At the least, the court is expected to insist that the Bundestag has a veto on rescue packages, a gift to the populists as German bail-out fatigue turns to fury. A recent Allenbach poll found that 71pc of Germans now have \”little\” or \”no trust at all\” in the euro.
So, the German supreme court insists that the country\’s basic law means that the Bundestag must be able to vote on bailouts and the like.
One of other of such votes will undoubtedly be lost: recall, to keep it all together every vote has to be won, to pull it apart, only one has to be lost.
At which point, Germany leaves the euro.
Oh, sure, there\’s still massive debts everywhere, still defaults and all. However, the underlying basic problem, of Southern Europe not being competitive with Germany (and however many other states, like Holland etc, follow Germany into the New DMark) is solved, not by a devaluation in S Europe, but by a revaluation in N Europe. Growth begins again, debts shrink as a percentage of GP and as I say, problem solved.
Actually, if Germany would just get on with it and do this next weekend then it would all be over much sooner. For the basic underlying problem is simply that Germany, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, should not all be sharing the same currency and the same interest rate regime.
The solution is thus that they don\’t share the same currency and interest rate regime. Job done.