Bit of a stretch, surely?

The shape of British summers to come?

It\’s been a dull, damp few months and some scientists think we need to get used to it. Melting ice in Greenland could be bringing permanent changes to our climate

Island in North Atlantic has rain in summer.

Climate change proven.

Bit of a stretch isn\’t it?

And how do you explain the Irish bleedin\’ weather for the past 5 millennia with that idea?

23 thoughts on “Bit of a stretch, surely?”

  1. And how do they explain pretty much every entry relating to the British summer in any dictionary of quotations you care to mention?

  2. When we have cold winters with snow which contradicts the “mild wet winters” narrative it is “just weather”.

    I thought global warming meant that we would have hot summers? Now cool wet summers mean global warming as well?

  3. And climate change *is* already proven; you just have to look at the temperature record (cue your usual bunch of wackos). Its just that this particular aspect isn’t proven, and no-one apart from you is suggesting it is.

  4. You’re the same William M. Connolley that was barred from editing contributions on Wikipedia for zealotry regarding Climate Change?

  5. I thought Tim already believed in climate change…

    Anyway this is an elementary English comprehension failure. The question addressed is not whether the current British weather proves climate change, but what impact climate change is having/will have on the British weather.

  6. “could be” does not imply or equate to “proven”.

    No it doesn’t but we all know that’s how it will be put across, just like all the dire predictions of permanent drought of a few years ago. When the next prolonged dry period turns up no doubt the narrative will switch back again. It’s this kind of dishonesty and the failure of climate scientists to correct it or even to be much concerned that causes many of us who would otherwise be inclined to accept the evidence for AGW cynical and increasingly sceptical.

  7. Ok but this summer in Italy is exceptionally hot and dry as was last year.

    I am a MMGW sceptic as it happens but the last 3or 4 summers have been horrendous (ie it doesn’t rain for months on end)

    I don’t remember it being so bad when I first moved here (scientific eh?)

  8. Um, didn’t the ‘global climate models’ tell us back in the early 00s that Britain was going to bask in boiling hot summers, people were going to die in their thousands from heatstroke, that the South of England would be like the South of France, grapes would be grown in Yorkshire etc etc?

    All that doesn’t happen (the complete opposite actually – colder and wetter summers), and somehow that proves ‘global warming’ (or ‘climate change’ change is its branded nowadays) is correct?

    Do these people think we are complete morons?

  9. The MetOffice regional climate models predict warmer drier summers and milder but wetter winters; and it was on this basis that the MetO responded to the Quarmby enquiry on transport resilience to harsh winters.

    And from the early nineties onwards, voila, the British climate played along with this narrative. To such a degree that it was regularly rolled out as “proof” of GW. One prof even contributed an article to the Observer about the tragedy of British kids missing out on their snowy winters.

    This all changed in 2007 when the jet stream shifted south (after years of inching ever northwards, again used as evidence of GW) and suddenly we seemed to have a regime of colder but drier winters and cooler soggier summers.

    So what’s up? We can’t forecast future climate! Our regional forecasts are not skilful. GCM’s appeared to be able to hindcast global means for the last 160 years (but not the other three moments: standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis), and I understand that skill will decrease for AR5. Our models are too stable to explain paleoclimate data.

    No big deal, science doesn’t have to have all the answers; except that’s exactly what scientists on the climate debate seem to do, they are desperate to link our day to day weather and climate with the global warming narrative: record freeze, climate change; monsoon summer, climate change; forest fires: climate change. To such a degree that we can’t trust them any more. After all if science makes predictions and the polar opposite occurs and is still proclaimed proof, then its not a science, it’s a cargo cult.

  10. Several correspondents have nailed this correctly. The models rolled out are continually foiled and made a mockery of. The semantic shift from Global warming to Climate Change gave he game away.

    Besides which, as Tim and the superb Bjorn Lomborg point out, it’s not the scientists themselves that are the main problem. It’s environmentalists and other political bodies advocating a switch to Socialist economics as result of this nebulous phenomenon. Scratch a Geeen and you reveal a core of solid Red which, having seen it’s alma mater the USSR collapse under the weight of its own idiocy in 1991 have seized on this as a means to exert their control over people. As Jim says (9/)

    ‘do these people think we’re complete morons?’

    Answer is -Yes they do, and due to their total control over the education system, they have been remarkably successful in generating enough morons to believe in the lie. Look at the posts of Arnald on this blog if you want evidence of how moronic some people are.

