts of hush hush meetings going on and rumours that Greece is thinking about leaving the euro.

True or negotiating tactic? No, I dunno either.

Although thinking personally, if Greece leaves I can\’t imagine Portugal being far behind. Something which would be a bit of a mixed blessing: property owned here would plunge in value. But then income earned abroad and brought in would soar in said value.

So from my point of view, bit of a mixed bag: although it\’s clearly the right thing for the Portuguese economy.

5 thoughts on “On Greece leaving the euro”

  1. Hmm, Spiegel’s server down, Greek govt denies rumour…
    So it must be true?
    (These euro conspiracy theories are so much more fun than the UBL ones.)
    Anyway, Tim, we all knew this was bound to happen sometime. I’m in a different boat in the same storm. Germany uses the PIIGS as a lead weight on the zeppelin to keep the German currency from flying into the stratosphere and damaging their exports… but they’re not prepared to pay the deadbeats which supply the lead weight.
    France will presumably side with the North euro bloc, which means that the Neuro rises (good for me) but the French economy tanks (bad for me).
    Heigh ho, can’t say I didn’t warn myself.

  2. So Much For Subtlety

    The question is not if it is going to happen but how can we all make money out of it. After all, if a bunch of loons in power want to piss all our money away on the Euro, it is up to us to make the most out of it and perhaps get some of the cash back.

    So Greek and German bonds must be priced very differently these days. Must be time to try to do a little swap or the like on the off chance the Greek ones will be worth a whole lot less soon.

  3. So Much For Subtlety

    Actually there is probably a simpler way to make money out of this – our Host needs to refinance his house. If he takes out another mortgage now, it will be in Euros. Stick it in a bank in Germany or even better Lichtenstein.

    If Portugal stays, he can pay it back. If Portugal goes, his loan will be re-denominated in whatever currency the Portuguese use post-Euro, which will almost certainly go down. He can then use the money in Germany to pay off the loan and keep the balance.

    Either way he off sets the cost to him of the loss of value of his property. Just make sure to borrow from a State-owned bank.

  4. Stick it in a bank in Germany or even better Lichtenstein.

    The problem is that if they do this then it will be either as a European stitch-up or alternately if Portugal withdraw from the Euro unilaterally, the EU could decide to voluntarily repatriate all Euro denominated mortgages on Portuguese properties and savings and investments held by Portuguese residents at the prevailing (i.e. not good) rate.

    How da’ like them Novo Escudos matey?

  5. This is a bit off-topic, but relevant in my opinion – some people in Portugal are fuming that the Finns are being ‘selfish’ not wanting to contribute (aka being robbed blind) to pay the bailout of the Portuguese government.

    Others are dead against that kind of immoral philosophy, all-out irresponsibility, and baseless begging – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fPsEse46lc&feature=share

    Could you advise me on how to get the message across to the right Finn hands?

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