Timmy elsewhere

At the ASI.

Why we really don\’t want to try and build a great big computer model of the financial markets.

1 thought on “Timmy elsewhere”

  1. > trying to predict the weather. On one scale we can do that pretty well, it’ll be colder in winter than in summer

    Nope, that is climate, not weather.

    > Not being quite so sure ranging from believing that total feedback could be negative (an extreme view, true) through evens, to only increasing as a logarithm of CO2 levels to the consensus view of 2-4.5 oC.

    Also wrong, in that you’ve misbalanced it: there are far more scientists who believe in > 4.5oC than there are who believe in sensitivity We’re told the answer is that weather has interfered with climate which is just fine

    Good, glad to hear it. Again, not quite “weather” but never mind.

    > although it would have been more believable if

    Ah, so it isn’t believeable, then? Not so fine.

    > the modelling of large and complex, chaotic even, systems.

    A more interesting point. Weather is chaotic, but is climate? The statistics of a chaotic system (and climate is the statistics of weather) are not necessarily themselves chaotic. See-for-example http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2006/12/the_irrelevance_of_nonlinear_e.php

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