  11. > Um, didn’t the ‘global climate models’ tell us back in the early 00s that Britain was going to bask in boiling hot summers,

    Not that I know of. Got any references?

    > The MetOffice regional climate models predict warmer drier summers and milder but wetter winters

    {{cn}}

    > do these people think we’re complete morons?

    I think you’re incapable of backing your assertions with facts, and too lazy to bother look up any references.

    So, since you’re all too lazy to bother look this up. I’ll do it for you. See http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-11-5.html

    And we see… well, the obvious: Southern England is far too small an area to make predictions for.

    Mind you, that’s for diffs out to 2080-2099, not present.

  12. @William Connolley: Here’s typical one from less than 10 years ago:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4091068.stm

    Climate conference predicting hotter drier UK summers, south of UK going to a Mediterranean climate within 50 years.

    Why should we believe any ‘climate expert’ when their past predictions are 180 degrees opposed to the outcome?

  13. The British climate is highly unusual for its latitude, being strongly influenced by ocean and atmospheric currents. The effect on it of global warming will therefore not be straightforward; it’s plausible that a moderate degree of global warming would make Britain warmer and a larger degree of global warming would make it cooler.

    It’s unscientific to argue that any given weather event is good evidence for or against global warming. However, no intelligent person who makes an honest study of the science can doubt that AGW has occurred, howsoever sceptical they may be (unless sceptical means “willing to believe any tosh opposing AGW”, as sometimes it does).

  14. “However, no intelligent person who makes an honest study of the science can doubt that some global warming has occurred in the last 150 years”

    Fixed your post for you.

  15. William

    You know full well what points are being made here: scientists use models and speculation to link weather and synoptic patterns to global warming, and they do so to such an extent that practically anything can be “taken as proof” of global warming.

    That was the purpose of the Guardian article, to say “don’t worry, our cool soggy summer” is still consistent with global warming. George Monbiot wrote an article in January 2011 saying our freezing winter was also what global warming looks like. And numerous scientists, like Peter Stott, will step up to the plate, to convey the same message.

    You nit-pick to avoid engaging with the subject honestly.

  16. @Gary Moran
    I’d be prepared to engage more with this sort of thing if I’d not been told for the last ten years that summers would be warmer and drier, and winters would be warmer and wetter. First we’re told that weather is not climate and just wait, it’ll go back to the rapid warming. Then, when we have a number of years where the weather won’t play along, the story changes and we’re told that the weather we have now is the weather we can expect because of AGW.

    There’s no evidence that climate models have any skill in predicting regional climate change (peer reviewed evidence). According to the IPCC there’s insufficient evidence to link extreme weather to AGW.

    I have become cynical and sceptical even though I accept that CO2 is a ghg and is having an effect.

  17. “Melting ice in Greenland could be bringing permanent changes to our climate”

    It’s always a one way street, isn’t it? First we’re told that our actions are causing the change, next that the change “could be” (weasel words) permanent.

    If all outcomes are adduced to a hypothesis then it is a) unfalsifiable and b) of no predictive value. And it ain’t a theory.

  18. Come on William Connolley, are you saying the UK government is lying when it says summers will be hotter and drier under ‘climate change’, or are you being economical with the truth when you say our current cold and wet summer is proof that climate change is happening?

    They can’t both be true. If ‘the science’ says UK summers get hotter and drier, our current cold wet one (wettest for 100 years I think) is a (small) indication ‘the science’ might be wrong. If on the other hand colder wetter summers are indeed proof of ‘climate change’ then all those scientists predicting the opposite must be wrong.

    Take your pick.

  19. are you being economical with the truth when you say our current cold and wet summer is proof that climate change is happening?

    WC said absolutely nothing of the sort.

    As I said, it’s hard to reach any conclusion about climate change from observations of the weather in Britain. It’s more informative to look at the USA, but even there one month doesn’t prove anything.

  20. Not sure why people “Think” we have had “Cool” summers when not much has changed since 1999.
    Have a look at some real data rather than “thinking” you know something.

    The last two years have seen been a little colder than average but nothing extreme. I looked at Every June between 1999 and 2012. It ranged between 15 and 19 mean average but was quite random each year.
    http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/EGHI/2012/7/8/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
    Yes we may have had more cloud and rainfall (possibly because a recorded increase in sea temperature can cause more precipitation) Unfortunately we humans only seem to call it “hot” if we feel direct radiant heat from the sun on our skin. And that is why I still need sunshine.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *