It\’s all really terribly fascinating. Onshore wind is nearly as cheap as natural gas right now and it will only get better over time!
Two huge economic failures.
1) They assume that wind will just keep on getting more efficient. But gas will just stay at current levels of efficiency. Yup, really. Windmill blades will get ever better, gas turbine blades won\’t. I can prove anything with this sort of assumption.
2) They really do say that onshore wind is now largely competitive with natural gas generation. And that it really really will be in only a few years.
However, the one suggestion they do not make is that we should stop all subsidies now and then, as and if, it really really is cheaper we go build the damn things then.
Which is very much an economic error. For none at all of the things which are making onshore wind cheaper have anything at all to do with installation in the UK. It\’s expanding world base that does and as any economist wil happily tell you such improvements in technology are a public good. If someone else is paying for them then you get to enjoy them for free.
Well, you still have to pay for the turbine but that the 2018 one is actually cost efficient but the 2012 one isn\’t is something you get for free off everyone else\’s subsidies.
And, sadly, that they do not say this means that I don\’t think that even they believe their statement about onshore wind being competitive.